Best 49ers-Packers MNF Player Props: Marquise Goodwin Over/Under 44.5 Receiving Yards?
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marquise Goodwin
- There are two props offering betting value in the Monday Night Football game between the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).
- This piece will analyze the following prop bets: Packers RB Aaron Jones over/under 51.5 rushing yards and 49ers WR Marquise Goodwin over/under 44.5 receiving yards.
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There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the San Francisco 49ers-Green Bay Packers matchup on Monday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
All odds as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Monday.
Packers RB Aaron Jones
The pick: Over 51.5 rushing yards (-114 @ BetOnline)
This backfield has been a clear time-share situation over the past few weeks, and it’s certainly a tough matchup against a 49ers defense that ranks 10th in rush DVOA.
The San Francisco front has also allowed the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game (78.2) so far this season.
However, our projections think this line has adjusted for those factors too much at 51.5. Jones has by far the most upside in this backfield, so he’s clearly the most likely to have success on a limited amount of touches.
His 5.8 True Yards Per Carry — an efficiency metric that discounts all runs of 10+ yards — is sixth-best in the NFL this year.
Jones has averaged 8.0 rush attempts per game this season, if that spikes even a little bit due to the predicted game script — the Packers are 9-point home favorites — Jones looks like a reasonable over target tonight.
This over received a 7 out of 10 on Fantasy Labs’ props tool.
49ers WR Marquise Goodwin
The pick: Under 44.5 receiving yards (-114 @ BetOnline)
The Packers defensive line currently ranks third in adjusted sack rate, while the 49ers offensive line ranks 29th. In other words, it’s a huge mismatch at the line of scrimmage, and C.J. Beathard will likely be under siege all night.
Pressure can have a negative effect on an entire offense, of course, but it most heavily impacts deep routes.
In a small sample of seven targets, Dante Pettis leads the 49ers with 32 yards per catch, but he is out for Week, 6. Meanwhile, Goodwin — who has averaged 16.3 yards per reception in his career — is likely to have the same issues.
Goodwin has also been banged up with a quad injury, but he is expected to make his return this week.
In an admittedly tough game for player props, targeting the under for a deep threat who is unlikely to get enough time to get downfield is as good a bet as any on the board.
This under received a 7 out of 10 on Fantasy Labs’ props tool.