We're back with NFL PrizePicks and Underdog plays for the first full preseason slate of the 2025 season.
I have picks on both sites for Thursday night's three games. I went 3-1 for the Hall of Fame Game, and I was 2-0 on my bets, which will come later.
Let's get into the Thursday night preseason slate.
Colts vs Ravens
Anthony Richardson
Less Than 19.5 Rushing Yards (7)
It’s a critical year for Anthony Richardson as the Colts need to evaluate whether he’s their guy long-term. With Daniel Jones behind him as a fallback plan, they’ll likely want to see Richardson improve in the weakest part of his game: as a passer.
Richardson should play about 1 1/2 quarters tonight. Last preseason, he dropped back 22 times but ran just twice for four yards with zero designed runs. I’m expecting a similar approach here — limited designed rushing, fewer scrambles and an emphasis on staying in the pocket. The Colts already know what he brings as a runner, so they don’t need him taking unnecessary hits in August.
Richardson can obviously break one and clear this number on a couple of scrambles but given the expected usage and game plan, this number is just a bit too high. I have him closer to 15.5 yards, with more paths to this hitting than not.
DJ Giddens
More Than 23.5 Rushing Yards (8)
The Colts backfield is thin tonight. Salvon Ahmed is out. Jonathan Taylor might not suit up and will likely only play a few snaps if he does.
That sets up a likely three-man rotation in the battle for the backup RB gig between Tyler Goodson, Khalil Herbert and DJ Giddens (Ulysses Bentley is more of a camp body who should see a ton of Week 3 run).
Goodson and Herbert are vets with plenty of tape. Giddens, on the other hand, is a fifth-round rookie who the Colts will want to evaluate more closely. He’s a physical early-down runner at 6-feet, 215 pounds with 4.43 speed. He isn’t much of a pass catcher, but he’s explosive and can break a big run at any time.
This market is all about expected role and reps. Giddens is the best bet to lead the team in both categories tonight. I’m projecting him closer to 29.5 yards.
Tyler Loop
Less Than 1.5 PATs Made (9)
Not expecting much firepower from the Ravens offense tonight with Cooper Rush and Devin Leary under center. Baltimore's implied team total is just 15, which makes it unlikely that it scores two or more touchdowns.
Even if the Ravens find the end zone two or more times, there’s no guarantee they attempt the extra point after each one or that Loop converts them. There are a couple outs here that make this appealing.
This number has been on and off the board throughout the early afternoon, but I'd play it if it's available to you. I’m projecting about a 60% chance he finishes under 1.5.
Bengals vs Eagles
Jake Browning
More Than 81.5 Passing Yards (9)
I’m expecting Joe Burrow and the Bengals starters to play around one quarter. If they score early, though, they could get pulled even sooner.
Either way, Jake Browning should get about two quarters before Desmond Ridder takes over for mop-up duty. There’s a chance Payton Thorne gets some run in the fourth quarter, which could tighten the rotation a bit, but I think that would come at Ridder’s expense and not Browning’s.
Browning also has a shot to run the 2-minute offense before halftime, which is a sneaky way for him to rack up some extra yards. He should have a decent group of second-unit weapons like Jermaine Burton and Tanner Hudson to throw to.
I’m projecting him closer to 95.5 and love his upside in this spot.
Chase Brown
Less Than 7.5 Receiving Yards (7)
Like I mentioned, I’m expecting the starters to get around a quarter of work, but they could get pulled earlier. That would include Chase Brown, who should see a handful of carries and maybe one reception. Even if he hauls in a pass, his median would still land closer to six yards.
Brown has only averaged 0.62 yards per route run in the preseason, which would rank 19th out of 24 RBs on today’s slate. Samaje Perine could also mix in on passing downs, which adds more volatility.
This one could be over early if BRown catches a pass and gets loose, but my math says this is going to be close and we're getting a little sneaky value on our side. Plus, this has zero correlation with the Browning prop (which is nice) because I’m assuming Browning will enter the game once Brown exits.
Jake Elliott
Less Than 1.5 PATs Made (8)
This is an identical situation as the Loop play for the Ravens game I mentioned above. Same as Loop, it also has been appearing and reappearing throughout the day.
Ainias Smith
Less Than 21.5 Receiving Yards (9)
Ainias Smith saw a ton of run last preseason, leading the Eagles with 73 routes run. That made sense at the time since he was a rookie. But even with 11 targets, he only managed 43 yards, mainly due to his extremely low average depth of target (4.0 yards) while operating out of the slot.
Smith averaged just 0.59 yards per route run, which would rank 40th out of the 44 WRs on today’s slate when looking at preseason data over the last three years.
The Eagles WR room is more crowded this time around, so I doubt Smith gets as much playing time. Also, to clear this number, he'd have to be way more efficient than he’s shown.
I'm projecting this closer to 15.5 yards.
Raiders vs Seahawks
Daniel Carlson
More Than 1.5 PATs Made (8)
I’m high on the Raiders QB rotation and offense tonight, so I'm showing value on this.
I have Daniel Carlson clearing this around 60% of the time.
George Holani
More Than 23.5 Rushing Yards (8)
George Holani should see quite a bit of run tonight with a fairly thin RB room for the Seahawks, and his 3.7 yards after contact per run last preseason ranked 16th out of 120 qualified backs.
I'm projecting this closer to 28.5.
