Welcome to year five of the 17-game schedule in the NFL! Three years ago, I did a study on double-digit win totals in the NFL. Now three years later, we have a larger sample size, but a lot of the same results.
Since 1990, there have been about 5.9 teams with double-digit win totals per season. In the first year of 17 games we saw eight double-digit win totals, then 12 in 2022, 7 in 2023 and 10 last year in 2024. As of now, we have eight in 2025.
This season, here are the eight teams listed with a double-digit win total:
- Philadelphia Eagles (11.5): Eagles will have a double-digit win total for the fourth straight year this season, but they haven't done that since 2002-05. Their win total of 11.5 is tied for their highest with 2005 and 2023 in the Wild Card era (since 1990) — they went under both of those seasons.
- Kansas City Chiefs (11.5): Chiefs have gone just 2-2 in terms of their win total in the last four years. They were over in eight straight prior to that stretch. Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs are 10-2 to their win total over and Reid overall is 19-6-1 to his win total over with the Chiefs and Eagles.
- Baltimore Ravens (11.5): This will be the 6th consecutive season with a double-digit win total for Baltimore. Between 1996 and 2019, they only had a double-digit win total five times. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 10-6-1 to their win total over.
- Buffalo Bills (11.5): Bills win total is set at 11.5. Buffalo has gone over their win total in three straight years and is 7-1 to their win total over in their last 8 years. The only year they went under was 2021, winning 11 games with an 11.5 win total.
- Detroit Lions (10.5): The Lions have gone over their win total in three straight seasons entering 2025, their longest over streak since 1993 to 1995.
- Cincinnati Bengals (10): Between 1990 and 2022, the Bengals never had a double-digit win total entering any season. With a win total of 10 in 2025, this will be their 3rd straight season with a win total of 10+ and they’ve gone under that win total in both seasons.
- San Francisco 49ers (10): The 49ers won six games last year and now have a win total of 10. In the last decade, San Francisco will be just the 4th team to jump 4+ wins to have a win total of 9 or more the following year ('24 LAC, '21 DEN, '21 SF).
- Los Angeles Rams (10): Rams are 6-2 to their win total over under Sean McVay, including going over the last two years. The Rams had gone under their win total in four straight years before McVay came aboard. Even with McVay’s success, in the Wild Card era (since 1990), the Rams have never gone over their preseason win total in three consecutive seasons.
But for any bettor considering taking the over on any of these eight win totals, there's a cautionary tale about the history of doing so.
Here's what my study of the 205 NFL teams to have a double-digit win total during the Wild-Card era (since 1990) revealed.
The History of Double-Digit NFL Win Totals
It's proven extremely difficult for a team to exceed expectations when its win total has been set so high.
Since 1990, only 85 of the 205 teams with double-digit win totals over the past 35 years have exceeded their number. The most alarming aspect of that 43.6% is the fact that those teams have gone under their win total by close to 0.6 wins per season.
Finding Value on Double-Digit NFL Win Totals
Oddsmakers know what they are doing. When setting win totals in the preseason, there is a difference between "expectations" and "great expectations."
There have been 65 teams with a win total of 11 or more since 1990, which averages out to about 1.9 teams per season. Those 65 teams are 31-31-3 to the over in that span. Drilling it down a bit further, between 1990-1999, overs were 12-8-1 in this spot and they are 19-23-2 to the over since 2000, including 4-8 to the over since the 17-game schedule was implemented in 2021.
The advantage comes with teams valued at the 10 and 10.5 mark. The 140 teams with such win totals are 79-54-7 (59.4%) to the under, going under the win total by a full three-quarters of a win (-0.75).
The 17-Game Schedule Impact
Speaking of the 2021 schedule change to 17 games. Let's do a small deep dive on the 3-year history.
To fully understand the impact of adding an extra game to the schedule and how that affects win totals, let's look at the results of the last few years for all 32 teams.
Total Market Wins
In 2021, if you added up every preseason win total, the total wins in the market equaled 277 wins — the sport itself had 272 regular season games.
Between 2018 and 2020, with a 16-game schedule, the average total wins in the preseason market was 260.8 (with it being its highest in 2020 at 262.5) — the sport itself had 256 regular season games.
For reference, since the 277 figure in 2021, we've seen 272.5 in 2022, 273 in 2023 and 2024, and 274 this season — which is much more in line with the total wins for the season.
How to Bet the Outliers
With the extra game on the schedule, one interesting trend since 2021 we will be tracking moving forward is how outlier win totals perform.
The Good Teams
Let's start with just the double-digit win totals. Since 2021, they are 18-19 to the over, with each team going under their win total by an average of 0.14 wins/team per season. If you compare that to recent history, one trend you'll find is the margins starting to tighten.
2021-24: 18-19 to the over (-0.14)
2017-20: 8-12-1 to the over (-0.76)
2013-16: 12-13 to the over (-0.82)
One thing to look at when dissecting these double-digit win totals is the consistency of expectations. Let's look at the Bills, 49ers, Ravens and Chiefs. For all four of those teams, this will be their fifth or more consecutive season they've had a double-digit win total.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Rams are starting a new streak this year and the Lions will have a double-digit win total for the second time in a row.
Here is some data on how teams have performed on their win total based on how many consecutive years they've had a win total of 10 or more:
The other angle worth looking for when it comes to the "good teams" and the top of the league is first-time teams with high win totals. In the 17-game era, we've only had three teams with a win total of 11 or more, coming off a season where they had a win total of less than 10: 2023 Bengals, 2021 Bills, 2021 Buccaneers.
The Bucs had a win total of 12 and won 13 games, while both the Bills and Bengals went under by two-plus games. Going a step further, in the 17-game era, we've only had four teams with a win total of 11 or more in their second consecutive year with a double-digit win total. Those four teams went 1-3 to the over, with two of those unders cashing by three whole games.
With a win total of 10.5 this season and last, the Lions fit the bill for that second note. Beware of teams with very high win totals who may not have already been in that spot recently.
The Lions won 15 games last year after entering the year with a win total of 10.5 — a +4.5 win increase on expectation. Detroit will be the 11th team in the last decade to have a double-digit win total the year after eclipsing their win total by 4+ wins. The previous ten teams went 8-2 to their win total under the following season.
The Bad Teams
Let's take a second now and look at some lower win totals for a second to try and get some comparison.
In recent history, betting the under on low win totals has shown a slight edge, even with what seems like an outlier year in 2022. Since 2021, win totals of under 9 were 29-35 to the over and going back to 2018, they are 56-65-4 to the over. Looking at win totals of under 8, they are 37-46-3 to the over since 2018 as well — all slight edges, but all pointing under.
2024
Under 9: 8-10 to the over
Under 8: 6-6 to the over
2023
Under 9: 7-11 to the over
Under 8: 5-8 to the over
2022
Under 9: 9-6 to the over
Under 8: 9-2 to the over
2021
Under 9: 5-8 to the over
Under 8: 3-7 to the over
Finally, it is worth looking at the worst of the worst. Since 1990, 27 teams have had a win total of under 5 and those teams are 14-11-2 to the over, going over their respective win totals by 0.74 wins per team. Since 2020 though, we've seen a bit of a reversal with win totals of under 5 sitting at 5-1-1 to the under.
At the moment, we don't have a team with a win total of under 5, with the New Orleans Saints being the closest at 5 even. Since 2017, this would be just the second year without a win total below 5 (2018). The interesting note about 2018? Double-digit win totals went 4-1-1 to the under that year with a more balanced league.
The Top of the Class
Since 1990, no team has had more double-digit win total seasons than the 49ers (20); the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots are right behind them with 17 each.
One category San Francisco still sits behind New England is double-digit win total overs. The Patriots lead the way with ten such seasons since 1990, while the 49ers are at nine, with only the Packers (7) having more than six.
The unique part of the Patriots win total history in the Wild Card era is the substantial difference between the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady years as opposed to the years the Patriots were without them.
Under Belichick, New England was 15-6-1 to the over on their win total, including 10-3-2 to the over when they had a double-digit win total in the Belichick era — going over their win total by more than a full win per year (+1.1). In the 18 total seasons with Brady as its starting QB, New England went 14-2-2 to its win total over.
In the Wild Card era without Tom Brady as their starter, the Patriots are 5-11-2 to their win total over.
If you are matching double-digit win totals with Conference Championship appearances to give a gauge of performance expectations, the worst teams when it comes to double-digit win total seasons per Conference Championship appearance are the Chargers (2 CC app, 7 DDWT), Cowboys (4, 11) and Rams (4, 9). The Chargers probably take the cake. Of the 14 teams with more than five seasons with a double-digit win total since 1990, Chargers' one Super Bowl appearance is the fewest and they join only the Bills of those 14 teams without a Super Bowl title to show for it during that span.
When looking at which of the 205 teams with a double-digit win total over the past three decades exceeded expectations the most, you have to point to the obvious: the 2007 Patriots. They went 16-0 that regular season to go over their win total by 4.5 games and now the Detroit Lions from 2024, going over their win total of 10.5 with 15 wins — the largest margins since 1990.
Only four teams have exceeded their win total by 4 wins or more: 2024 Lions, 2022 Eagles, 2009 Colts and 2007 Patriots.
The Bottom Of The Class
Entering the 2023 season, only two franchises had yet to enter a season with a double-digit win total in the Wild Card era: Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions.
In 2023, Cincinnati closed with a win total of 11, breaking that streak. It finished with nine wins after Joe Burrow only started ten games.
In 2024, Detroit closed with a win total of 10.5 and won 15 games.
With the Bengals and Lions tacking on big win totals, the Bears and Cardinals are now at the bottom of the totem pole with just one season with a win total of 10 or more since 1990.
When it comes to the worst single-season, there's really only one team that's earned the scarlet letter: the 2013 Houston Texans.
The Texans won 12 games in 2012 for the first time in franchise history, also making the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time — things were looking up in Houston.
Houston won its first two games in 2013 against the Chargers and Titans … then the wheels came off.
The Texans lost out, becoming the first team in NFL history to start 2-0 and lose 14 consecutive games within the same season. They finished eight games below their win total — the largest margin in the Wild-Card era.
Note: All win total data via Sports Odds History
