If you're like me, you spent the months leading up to the 2025 NFL preseason just waiting for football to bet on. We won our Hall of Fame Game bet on the Chargers, and now my focus turns to the actual preseason.
There's a perception that betting on the preseason is for the real degenerates of the betting world, but there are definitely ways to be profitable. Below, I'll dive into three keys I think are important to winning your preseason bets. For a full conversation I had with Chris Raybon on the topic, check out the YouTube video below.
Let's get into how to bet on the NFL preseason.
Pay Attention to NFL News
I’ve found over the years that if you keep up on the news and approach betting on these games in a practical way, you can be very profitable.
The key, though, is to keep up with who’s going to be playing. This isn’t something that you can just randomly bet on. I’ve taken betting on the preseason much more seriously over the past four years with double-digit bets every year, and I’m 61-35 (64%) on sides and totals. That doesn’t include how well I’ve done in daily fantasy markets like PrizePicks and Underdog.
College football knowledge does help for a lot of these players. Having even a little familiarity with guys means you’ll know what to expect a bit more. With that, obscure and specific knowledge about players further down the depth chart will also come in handy. I’m talking about fullbacks or fourth-string receivers, not even the backups.
Keeping up to date with depth charts and who’s going to play is key.
Find Trustworthy Betting Trends
You also tend to see a lot more betting trends in preseason, specifically ones that hit at higher rates than usual. Betting markets don’t tend to catch onto these since betting on preseason football isn’t as popular, so sportsbooks tend to take more time to adjust.
This is hugely different since during the regular season, popular trends get spotted quickly and books adjust accordingly. Also, news breaks and line movement happens a bit more suddenly in the preseason.
The 2025 Hall of Fame Game is an example. We found out that Kyle Allen was going to start for the Lions instead of Hendon Hooker the afternoon of the game. Sportsbooks don’t have much to go off before this game, so that news will have an impact and move markets somehow.
Know Who's Under Center
Quarterback play is obviously important in any NFL game, and the preseason is no different.
For the preseason, I create quarterback charts for every game that give me an idea of which quarterbacks will be playing at every point of the game. To go along with that, I have ranked every quarterback on an NFL roster right now. With that, I can find edges throughout the game for either team based on who will be in under center.
While guys like Mac Jones or Zach Wilson have shown they are not regular-season starting quarterbacks, they’re pretty good in the preseason against backups or third-string-level defensive players.
At the end of the day, it comes down to which unit of a team’s offense the quarterback is playing with and against.
The style of quarterback is also helpful to know. A scrambling quarterback tends to help a lot in the preseason because offensive-line play has deteriorated across the NFL over the last five or 10 years. If a team cannot protect its quarterback, chances are it’s not going to call a lot of deep shots or take many chances.
