Brett Maher Extra Point Props: Bet on Cowboys Kicker to Miss?
Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Brett Maher.
After Brett Maher missed a NFL-record four extra points on Wild Card Weekend, a few books have decided to take the opportunity to offer prop bets on his miscues.
BetRivers is offering an “Oops I Did it Again” bet on Maher missing an extra point at +250. It’s important to note, this bet voids if he does not attempt one.
Meanwhile, SuperBook has both a “yes” and a “no” side on whether Maher will miss an extra point. The yes comes in at +500, while the no is -700. In this case, the yes odds are longer because there’s no stipulation that Maher must attempt an extra point.
Is there any value on either side? Let’s take a look.
Brett Maher Kicking Prop Projections
Our Predictive Analytics team’s projections — which combine both Sean Koerner’s and my kicking models — give Maher an average of 2.03 extra point attempts with 1.92 made.
As a result, we project Maher to miss an extra point just 10.9% of the time. In fact, there’s a 13.1% chance he doesn’t even attempt an extra point. That means there’s a 24% chance he misses an extra point if he attempts at least one.
Using the 24% number, the fair odds on him missing an extra point so long as he attempts at least one is +315. That means there’s no value on the BetRivers prop.
For the SuperBook prop, fair odds on Maher to miss an extra point regardless of whether he attempts one or not is +814, according to our projections. Thus, there’s actually value on the “no” side at SuperBook.
However, it’s impossible to factor in whether the yips Maher experienced last weekend are part of a longer lasting effect for him.
If you think so, then there’s likely no value on the SuperBook prop on either the “yes” or “no” side. However, the BetRivers “yes” bet suddenly becomes more enticing.
It’s a pure gamble either way.