Week 16 NFL Survivor Pool Picks, Analysis: The Contrarian Option to Lock in Now

Week 16 NFL Survivor Pool Picks, Analysis: The Contrarian Option to Lock in Now article feature image

Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers

  • Our NFL simulations and survivor pool pick percentages are pointing to one team as the weekend's top option.
  • Travis Reed uses his model to determine the smartest picks to keep you alive through Week 16.

Another week in the NFL complete and another big upset rocked survivor pools. The San Francisco 49ers were big favorites at home coming off a huge win in New Orleans. They were consensus 10.5-point favorites, but couldn’t seal the deal against the Atlanta Falcons.

We are down to the final two weeks. Hopefully you still have some good options remaining. There are some surprising choices this week and we may get some teams resting in Week 17 to change things as well.

Here are the projected win percentages for the final two weeks of the season.

And here are the top seven options along with their pick percentages and projected win percentages next week.

Week 16 NFL Survivor Pool Picks, Analysis

If you have managed to hold on to Baltimore this entire season, I think you can deploy it now. The Ravens have a higher projection next week, but with a win they clinch the top seed in the AFC and could rest starters against the Steelers in Week 17.

The Chargers are the best play this week according to the simulations. Nobody is picking them, so they are also a solid contrarian play. Add in a trip to Arrowhead in Week 17 and it’s a team with zero future value. Lock in the Chargers if you have them as an option.

Everything I said about the Chargers is true about the Broncos with one exception: Denver also has a winnable game in Week 17 when it gets the Raiders at home.

The Colts are a good play according to the simulations, but are definitely risky as we have no previous example of how good or bad Will Grier is.

If you have New England as an option (um … how?), you might as well save the Pats for next week against the Dolphins rather than put them up against a good defense like Buffalo’s.

Atlanta is the most popular play this week which is mind-blowing when you think about where it was a few weeks ago. But wins against the 49ers and Saints ON THE ROAD have changed the public perception of a once hapless team.

I would try to avoid the Falcons since they are so popular, but understand your options may be limited at this point in the season.

Similar to last week, the simulations still don’t like the Seahawks, but they are big favorites against the Cardinals at home, making Seattle a better option now than next week against the 49ers.

Now I know when talking to some of you on Twitter (@BetLabsTravis) that your survivor pools carry on into the playoffs. Because of that I made the following chart with percentages to win the first two rounds of the playoffs.

Some of these percentages will clear up after next week because we’ll have an even better idea of which teams will be in line for byes and which will be playing during wild-card weekend.

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