Stuckey & Wilson: Best College Football Underdogs to Bet on the Moneyline in Week 5
Troy Wayrynen, USA Today Sports.
- Don't forget to sprinkle some moneyline underdogs into your college footballs picks for Week 5.
- Our college football experts give their two favorite moneyline underdog bets for Saturday.
As we do each week on The Action Network Colleges Podcast, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs on Saturday’s college football slate.
I finally got us to the window last week with Louisiana, while Collin came up just short with San Diego State. We’ve hit one of two for four weeks straight, which will always bring home some profit, but it’s time to hit both soon for the people’s parlay.
For Week 4, I’m somehow going with an afternoon game involving a MAC team for the third straight week (luckily it’s not Akron), and Collin’s pick kicks off in primetime.
If you’re feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of both pays over 4-1 at current odds.
- 2018: 16-28 +3.95 units
- 2019: 4-4 +3.10 units
Stuckey: Toledo +120 (vs. BYU)
- Spread: BYU -2.5
- Over/Under: 60.5
- Location: Toledo, OH
- Time: Noon ET
- TV: ESPN+
I’m rolling with the Rockets in the Glass Bowl in what looks like a horrid spot for BYU.
BYU looked absolutely gassed last week against Washington and who can blame the Cougars after starting the season with games against Utah, Tennessee, USC and Washington — two of which went to overtime.
The Cougars were the only team in the country to start out the season with four straight Power 5 opponents.
Additionally, in that game last week, BYU lost two starters for the season, one on each side of the ball: running back Ty’Son Williams and linebacker Zayne Anderson.
Toledo possesses an explosive rushing attack, led by quarterback Mitch Guadagni and running back Bryant Koback, who ran for 228 yards and three touchdowns on just 19 carries last week against Colorado State.
The Rockets are averaging 6.7 yards per carry, which ranks fifth in the nation. I expect that ground game to have more success on Saturday against a BYU defense that’s allowed 4.7 yards per rush this season (102nd nationally). It’s a defense vulnerable to efficient rushing attacks.
BYU desperately needs a bye week, which it will fortunately get next week. It wouldn’t shock me if BYU came out swinging but I think the Cougs ultimately wear down in the second half. A noon kick at Toledo is a tough ask after the gauntlet they’ve gone through to start the year.
Meanwhile, Toledo comes in much fresher and healthier as a result of an early season bye week and a win over a cupcake in Week 2 against Murray State. I think the Rockets get it done.
Wilson: Oregon State +135 (vs. Stanford)
- Spread: Stanford -3
- Over/Under: 56
- Location: Corvallis, OR
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: PACN
First of all, our power ratings project this game at a PK, so there’s value right off the bat with the Beavers moneyline.
It’s also an ideal spot for Oregon State after a bye week taking on a beat up Stanford squad fresh off games against USC, Central Florida and Oregon.
I think the Beavers can have some success on the ground with a now healthy Jermar Jefferson at running back. He’ll be running behind an offensive line that ranks 12th in Line Yards and 21st in Opportunity Rate, per Football Outsiders. Jefferson will be going against a Stanford defense that ranks 93rd in the country with 11 rushing plays of 30-plus yards allowed.
That offensive front has also been protecting quarterback Jake Luton when he drops back to throw. They rank 12th nationally in Sack Rate. It’s one of the reasons the Beavers have only turned the ball over once all season.
And on the other side of the ball, quarterback KJ Costello won’t play for the Cardinal. Stanford has also had to patch together an offensive line after losing start left tackle Walker Little. It will also likely be without left guard Devery Hamilton on Saturday, which means Stanford will be starting a fifth different offensive line combination in five games to start the season.
Oregon State should ultimately be able to better sustain drives with an offensive line that’s in much better shape. The Beavers rank 16th in the country in third down conversion percentage, while Stanford’s defense ranks 113th.
I think the Beavers get it done in their Pac-12 opener.