NFL Week 2 begins with Thursday Night Football, which features the Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers.
The Packers kicked off the 2025 NFL season with a bang, emphatically beating down the rival Detroit Lions in Week 1. The Commanders, meanwhile, made easy work of the rival New York Giants, setting up this early season NFC clash between undefeated teams on TNF.
For more Thursday Night Football picks, check out our staff's Commanders vs Packers predictions and best bets.
For Thursday Night Football, I'm targeting a Jordan Love player prop as I expect the Packers quarterback to air it out a bit more in what should be a competitive game — find my NFL prop bet for him below.
NFL Prop Bets: Jordan Love Over/Under
Packers quarterback Jordan Love looked sharp in Week 1, going 16-for-22 for 188 yards and 2 TDs in a 27-13 win over the Lions.
A lot of people are betting his under for Thursday Night Football at 30.5 attempts, which makes sense if you’re just box score watching or leaning too hard on last year’s splits.
The Packers were extremely run heavy in 2024, but context matters: they played with the lead 56% of the time (third highest), Love played through a knee issue, and there was even a two-game stretch with Malik Willis where Green Bay's run rate went nuclear.
Add in a Round 1 WR in Matthew Golden, and it was pretty clear the Packers weren’t going to be as run-heavy this year.
Sure enough, the Packers opened Week 1 with a 70% dropback rate in the first half. Then the game script flipped: they went up 17-3 at halftime, the Lions kept pounding David Montgomery for 2-yard runs and dumping off to Jahmyr Gibbs, and the Packers ended up running just 47 plays with only 24.5 minutes of possession.
Love ultimately had just 22 attempts, but it was basically the perfect storm for that under to cash. Even when they got the ball with under a minute before halftime (the last pass-heavy sequences left for the Packers in that game) they went three-and-out. Then in the 4th quarter, after opening with a pass, they rattled off 13 straight runs to end the game.
Thursday Night Football's environment should be much friendlier. Washington should at least keep things competitive, forcing Love to throw deeper into the fourth quarter.
Love's never going to be mistaken for Joe Burrow in this market (you’re not going to see books floating 36+ attempt props, ever, for him for a reason), but 29.5 is just a shade too low. I’m projecting Love closer to 31.2.
One other edge here: Love’s pressure-to-sack rate was third lowest last season, and he scrambled at the 11th-lowest rate. That combo means a higher percentage of his dropbacks actually turn into attempts, which is a sneaky floor booster in this market.
Week 1 is always chaos. Week 2 at least gives us some real usage to lean on, and this looks like the type of overreaction spot I want to buy into.
Pick: Jordan Love Over 29.5 Pass Attempts (-124; DraftKings)
Editor's Note: Koerner made this bet at over 29.5 (-124) on DraftKings; the line has since moved to 30.5. You can still grab 29.5 at -135 on Fanatics.
