The NFL season rolls into Week 2 action, starting with the Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers set to square off in an excellent NFC showdown on Thursday Night Football. That's where I begin my NFL Week 2 predictions, followed by bets, leans and passes for the rest of the weekend slate all the way through the Monday Night Football doubleheader.
Every week, I break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. NFL lines move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season.
NFL Predictions, Week 2 Previews
| Table of Contents |
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| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 2 Picks |
| Sunday Night Football |
| Monday Night Football Doubleheader |
Thursday Night Football
Commanders vs. Packers
The Commanders played down to their competition in Week 1 when they let a flat Giants offense hang around, but in a larger sense, this game took the shape of a slow one with how well Washington was able to run the ball.
Washington’s line was already looking suspect entering the year, and while it did get solid push in the run game, it also allowed Jayden Daniels to be sacked three times for 21 yards.
Now, the Commanders will have to stop Micah Parsons and a revamped Packers pass rush – something it’s hard to see happening after the Giants’ play in the opener.
I think this game comes down to the run. While Washington did enter the year with questions on the edge, it did render the Giants ineffective on the ground.
We know that both sides love to run – and both teams stopped the run quite well last week – leading me to side with a low-scoring affair.
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Passes
Jared Goff didn’t do much to silence his many long-term critics on Sunday. Even if the narrative that he’s 0-19-1 without Ben Johnson or Sean McVay calling his plays was false, he’s still just 3-3-1 with Dan Campbell doing so.
It wasn’t like his line gave him much help, with Green Bay’s strong pass rush sacking Goff four times – but the veteran did at least manage to complete 31-of-39 passes for 225 yards with an interception.
It’s hard to tell whether Chicago’s secondary was truly this good, or if Minnesota’s offense is going through growing pains with JJ McCarthy, but the fact of the matter is that the Bears looked damn good on that side of the ball – something we expected from this team in 2025.
The ground game was equally as impressive considering Pro Football Focus had their backfield as the second-worst in football entering the year, but a lot of that had to do with Caleb Williams’ ability to run the ball.
Williams looked fantastic in a game in which the Bears simply failed to continue drives in enemy territory, and against another strong pass rush we should see the second-year signal-caller operating outside the pocket where he’s at his best.
I am not out on the Lions by any means, but I need to see more. The same goes for Chicago’s offense, which has a ton of potential but few concrete laurels to rest on.
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Yuck.
Can we forget both of these teams played last week? This lauded Dolphins defensive line sacked Daniel Jones just once in Week 1 while the secondary – widely seen as their biggest weakness – let the embattled veteran torch them for 272 yards and a touchdown through the air on 22-of-29 passing.
On offense, the ground game was effective but barely got going as they ran the ball just 12 times – and Tua Tagovailoa and company managed the second-worst EPA per dropback in Week 1 despite having a relatively full bill of health.
New England’s pass defense was one of the friendliest in Week 1, just like Miami’s, and while it got the ball moving through the air its line looked abysmal in front of Drake Maye.
I suspect the Dolphins continue to get pressure on the young quarterback, but I also think the Pats might have the better offense. This is a confusing one.
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The Cardinals’ rushing attack had a field day against a bad Saints defense last week, running a hefty 27 times for 5.4 yards on average. But while Kyler Murray was efficient and threw for two scores, he was sacked five times.
That’s uh, that’s not good.
The Saints’ offensive line graded out as the worst in football coming into the year, according to PFF, and while that held firm, inside Arizona had some lapses in pass protection even though it didn’t affect things all that much.
The Panthers had a rough first game with just some modest success through the air to hang their hat on, but while the Cardinals come in off a brilliant performance in the secondary, they faced Spencer Rattler, and also got burned on the ground.
I need to see more.
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Leans
49ers vs. Saints
The 49ers had the seventh-best Week 1 through the air with 0.35 expected points added per dropback, and while their newly-fortified backfield with Brian Robinson Jr. failed to make a mark, they’ll draw one of the least-talented rush defenses in the league as the Saints allowed Arizona to average 5.4 yards on 27 carries.
The Cardinals totally took the game out of the Saints’ hands with an early barrage on the ground, and while the passing game ultimately held them back, we are looking at a sturdy two-pronged attack on the Niners’ side.
I’m still not entirely sure what we get out of this defense, which lost Nick Bosa among others in the offseason, but at least in this game – against Spencer Rattler – it shouldn’t matter.
This line has swung a bit with George Kittle heading to injured reserve, but Brock Purdy just cooked without two of his best pass-catchers in Brandon Aiyuk and Demarcus Robinson – and with nothing out of his run game. Purdy himself has popped up on the injury report with some minor knocks, but I’m not worried about any of this.
Purdy should play, he should continue moving the ball regardless of the personnel, and I’ll happily take the discount.
Verdict: Lean 49ers -4.5
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The Steelers’ famed defensive line didn’t look so good against the Jets in Week 1, but many may be overlooking the excellent work New York has done in rebuilding its line – and its exceptional talent in the backfield.
It’s only natural to overreact, especially considering the Jets’ record over the last two years, but I’m not too worried for Pittsburgh in this spot.
The Seahawks’ line ranked eighth in pass protection last week, but it comes into the season on the back of a terrible 2024 and hasn’t done much to help matters. On top of that, the Niners’ pass rush isn’t what it used to be considering all the losses up front, so there’s a good chance we see Pittsburgh bounce back and get to Sam Darnold plenty.
The Steelers offense is still a mystery for me, considering Aaron Rodgers is 41, already on the injury report, and working with a new group of skill-position players that features few incumbents in the starting lineup.
The matchup is great against Seattle, however, considering this team is going to struggle if it can’t protect Darnold and open up the explosive passing plays he was known for last week.
Verdict: Lean Steelers -2.5
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Boy, what happened to this Chiefs defense?
I know, one week, yada yada, but Justin Herbert had never achieved this level of success against Kansas City in his career.
When it was all said and done, K.C. surrendered big chunk after big chunk to push Herbert over 300 yards with three touchdowns, and with things looking murky for the offense, there’s some real concern here entering Week 2.
Philly’s defense stalled out against Dallas, but it’s hard to blame it much against a vintage version of Dak Prescott and an offensive line that silenced the critics with some great push up front to help establish the run.
It’s far from time to ring the alarm for either team, but Philly didn’t look its best on offense while succumbing inside to this Dallas line.
The Chiefs managed to grade out in the top 10 both in pass protection and run blocking last week despite an otherwise flat outing, so coming off Week 1 I think we’ll see this offense kick back into gear – even if Xavier Worthy is out.
I don’t know if we can expect the same out of the defense against a top offense; considering the history with the Chargers, I actually do want to overreact to one week. The total is the only place I’d go.
Verdict: Lean Over 46.5
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NFL Week 2 Picks
It’s hard to get a read on either team right now; both ranked in the top 10 in EPA allowed per dropback last week, but these teams played the Browns and Panthers, respectively.Jacksonville’s task theoretically gets a lot tougher with Joe Burrow next on the schedule, but he went just 14-of-23 for 113 yards against Cleveland. He was outplayed by Joe Flacco, who had 290 yards passing but turned the ball over twice.
I want to believe in the Bengals after a season in which they moved the ball well, but fell short on several occasions and were overcome by some bad luck.
I also don’t think the Jaguars offense is ready to compete, getting a needed boost from Travis Etienne last week with Trevor Lawrence once again looking lost in the pocket.
Jacksonville’s secondary came into the year on shaky ground, and things should regress to the mean against a Bengals team which has traditionally favored the pass and got nothing done on the ground in their first game without Joe Mixon.
This should be a big statement win – but I also said that last week about Cincy.
Verdict: Bet Bengals -3.5
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Giants vs. Cowboys
I was already in love with the Cowboys coming into the year, and after their heartbreaking defeat on primetime last week against arguably the best team in football, I love them even more.
This offense had a throwback performance, getting an efficient night out of Dak Prescott and racking up 5.4 yards per carry on an elite Eagles front seven.
Things should only improve against the Giants’ weak secondary. While the G-Men possess a talented pass rush, the Cowboys’ line looked unbothered by the preseason criticism last week and didn’t allow a single sack.
Prescott just passed his biggest test of his season in Week 1, and he would have looked even better if CeeDee Lamb hadn’t dropped a few huge passes.
This is also a Cowboys defense I still believe in above all else, coming into the season with the same talent after a year in which they essentially stopped playing halfway through with things taking a turn for the worst offensively.
Dallas should be a bigger favorite.
I didn’t think we’d see much on offense from the Rams in Week 1; I was more or less impressed by Sean McVay’s group.
They only turned the ball over once, on a fumble, and Matthew Stafford posted a 109.1 passer rating after sitting out all of camp and the preseason with an injury. With that said, L.A. averaged just 2.9 yards per carry and failed to come up with explosive plays through the air.
You have to give them credit for throwing on one of the best secondaries in football, and similarly this Rams defense – which came into the season with many questions – excelled while the front seven looked a bit weak against the run.
The good news is that the Titans are unlikely to score much, and while the Broncos struggled to pull away in Week 1, they still have a somewhat one-dimensional offense with Bo Nix still growing under center.
The Rams are easy to love.
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Bills vs. Jets
The Jets were one of the best stories to come out of Week 1, and while their line lost Alijah Vera-Tucker just before the season, it didn’t seem to make a difference against the best defensive line in football.
New York graded out as the sixth-best pass-blocking unit, according to Pro Football Focus, which in turn led it to the second-best passing grade just after the Cowboys. That should give you all the confidence you need that Justin Fields should have the opportunity to get it done against another team with a strong pass rush – and it’s not like the Bills looked great defensively against the Ravens, either.
While this shaky Bills secondary wasn’t targeted much by Lamar Jackson, he wasn’t made to throw all that much considering he averaged 11 yards per attempt and the team as a whole ran all over this front seven for 8.2 yards per carry.
I’m very sour on the Bills defense – which has been bad for the better part of four years – but while it’s easy to love the Jets offense after their Week 1 showing, the defense looked discombobulated against an offense which has turned over a ton of key spots.
Both teams should keep on moving down the field.
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Browns vs. Ravens
The Ravens’ defense was arguably the most-criticized unit last week, but that’s what comes along with blowing a two-score lead in the fourth quarter. Their secondary – which projected to be one of the best in football this season – allowed the second-most EPA per dropback, but the front seven prevented Buffalo from running the ball and a few missed tackles led to big plays.
I’m going to preach patience here; it’s very early in the year and Buffalo may very well finish the season as the best offense in football. What we should be focusing on is Baltimore punishing a solid Bills defensive line on the ground and torching a shaky secondary for 11 yards on average.
The Browns did great work offensively against the Bengals last week, but it helps when you can get constant push against a generous line. That won’t happen here, and what will happen is the Ravens will take out some anger on their poor division rivals.
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Broncos vs. Colts
This is the easiest pass of the week, because neither team played like we expected in Week 1.
The Titans managed to bring the Broncos offense down to a painfully slow pace, and Indianapolis shut down a Dolphins offense that holds more weight by name value than anything.
The Colts have a great defense, but it’s the offense that everyone’s worried about. They didn’t have a quarterback coming into the year, I know, but who cares?
What more proof do you need that the position has become overvalued? This line is full of talent and just prevented a solid pass rush from getting to Daniel Jones, and he returned the favor by hitting his talented, and cohesive, group of pass-catchers.
Denver’s line looked solid in Week 1, but surely you’re going to expect that against Tennessee. It’s unlikely to have the same level of success here, and if that happens I’m not sure they can even win this game.
The secondary is amazing, don’t get me wrong, but there’s a lot of talent in Indy around Jones – and that goes for his defense as well.
Bo Nix looked pedestrian last week; the Colts are at home where they went 5-3 ATS last year and running hot. I’m going home ‘dogs.
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Sunday Night Football
While it took JJ McCarthy one half to settle into life as an NFL quarterback, the work his offensive line did up front helped expedite the process.
Minnesota graded out as the second-best team in pass protection last week, according to PFF, and it came against an ever-improving Bears defensive front.
Even though McCarthy didn’t throw much – which will likely continue at least until the Vikings return Jordan Addison from his suspension – he made throws when he needed to, and his line got excellent push in the run game.
Aaron Jones took a back seat to Jordan Mason, who looked amazing, but the former contributed on short-yardage passes. That should continue to be there for McCarthy, who can also lean on Justin Jefferson – who excelled in short yardage last year along with Jalen Nailor – a bit more if he’d like.
I’m starting to believe in the Vikings offense, and I already believed in this Falcons offense – which torched Tampa Bay through the air last week even if it couldn’t establish the run.
Minnesota rendered D’Andre Swift ineffective in Week 1, but that’s not enough for me to trust in one of the defenses to keep this from a shootout.
Verdict: Bet Over 44.5
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Monday Night Football
Buccaneers vs. Texans
The Buccaneers’ high-octane offense never got it going in Week 1 with Baker Mayfield going just 17-for-32 through the air against a Falcons defense that was abysmal last year.
The pass protection was good, but not nearly good enough against a team that lacks talent off the edge – and now the team that rushed the passer best last week is on the menu.
The Texans’ secondary is excellent and it kept them in the game against a strong Rams offense, but it was up front where they really made an impact in limiting Kyren Williams to just 3.7 yards per carry.
Perhaps it was rust, but I did not like what I saw out of the Bucs offense last week – and it was already in a tough spot against this defense. Houston ran the ball exceptionally well last week until the Rams pulled in front, and it should keep doing that with plenty of questions remaining up front for Tampa even after slowing the Falcons on the ground.
Verdict: Bet Texans -2.5
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Chargers vs. Raiders
I can’t tell if Justin Herbert is about to take over the league, or if the Chiefs’ secondary was simply bad. Perhaps it was a combination of the two, but we do know Herbert was a top-five passer last season while the Raiders had one of the worst defenses in the league against the pass.
It’s hard for me to completely write off this Raiders team, however, and even with a terrible showing by the secondary, the offense exploded for 362 yards through the air against hte Patriots in Geno Smith’s debut.
We were heaping praise on this Chargers defense last year until the second half of the season, and now we’re meant to respect them after a largely average showing against Kansas City? I just don’t know about that – and I think the Raiders have some juice on offense with an improved line, a new quarterback and rookie Ahston Jeanty in the backfield.
It might take this team some time to realize the potential I see in them, but it also might not.
Verdict: Lean Raiders +3
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