Welcome to Week 2 of the NFL season and your survivor pool. Of course nothing of note happened in Week 1, so we’ll just move right along to this week’s analysis.
As much as I wish I could, I do have to bring up the elephant in the room. Last week, I picked the Lions and they lost. They lost by 31 points. They lost by 31 points to a rookie quarterback in his first start. They lost by 31 points to the freaking Jets.
Naturally, Twitter came out in full force saying how dumb of a pick it was, which was not surprising in the least. The problem is I never heard how dumb of a pick it was at any time before the game started.
Too many people complain about the result but not about the process. Not one person complained about the analysis last week that led to the pick. If we went back in time and I was given the same data, I would make the same pick again.
This doesn’t just apply to survivor pools, but also to sports betting and daily fantasy sports in general. While we get to see the outcome of only one game, in theory there is a spectrum of results that can happen.
The Lions losing by 31 points was on the very worst part of the spectrum, but that doesn’t mean the process was wrong. Concentrate on the process of your decisions, and your results will speak for themselves in the long run.
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The Lions weren’t the only team that went down in the first week of the season. The Saints were the most popular pick and fell to the Bucs, meaning more than half of the entries are already knocked out.
For those of you still alive, here are the win percentages remaining for all 32 teams.
Five teams have a 70% or better chance to win this week, and here is the relevant data for each.
The Rams, the largest favorites in Week 2, are currently favored by 13 points over the Cardinals. However, the Chargers are currently the most-picked team in survivor pools.
After Buffalo’s debacle against the Ravens, remaining players can’t seem to pick against the Bills fast enough. It’s important to remember that no NFL team is as good or as bad as it looked in the previous week.
The Saints get a chance to redeem themselves against the Browns at home as 8.5-point favorites. The Redskins and 49ers are both 6-point favorites and would be good contrarian picks in most weeks.
The Pick: Los Angeles Rams
It’s rare that the biggest favorite on the board is a value pick. I believe many are wanting to save the Rams because they are one of the best teams in the league, but this is projected to be their easiest game all season.
And if you don’t like the Rams this week, let me know before the game starts this time.