The Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers play the first game of NFL Week 2 on Thursday Night Football. Commanders vs Packers will kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field; the game will be streamed on Prime Video.
The Packers are 3-point favorites on the spread over the Commanders with (Packers -3) the game total set at 49. The Packers are -175 moneyline favorites and the Commanders are +145 underdogs.
Let’s get into our Commanders vs Packers predictions for Thursday Night Football, which include picks for the spread, over/under and player props.
Commanders vs Packers Predictions
- Commanders vs Packers Against the Spread: Packers -3 (-110)
- Commanders vs Packers Over/Under: Over 48 (-110)
- Commanders vs Packers Player Props: Jordan Love Over 19.5 Completions (+125)
Commanders vs Packers Odds
- Spread: Commanders +3 (+100), Packers -3 (-110)
- Over/Under: 49 (-110o / -110u)
- Moneyline: Commanders +145, Packers -175
Odds via BetMGM
Commanders vs Packers Spread Prediction
The Packers have had the youngest team in the NFL for multiple seasons now, and they have built a roster that may just now be peaking entering 2025.
Green Bay's defensive front in Week 1 from start to finish against the Lions. The Packers allowed 2.3 adjusted line yards per rush to a Lions offensive line that is considered one of the best in football. Detroit, the highest scoring team in the NFL in 2024, averaged just 3.8 yards per play.
The Packers defense ranked fourth in DVOA in Week 1, but a majority of the yardage gained by the Lions occurred after the game was well in hand. The Packers blitzed at the lowest rate in Week 1, yet generated immense pressure on Jared Goff.
Matt LaFleur picked up where he left off in the 2023 season, which may have been the last time Jordan Love was fully healthy outside of one game in 2024.
A healthy Love is once again being handed the keys to the offense and it’s clear the goal is to make this offense more dangerous by unleashing the passing attack. Ignore the total attempts for the game's entirety as Green Bay took its foot off of the gas last week in the second half.
This will lead to the Packers winning with margin more often and this is a good spot to impress against a vulnerable Commanders pass defense.
Washington finished last season 20th in pass defense DVOA. I expect a complete performance from Green Bay that leads to a 7-10 point victory.
Pick: Packers -3 (-110); bet to -3.5
Commanders vs Packers Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
The Packers and Commanders combined for 48 offensive points in Week 1. Oddsmakers have set the total for their Week 2 TNF game right at that number.
What’s notable about both team’s offensive outputs from last week is that neither game was particularly close. Green Bay led the Lions pretty much from the opening whistle, while Washington was never threatened by the Giants.
The Packers and Commanders probably left potential points on the board as they had no motivation to attack as the game went on. On the flip side, that also means both defenses played well, which could limit scoring in Week 2.
With that said, I don’t want to overreact to a one-game sample from either defense. Washington played the perennially-hapless Giants offense, while Green Bay hosted a Lions unit that looked lost in the post-Ben Johnson era.
Brandon Anderson’s team defense rankings have the Commanders defense as a big step down from the Lions', meaning Green Bay should have no problem putting up points. While the Packers rank inside his top 10, much of that is due to the acquisition of Micah Parsons, who played a limited snap count in Week 1 and is now operating on a short week.
Plus, Jayden Daniels’ speed makes him somewhat less sensitive to the pass rush than Jared Goff, so Washington should be able to move the ball as well.
I expect the rare fun Thursday Night Football game this week.
Pick: Over 48 (-110)
Commanders vs Packers Player Prop
By Derek Carty
THE BLITZ is forecasting 21.48 completions for Love on Thursday night against the Commanders.
The oddsmakers' implied projection is 19.14 completions, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 59% of the time, resulting in a 34% ROI with expected value of $33.56 (based on a $100 wager).
Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Jordan Love Over 19.5 Completions (+125)
