John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: BC Lions quarterback Travis Lulay
A simple strategy for betting the CFL is to take early season underdogs. Since 2005, all dogs are 501-428-17 (53.9%) ATS. In June and July, when oddsmakers know the least about each team, dogs are 156-101-5 (60.7%) ATS.
It is a straightforward approach to betting the spread in the Canadian Football League that has a large sample size and consistent results. Want more commonsense betting theories? Using Bet Labs, I’ve found a profitable over/under CFL system with matches for three games in Week 3.
Casual bettors are more likely to bet the over than the under, which leads to value on the under. Since 2005, the under in the CFL is 512-430-11 (54.4%). It is easier for a game to go under if there is a high total. Over that same span, the under is 250-182-5 (57.9%) in games with totals of 52.5 or higher.
I told you it was a simple commonsense betting strategy. Here are the three games that match in Week 3.
Calgary Stampeders vs. Ottawa Redblacks (Thursday, 9 p.m. ET): At the time of publication 70% of tickets have been placed on the under. Since 2005, approximately one in 10 games receives 60% or more of bets on the under. When that happens, the under is 62-43-2 (59.0%).
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (Friday, 7 p.m. ET): The Bombers-Cats total is the highest on the board at 58. The higher the total, the easier it is for the under to hit. In games with totals of 57 or greater, the under is 43-24-1 (64.2%) since 2005.
Edmonton Eskimos vs. BC Lions (Friday, 10 p.m. ET): The total for this game opened 54.5 and has been bet up to 55.5. Sharps must know something we don’t. Maybe not. Following this system, when the total increases by 0.5 a point or more, the under has been more profitable going 113-78-2 (59.2%).