NFL Betting Tip: Find Value With Teams off Blowout Losses
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyler Murray
- NFL teams that lost their previous game by 20 or more points have gone 429-365-18 (54.0%) ATS since 2003.
- Using Bet Labs, we detail the optimal strategy for wagering on teams following blowout losses.
Did you know NFL teams that lost their previous game by 20 or more points have gone 429-365-18 (54.0%) against the spread (ATS) in their next game since 2003?
The larger the margin of defeat the better these teams have performed for gamblers:
Why are teams undervalued after ugly losses?
Bettors tend to remember blowouts. As a result, teams that exceed expectations by winning and covering easily are likely to be overvalued by gamblers, while those that get blown out will be undervalued.
Oddsmakers know that casual bettors will overreact to recent results and shade the lines in anticipation of public perception.
Odds as of Thursday at 10 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
History shows us that teams are undervalued after a big loss. Of course, it is important to consider who the team lost to. Getting blown out by the Patriots is better than losing by three scores to the Dolphins.
Any team can get rolled by Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, but an ugly loss to one of the league’s worst teams is a bad omen for gamblers.
So when is the best time to back teams off blowout losses?
Most bettors view all blowouts the same, but there is added value targeting teams that lost to a quality opponent. We define a quality opponent as a team that has won two out of every three games this season — that would be the equivalent of a 10-win team over a full season.
Since 2003, teams coming off a loss of 20 or more points against a quality opponent have gone 178-137-7 (56.5%) ATS. If the loss occurs in Week 8 or later in the season, when the opponent’s win percentage is more indicative of its underlying talent, the ATS win rate improves:
Gamblers following this strategy have won more than 60% of their bets since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,709 following this system per Bet Labs.
In Week 8, the Cardinals were rolled, 31-9, in New Orleans. Arizona wasn’t the only team to get blown out as the 49ers routed the Panthers, 51-13.
The outcomes were disappointing for Arizona and Carolina, though the losses did occur to opponents that are a combined 14-1.
Casual bettors may be hesitant to back the Cardinals and Panthers after getting burned in Week 8, but history suggests these are two solid buy-low candidates.
Week 9 System Matches
- Cardinals +10 vs. 49ers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Panthers -3.5 vs. Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS)