The Green Bay Packers (1-0) host the Washington Commanders (1-0) in NFL Week 2 for Thursday Night Football on September 11. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The game will be streamed on Amazon Prime.
The Packers are 3.5-point favorites on the spread against the Commanders (Packers -3.5) with the over/under set at 48. The Packers are -190 moneyline favorites; the Commanders are +155 underdogs.
Below, you can find my Thursday Night Football preview and Commanders vs Packers prediction.
Commanders vs Packers Prediction
- Commanders vs Packers pick: Commanders +3.5
My Commanders vs Packers best bet is on the Commanders to cover the spread at +3.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Commanders vs Packers Odds
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 48 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 48 -110o / -110u | -190 |
Commanders vs Packers Thursday Night Football Preview
When the Commanders Have the Ball
Jayden Daniels picked up where he left off from his excellent rookie season, leading Washington to an easy 21–6 win over the Giants in Week 1.
Three new pieces to the offense could make Washington's unit even better in 2025. LT Laremy Tunsil had a solid debut against what should be a strong Giants pass rush. His only blemish came on one rep where rookie Abdul Carter beat him for a sack and also drew a holding call. Outside of that, Tunsil was clean. That is a massive upgrade considering 25% of Daniels’ pressures last year came from his LT (14th highest per PFF). In Week 1, that figure dropped to the ninth lowest.
We also saw seventh-round rookie Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt operate as the lead back. His rise from a late-round pick to starting RB in Week 1 is one of the best stories in football right now, and he backed it up with production.
Bill finished with +3.9 rushing yards over expected per attempt, the third-highest mark among RBs in Week 1. Pair that with new addition Deebo Samuel, who went 7/77 receiving and added a 19-yard run, and Bill could take this offense to another gear this year.
Terry McLaurin was quiet after holding out most of camp, which was expected, but he should find his form soon.
Green Bay’s defense made headlines with the blockbuster trade for Micah Parsons, but he is still dealing with a back issue and only played 45% of snaps in Week 1. On a short week, it is hard to imagine him taking on a full workload.
The Packers’ defense will look scarier later in the season when Parsons is fully unleashed, but for now, Washington’s offense may catch them before they are at full strength.
When the Packers Have the Ball
Jordan Love led Green Bay to a 27–13 win over the Lions, completing 16-of-22 passes for 188 yards and 2 TDs. He wasn’t asked to do much in the second half as the Packers went run heavy to protect the big lead.
The bigger concern here is health.
Christian Watson is already on IR, Jayden Reed is gutting it out with a fractured foot and first-round draft pick Matthew Golden is battling an ankle injury. All are expected to play on Thursday night, but they are clearly not at 100%.
Up front, LG Aaron Banks (ankle) and RT Zach Tom (oblique) are shaping up to be game-time decisions. If either is out, that could cause problems against a Washington defense that was already stout in Week 1.
Washington’s run defense did look improved against the Giants, allowing the second-lowest rushing yards over expected per attempt. That was still Russell Wilson and the Giants, so the real test comes now.
It is hard to imagine a unit led by future Hall of Famer Bobby Wagner in the middle not turning into at least an above average group against the run. The secondary also got a boost from Marshon Lattimore, who the Commanders traded for in-season last year; he looked like himself again after battling injuries last year. If he stays healthy, Washington's defense has the potential to be much stronger than what we saw in 2024.
Commanders vs Packers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The total of 48.5 feels a touch high, but with both offenses looking closer to midseason form than Week 1 rust, it’s not crazy.
The value here is taking Washington +3.5, but only if the number sticks.
Daniels will regress from some of last year’s unsustainable stats, but his rushing upside and decision-making paired with new additions like Tunsil, Deebo and Bill Croskey-Merritt keep this offense dangerous.
Meanwhile, Green Bay is banged up on offense and Parsons isn’t at full strength yet. The market is probably too high on the Packers right now, as they will likely be closer to their true peak once their WRs and Parsons are closer to full health.
The Commanders are catching them at a time.
Pick: Commanders +3.5
Moneyline
I have no pick for either side of the moneyline.
Spread
My bet for Thursday Night Football is the Commanders +3.5
Over/Under
The game total at 48.5 is a bit high for me — that being said, both offenses looked good in Week 1. Still, I have no play for the over/under.
