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Betting Market Percentages Point to Sharp Play on Ravens-Chargers Spread

Dec 22, 2018 3:13 PM EST
Credit:

Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lamar Jackson

  • After opening as a 4.5-point favorite, the Chargers are down to -3.5 in tonight's matchup against the Ravens (8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network).
  • Betting market percentages help explain the line movement, and indicate a potential sharp play on the game.

When Week 16 lines were released on Sunday, most books listed the Chargers as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Ravens. Hours before kickoff, however, the Bolts are between -4 and -3.5 at most major sportsbooks.

That line fall has come despite 63% of bettors laying the points with the Chargers.

The Rams are 11-3 on the season and the Ravens are 8-6, so it shouldn’t come as any surprise to see the Chargers drawing a majority of bets given the relatively short line at home.

What’s more eye-catching is the direction of the line movement, but a look at distribution of money provides some clarity.

The 37% of bettors backing Baltimore have accounted for half the money being wagered on the game.

While that doesn’t put any liability on Ravens, it does mean that bigger bets are landing on them. And who tends to make the bigger bets?

Wiseguys.

We’re still waiting on a potential Sports Insights’ Bet Signal to confirm that sharps are at work, but given that fact that there’s no liability on either side, it’s highly unlikely for the line movement against the public to be a result of anything other than sharp action.

Stay tuned as we’ll be monitoring every line move up until game time to see if this downward movement continues into the key number of -3.

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