Texas vs. West Virginia Picks & Odds
- Spread: Texas -10.5
- Over/Under: 61.5
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
- Location: Morgantown, West Virginia
Odds as of Monday at 5:20 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Collin's Angle: Injuries Will Matter
Both West Virginia and Texas come off a bye week, but how much of that extra rest did Tom Herman use to install packages for the Red River Showdown?
The Longhorns are on overlook to their rival, a game that will more than likely determine an entry to the Big 12 Championship Game in Arlington.
Texas has laundry list of injuries on both sides of the ball. The entire secondary is out or questionable, including safety Caden Sterns. Defensive backs Jalen Green and Josh Thompson have been ruled out, while DeMarvion Overshown is questionable with a back issue. Offensively, the Longhorns will be without their best weapon on the outside in Collin Johnson.
Our power ratings have this game at 13.5, but with injuries to Texas, the number is spot on.
But so far this season, West Virginia has been sneaky good at explosive plays on both sides of the ball. The Mountaineers have allowed just two rushes and eight passes over 20 yards this season. The Mountaineers are best in the Big 12 against explosive passing, which may have Sam Ehlinger running on third down.
The Longhorns' loss of Johnson on the outside in correlation with the Mountaineers stinginess against long passes could equal plenty of long drives with double digits in plays.
Considering Texas has the second-worst explosive rush numbers in the conference, this game may have upset potential.
Pick: West Virginia +11
Stuckey: This Is a Great Situational Spot
The clear and obvious situational angle here is Texas being caught flat in Morgantown with a potential lookahead to the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma next weekend. Meanwhile, West Virginia is coming off a bye for what will be the biggest home game of the year for the Mountaineers. Milan Puskar Stadium should be rocking with horns down signs throughout.
And that narrative has actually played out in the past. If you recall, just last year, Texas barely pulled out a win at Kansas State 19-14 but failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites.
And over the past 20 years, the Longhorns are just 5-14-1 ATS the week before playing Oklahoma. And they’ve only covered once in the past 10 years.
Texas has had some absolute clunkers in that span. Here are a few of those:
- 2016: lost 49-31 at Oklahoma State as 2.5-point underdogs
- 2015: lost 50-7 as 14-point underdogs at TCU.
- 2012: lost 48-45 at home vs. WVU as 7.5-point favorites
- 2010: lost to UCLA 34-12 at home as 15.5-point favorites
- 2007: Lost 41-21 at home as 14.5-point favorites against Kansas State
- 2002: won 17-15 at home against Oklahoma State as 25.5-point favorites
- 1999: lost at home 35-17 to KSU as 6.5-point favorites
In regards to the actual game, Texas just has so many injuries, especially in its secondary, which will even up the matchup on the field. West Virginia has certainly struggled in many areas this year but it can build on two straight wins over Power 5 teams prior to the bye week.
I think Texas probably finds a way to win but it wouldn’t shock me if we added another clunker to the list above. I’d roll with the Mountaineers at anything 10 or above.
