Stuckey & Wilson: Saturday’s Best College Football Moneyline Underdogs to Bet in Week 14
Billie Weiss/Getty Images. Pictured: QB Phil Jurkovec (#5) and Boston College celebrate after a win.
- Looking for some moneyline value on Saturday's college football slate? Look no further.
- Stuckey and Collin Wilson have broken down their favorite moneyline underdogs from today's slate, including Auburn and Boston College.
- Check out Stuckey and Wilson's full breakdowns below.
Each week on The Action Network Colleges Podcast, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each Saturday’s college football slate.
We had two stinkers last week with UNC and Mississippi State, so it’s time for a bounce back. With only four more opportunities (including championship weekend) this year, let’s finish strong, starting with two Saturday afternoon underdogs in Week 14.
- 2018-19: 29-47 +4.00 units
- 2020: 8-16 +0.30 units
If you’re feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of both pays out over 6-1 odds.
Wilson: Auburn +185
- Spread: Texas A&M -5.5
- Over/Under: 68
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 5
- Time: Noon ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Auburn, AL
The College Football Playoff committee insists that the offensive difference between Ohio State and Texas A&M dictates their respective rankings. The Aggies scored just 20 points in sloppy conditions against a reeling LSU team, highlighting an offense that ranks outside the top 80 in Explosiveness and 76th in Offensive Finishing Drives.
Frankly, this Aggies team just doesn’t have enough offensive flash to hang with the top offenses in the nation, much less to ever come back from a two-score deficit.
The Aggies will take on an Auburn team looking to get off the mat after a trouncing in the Iron Bowl. The offensive line was dominated, Tank Bigsby was pedestrian and Seth Williams had a crucial drop that would have served as a covering score.
The Tigers did not execute through the air against an Alabama team that ranks among the top 10 in the nation in pass coverage. That should change once the Aggies come to town, as they sit at 57th in pass coverage, per Pro Football Focus.
Auburn has dominated this series of late, with Gus Malzahn taking four of the last five games against Texas A&M. Although Jordan-Hare will not be full capacity, it’s still a tough place to play. The Tigers have won 13 of their past 15 at home. Bo Nix has always looked much more comfortable in the friendly confines of Jordan-Hare, while the opposite holds true for Kellen Mond.
Although Auburn is still dealing with injuries on the offensive line and Bigsby is still questionable, there’s reason to believe Nix can have success against a vulnerable Texas A&M secondary.
While the Auburn third-down defense is also a concern against a very efficient TAMU third-down offense, it holds an advantage in Line Yards, tackling, special teams and pass explosiveness. That should give the Tigers an opportunity to pull off the upset, which would make the decision on Texas A&M for the College Football Playoff committee much easier.
Stuckey: Boston College +155
- Spread: Virginia -4
- Over/Under: 55
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 5
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: CHSS
- Location: Charlottesville, VA
I’m a big fan of Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley, who has done a tremendous job in his first year after coming over from Ohio State. His quarterback Phil Jurkovec, who transferred from Notre Dame, has also quietly had an extremely productive year.
Jurkovec has thrown for over 2,500 yards on the season with 17 touchdowns to just five interceptions. He’s also been tremendous under pressure, which is key for two reasons:
- Boston College’s offensive line hasn’t been great in pass protection
- Virginia defense gets a ton of pressure (13th in Sack Rate)
Jurkovec has had more dropbacks under pressure than any other quarterback in the country, with 157. And in those situations, he has eight touchdowns and zero interceptions with a QB Rating of 106.1, which ranks 11th out of 99 FBS quarterbacks (just behind Zach Wilson and Ian Book) with at least 100 dropbacks on the season.
When it comes to Virginia, I’m just not as high on the Hoos as the market. After dropping four straight games, including blowout losses at the hands of Wake Forest and NC State, Virginia has reeled off three straight victories.
However, that stretch isn’t nearly as impressive when you take a closer look under the hood.
One of those victories came against Abilene Christian. Another came against Louisville, which was missing its two best offensive weapons and seven key players overall due to COVID-19. Yet the Cardinals still outgained the Cavaliers by over 100 total yards and averaged 7.9 yards per play (to Virginia’s 5.7) in a rather unlucky loss.
The other win came against UNC in a 44-41 shootout. That was certainly impressive, but UVA was once again outgained by more than 100 yards and benefited from turnovers and a perfect conversion rate on four fourth down attempts. The Heels also averaged 8.8 yards per play to UVA’s 5.6.
It’s also worth noting that Virginia lost star linebacker and captain Charles Snowden to a broken ankle in its last game. He’s not only the team sack leader, but the vocal leader on a defense that also may still be without both starting safeties.
I make this closer to a coin flip, so will gladly take BC with the points and on the moneyline here after hearing positive reports on both Jukovec and running back David Bailey, who got dinged up last week.