2021 NFL Win Totals Tracker: More Teams Finish Under Than Over

2021 NFL Win Totals Tracker: More Teams Finish Under Than Over article feature image

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Dak Prescott.

2021 NFL Win Totals Tracker

Preseason odds via DraftKings, updated Jan. 9 before Sunday Night Football.

Team Win Total Wins Difference
Chiefs 12.5 12 L
Bucs 12 13 W
Ravens 11 8 L
Bills 11 11 Push
Browns 10.5 8 L
Rams 10.5 12 W
49ers 10.5 10 L
Packers 10 13 W
Seahawks 10 7 L
Patriots 9.5 10 W
Chargers 9.5 9 ?
Dolphins 9.5 9 L
Colts 9 9 Push
Cowboys 9 12 W
Titans 9 12 W
Saints 9 9 Push
Vikings 8.5 8 L
Steelers 8.5 9 W
Broncos 8.5 7 L
Cardinals 8.5 11 W
Washington 8.5 7 L
Panthers 7.5 5 L
Bears 7.5 6 L
Falcons 7.5 7 L
Giants 7 4 L
Raiders 7 9 W
Bengals 6.5 10 W
Eagles 6.5 9 W
Jaguars 6.5 3 L
Jets 6 4 L
Lions 4.5 3 L
Texans 4 4 Push

NFL win totals are just about decided for 2021, minus the Chargers.

So far, there have been:

  • 16 unders
  • 11 overs
  • 4 pushes

The five teams with the lowest win totals all went under or pushed, while just one team among the five highest totals went over.

Preseason Updates

September 8 Update

Most of the movement at this point in the season is related to the price you have to pay on either side. However, the Minnesota Vikings saw their total dip from 9 wins to 8.5.

Other movement includes the San Francisco 49ers flipping from -115 on the over to -115 on the under, Chargers under dropping from -135 to -110, the Bills over going to -130 from -110 and the Bears under rising to -120 from -110.

The other significant juice move was on the Jaguars, whose under went from -110 on 6.5 wins to -150.

August 23: Colts Dip Half a Win

The NFL win totals market has been pretty settled for the last month, as no team at DraftKings has actually seen its win total move (just the juice). Except for the Colts, that is.

This side of Green Bay, Indy has probably had the most newsworthy training camp. Carson Wentz was originally expected to miss the start of the regular season, as was All-Pro offensive guard Quenton Nelson. Their win total dropped from 9.5 to 9 as a result. But the pair is expected to return to practice this week.

The juice has shifted on a handful of teams over the last few months, including the Titans and Packers. Green Bay makes sense given the return of Aaron Rodgers and the ensuing hype, but bettors just can’t get enough of Tennessee, which has won at least nine games in each of the last five seasons.

July 27: Packers Back on Board

The NFL’s longest saga of 2021 appears to be close to its end.

News broke on Monday that Aaron Rodgers will likely return to the Packers this season, though his future beyond that is unclear.

DraftKings has had Green Bay’s win total off the board since the NFL Draft, when we first found out that Rodgers could be on his way out. The sportsbook also had other NFC North win totals off the board.

Tuesday, DK re-opened with the Packers at 10 wins — tied with the Seahawks for eighth most in the NFL.

July 16 Update: Packers Come Off the Board on Rodgers News

Well, NFL win totals at DraftKings got quite the shakeup, but not for the usual reasons, like heavy betting action on certain sides.

DK bought odds provider SB Tech earlier this year, and integrated their odds into its platform in early July. DraftKings had previously used Kambi, which is why you see similar odds there and at books like Bet Rivers and Unibet. They’re also Kambi customers.

So DK’s odds got a pretty big shakeup in the last week. The Packers remain off the board thanks to speculation about Aaron Rodgers, though the other three teams in their division have been relisted.

Notable moves:

Cleveland Browns

The Browns jumped from 10 to 10.5, moving ahead of a big glut of teams in the 9.5 and 10 range. The over is juiced on that 10.5 at -120, as well, as Cleveland looks to make the postseason for a second consecutive year.

Dallas Cowboys & Tennessee Titans

The Cowboys and Titans were two teams to move down after the odds provider switch, each going from 9.5 to 9.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos have been a popular speculative target for Rodgers, so they’re probably getting a little more credit in the market than what we’d see on the field should the star quarterback not get traded there. Denver fell from 9 wins to 8.5.

New York Jets

The Jets had the third-lowest win total of any team, and fell even further, from 6.5 to 6, with the under even juiced to -120.

May 4 Update: Broncos Make Big Jump

After the dust has settled from the NFL Draft, most teams are back on the board (minus the Packers) and speculation played a big part in win total movement.

The Broncos jumped from 7.5 wins to 9 wins at DraftKings because of rumors that Aaron Rodgers may be headed to Denver. The team also traded for Teddy Bridgewater to bolster its quarterback room should Rodgers not end up there.

Two other NFC North teams — the Vikings and Bears — also saw action toward their overs with Chicago moving from 7 to 7.5 wins. The Packers are still off the board at DraftKings with Rodgers’ future uncertain.

The Browns also ticked up from 9.5 wins to 10, while the Texans fell from 4.5 to 4 wins.

April 29 Update

The drama never stops in the NFL, it seems. After news of Aaron Rodgers being disgruntled dropped on Thursday afternoon, DraftKings pulled down win totals for all four NFC North teams.

Rodgers reportedly wants out of Green Bay, and was told he’d be traded in the offseason before the team backed off.

Sources: The Packers reportedly told Aaron Rodgers they were going to trade him in the off season, then backed off. It’s been a bleep show between them ever since. And within the last week Rodgers told the team.. trade or no trade I’m not coming back. Buckle up folks

— trey wingo (@wingoz) April 29, 2021

The NFC North teams of course each play the Packers twice, so sportsbooks wanting to play it safe pulled those win totals down on Thursday afternoon. A Rodgers-less Green Bay team could have a massive impact on win totals, division odds and Super Bowl odds.

As for the rest of the teams, well, there don’t seem to be many people interested in betting unders.

While no win totals have actually moved, the juice for many teams has shifted toward the over, including the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Bills, three teams with among the highest win totals in the NFL.

The usual suspects are all at the top of the board, including those three, the Packers, Ravens, Rams and Colts. Those seven — plus the 49ers, who finished 6-10 but were banged up all season — are the only teams with double-digit win totals.

One of the biggest movers has been the Seahawks, with their over 9.5 moving from -110 to -143 over the last month.

Further down the board, bettors are fading both the Jets and Jaguars at 6.5 wins, moving their prices each about 10 cents. Those may seem like slam-dunk unders, but keep in mind that the schedule is moving to 17 games.

With the schedule expanding to 17 games, remember that there are now 272 total wins up for grabs next season. As always, there are more wins in these markets collectively than actual wins available — 272.5 in this case, because bettors usually flock to overs and don’t mind taking a little bit of a hit in probability.

March 29 Update

DraftKings is treating NFL bettors to a mid-spring gift: The sportsbook posted win totals for the 2021 season on Monday.

With the league reportedly expected to approve expanding the season from 16 to 17 games at this week’s meetings, which take place virtually on Tuesday and Wednesday, it appears that DraftKings has already factored the additional game into these win totals.

There are few surprises on the board.

The Kansas City Chiefs sit alone at the very top with 12 wins, immediately followed by the reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 11.5 wins. The Detroit Lions and Houston Texans bookend the totals with the lowest of the 32 teams at 5 and 4.5 wins, respectively.

In all, there are eight teams listed with double-digit totals, all of which went to the playoffs last season … expect the 49ers. They followed up their Super Bowl appearance at the end of the 2019 season with an injury-riddled 6-10 season in 2020. Now with Jimmy Garoppolo back from injury and the Niners’ trading up to the third overall pick of April’s draft — where they’re expected to draft one of the top quarterback prospects — things are looking up in San Francisco.

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