In addition to my three PrizePicks plays for tonight, I have bets on the three preseason games, as well.
Let's get straight into my NFL predictions.
Colts vs Ravens Over/Under Pick
This is a game where both teams are taking very different approaches. The Colts are still sorting out their Week 1 starting QB, so they plan to play their starters for around a quarter and a half. Anthony Richardson will get the start before giving way to Daniel Jones. They are expected to flip that order next week. The second half should feature Riley Leonard, with Jason Bean potentially cleaning up late.
On the other side, the Ravens are resting their starters. Cooper Rush will start and likely play into the second half before turning things over to Devin Leary.
The Colts have a clear edge in this matchup, especially early on. That said, the market has already adjusted, and they are big favorites both in the first half and full game.
I’m a bit skeptical that the Colts will light up the scoreboard. Both Richardson and Jones are known more for their athleticism than their passing, and the Colts have a three-way competition for the RB2 role behind Jonathan Taylor. That could lead to a run-heavy game script with the clock moving quickly. The Ravens may be sitting key defenders, but they’ll likely give reps to rookies Malaki Starks (1st round), Mike Green (2nd round), and Teddye Buchanan (4th round). All three could help slow down the Colts enough to keep this game from getting out of hand.
This will also be the debut of new Colts DC Lou Anarumo, who came over from the Bengals. While we might not see all of his complex disguises and pressure looks in preseason, he’ll still want to set the tone early. That should be easy enough against Cooper Rush and the Ravens’ backups. Once Devin Leary enters, things could get ugly. Leary was arguably the worst QB in last year’s preseason. Among 58 QBs with 25+ dropbacks:
- PFF Grade: 58th
- QB Rating: 58th
- Yards per Attempt: 58th
- Turnover-worthy play rate: dead last
Pretty impressive if you ask me.
All in all, I’m projecting this to be a lower scoring game than the market implies. The current total of 37.5 is a key number for preseason, and I love being on the side of 0–37 here. I would still play it at 36.5, but locking in 37.5 gives us a valuable edge.
Pick: Under 37.5 (-118)
Bengals vs Eagles Potential Play
This is another game where the teams are taking very different approaches. The Bengals will play their starters for roughly a quarter while the Eagles are unlikely to use any key players. This is not Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones against backups. This is Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and the rest of Cincinnati’s first unit against backups.
That gives the Bengals a massive early edge. The market reflects that with Cincinnati -6.5 for the game, -4.5 to -6.5 for the first half, and -0.5 (-110) for the first quarter. The 1Q number is tempting since it is when the Bengals will have the biggest mismatch, but spots like this can be tricky. I cannot tell you how many times the offense is driving late in the first quarter, needing a score before time runs out, only to punch it in a couple of plays into the second quarter and miss cashing the 1Q bet.
Once Burrow and the starters are pulled, the edge swings back toward even. There is a real possibility the Bengals score on the opening drive and then rest their starters. A sneaky angle is to back the Eagles live if Cincinnati opens with a long touchdown drive. The market may overreact before the Bengals’ depth takes the field.
My main focus will be the second half. If the Eagles are getting +0.5 or better after halftime, I will be looking to take them. The second half should feature a more even matchup:
- Bengals: Mostly Desmond Ridder, with Jake Browning possibly starting the half and getting a series or two, and rookie Payton Thorne cleaning up late.
- Eagles: Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) and rookie Kyle McCord likely splitting reps.
DTR has been a preseason standout. Among 58 qualified QBs last preseason:
- PFF Grade: fifth
- QB Rating: 22nd
- Yards per Attempt: 15th
- Turnover-worthy play rate: tied for first
He put up similar numbers in 2023 and brings rushing upside. Kyle McCord is a 6th-round rookie but is more polished than Payton Thorne.
Ridder’s preseason track record is much weaker:
- PFF Grade: 48th
- QB Rating: 33rd
- Yards per Attempt: 22nd
- Turnover-worthy play rate: tied for first
If the line is right, there is value in the Eagles after halftime. The plan is to wait for +0.5 or better in the 2H and be ready to fire if the scenario plays out. I will post any in-game plays I make in the app.
Potential Play: Eagles 2H +0.5 or better (live betting angle)
Raiders vs Seahawks First Half Prop Bet
The nightcap will feature another case of two teams taking very different approaches. The Seahawks will rest their starters and key players, so we will not see Sam Darnold, Kenneth Walker, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, or their elite starting defense.
The Raiders have a brand new regime under head coach Pete Carroll, a new starting quarterback in Geno Smith, and several rookies expected to make an immediate impact. Ashton Jeanty, Jack Bech, and Dont’e Thornton should all be in action tonight and I am high on all three heading into 2025.
Geno Smith should start and may play the entire first quarter before giving way to Aidan O’Connell. O’Connell has been productive in each of his first two preseasons and will have enough depth around him to keep the offense moving when he enters. That combination gives the Raiders a big edge early as they face Drew Lock and the Seahawks backups. This is also a revenge game for both Carroll and Smith, which could add some extra motivation. I am locking in Raiders -4.5 (-108) for the first half.
The second half is when things should even out, and the Seahawks may even have a slight edge. Rookie Jalen Milroe is expected to play the entire second half. While he is still raw as a passer, his rushing ability is elite and can be a huge advantage against second- and third-string defenders. He will be able to extend drives with his legs if passing lanes are not there.
If O’Connell opens the second half, I might pivot to the over for the 2H. If I expect Cam Miller to play most of the 2H instead, I would lean toward taking the Seahawks +0.5 after halftime. Miller can run as well, but Milroe’s athleticism is on a different level and has been proven against SEC defenses.
Play: Raiders -4.5 1H -108 (DK)
