There are two weeks to go in the regular season, and we still have four playoff spots up for grabs. With games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday again this week, we are full of action, bets, stats and more.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 17 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, December 23, at 2 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know
Fade The Need
How To Bet Week 17
Historically, it has been profitable to fade teams that “need” to win at the end of the regular season. Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 108-69-4 (61%) against the spread (ATS).
For Week 17 this season, the following eliminated teams fit this trend:
- Vikings vs. DET
- Browns vs. PIT
- Dolphins vs. TB
In addition, teams with a win percentage between 40-60% in Week 16 or later have gone just 27-72-4 (27%) ATS against opponents with an 8-25% worse winning percentage, failing to cover by 3.8 PPG dating back to 2007.
This week, that applies to just the Cowboys. One more for you, teams with a win pct of 60% or less in that Week 16 spot above are 38-85-4 ATS (31%), that includes the Cowboys, Saints, and Bengals this week, too.
Losing Their City
Chiefs Big Home Dog
Chiefs are 13.5-pt home underdogs vs. Broncos, their largest home underdog in franchise history. They were 13-pt home dogs back in 1977 against Ken Stabler and the Raiders. This would be Andy Reid's biggest home dog of his NFL coaching career, too.
Chiefs are on a 7-game ATS losing streak currently, tied with Bucs for longest ATS losing streak this season. The Chiefs also had a 7-game ATS losing streak last season, becoming the first team in the Super Bowl era to have 7+ game ATS losing streaks in back-to-back seasons.
Jaguar Love
Top of the Hill
Jaguars are 12-3 to their team total over this year, best mark in the NFL — including 7-0 on the road. Jaguars are always a thorn in the Colts side. Since 2015, Indy is 3-17-1 ATS vs. Jacksonville. In that span, none of the ten Colts QBs are above .500 ATS vs. the Jaguars and Philip Rivers himself is 0-2 ATS in that spot.
Coming off a game at Mile High Stadium is never an easy feat, which the Packers did last week against the Bears and blew a lead late. Last three seasons, teams coming off a road game in Denver are 6-18 ATS, including 0-7 ATS this season.
A Rodgers Low
History Is Here
The over/under for Steelers and Browns this week is down to 33.5. In Aaron Rodgers’ 276 career starts, this would be his lowest total in any game. Rodgers has won all three of his lowest total starts outright, with the over 2-1 in those games.
Early Fireworks
First Half Overs
First half overs have been the bet for the Cowboys this year. They are 14-1 to the first half over, which is the best mark for any team in the last 30 years.
Dak Prescott is also 11-3 ATS vs. Washington in his career, the best QB ATS vs. Washington in the last 20 years.
Same Old AFC East
Jets Big Home Dogs
As a double-digit favorite vs. the Jets, the Patriots are 14-1 SU and just 8-7 ATS dating back to 1980 – with their only loss coming back in 2006 when Tom Brady lost to Chad Pennington. As a road favorite of 13.5 points, this is tied for the largest road favorite for the Patriots in the Jets in franchise history, also doing so in 1977.
This season, the Patriots are 9-0 SU vs. teams under .500, winning by 12.9 PPG, and since 2020, Vrabel is 27-6 SU vs. bad teams. Since 2022, Vrabel is 15-5 ATS vs. teams below .500, the most profitable coach in the NFL.
Incentive Season
2025 NFL Bonuses, Records & Milestones
Incentive season has arrived. Here is a comprehensive list of bonuses, records, milestones and more for all 32 NFL teams updated daily through Week 18.
Dog Day Afternoon
Panthers Going For 9
All 8 of the Panthers' wins this season have come as underdogs — their 8th win as a dog is tied for the most by any team in the Super Bowl era – a record they could break this week against the Seahawks
Sad Pirate
Bucs ATS Losing Streak
Tampa Bay's 7-game ATS losing streak is their longest as a franchise since 1982-83 and their longest in a single season in franchise history.
Worst of the Worst
Nine To Nine
The Raiders have lost 9 consecutive games outright. Giants have lost 9 consecutive games outright. This is the first game in the Super Bowl era between teams that have both lost at least 9 games in a row.
Public Strikes Back
Gone in 60 Seconds
According to Action Network's betting data, NFL teams getting 60% of tickets or more are 61-92 ATS (40%) through 16 weeks, with a $100 bettor down $3,633 for a -23.7% ROI.
But, the good news, these teams went 7-2 ATS last week, the best week of the year for the public — the 2nd week above .500 ATS for these 60%+ ticket teams this season.
Every NFL Game For Week 17
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➤In the 15 total 1st halves for Dallas this year, the 1H over is 14-1. Here are the best 1H over or under marks for any team in the regular season since 2005:
2025 Cowboys, 14-1 to over
2019 Bucs, 14-2 to over
2024 Panthers, 14-3 to over
2020 Cowboys, 13-3 to over
2013 Falcons, 13-3 to over
2013 Titans, 13-3 to under
Over the last 30 years, this is the best start to the 1st half over for any team.
➤The Cowboys are on short rest, playing on Sunday last week. The Commanders are also on short rest, with an extra day to prep after facing the Eagles on Saturday.
Since 2000, we’ve only seen seven games where both teams were on short rest, but one had more rest than the other – the favorite went 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in those matchups.
➤When the Cowboys and Commanders face off with a higher over/under, Dallas has dominated those matchups – they are 15-5 SU when the total in their matchups is 45 or higher since 2000, winning 5 straight, including 12-1 SU in their last 13 meetings.
➤Another Cowboys game, another over last week.
• Dallas is 11-4 to the over this year, the best mark in the NFL.
• Dallas is 32-18 to the over in the last 3 seasons, also best in the NFL.
Dallas is 10-5 to the over on the road in the last two seasons.
The over is 7-0 in the 1st Half of the Cowboys' road games this season.
➤Commanders lost 29-18 at home vs. Eagles on Saturday in Week 16.
This season, Washington has played four games on short rest/prep time and they are 0-4 SU/ATS, the worst mark of any team in the NFL.
Since 2018, Dan Quinn’s teams are 2-8 ATS on short rest, 2nd-worst of 79 head coaches ahead of just Pete Carroll.
On the other side, Quinn has been listed as a home underdog 12 times as a head coach, his teams are 7-5 ATS, including 3-2 ATS when facing his own division.
➤The Cowboys were eliminated from playoff contention last week with the Eagles win at Washington.
Last week vs. Chargers, Dallas lost by 16 at home. In 2024, the week after they were eliminated Dallas lost to the Eagles 41-7.
➤Commaners are home underdogs vs. Cowboys after back-to-back games having to play on short rest (including this week).
Since 2000, underdogs playing on short rest, after playing on short rest in their previous game are 2-23 SU and 6-19 ATS, losing outright by 11.2 PPG.
➤Cowboys have covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 games against the Commanders, including five straight covers since the start of the 2023 season, covering the spread by 15.8 PPG.
Dak Prescott is 11-3 ATS vs. Washington in his career, the best QB ATS vs. Washington in the last 20 years.
➤Always a tough spot for Washington. After Washington faces either the Eagles or Cowboys and then has to play either the Eagles or Cowboys in their next game, they are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in the 2nd game vs. a division rival.
➤In Jared Goff’s career, he is 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS vs. the Vikings – his second-most profitable opponent ATS. In Week 9, Goff lost his 1st game ATS vs. Vikings as a member of the Lions.
When Goff has played the Vikings as QB of Detroit, he is 8-1 ATS, the best mark of any QB in the NFC North vs. Minnesota in the last 20 years.
➤When Goff and Campbell play inside of a dome on the road together, they are 10-2 ATS, covering the spread by 5.5 PPG.
Since the beginning of last season, Lions are 5-0 SU in this spot as well.
➤Commanders faced the Giants in Week 15 and then lost to the Eagles on short rest last week. The Vikings are now coming off a road game vs. Giants last Sunday.
Off Broadway: Teams off facing either the Giants or Jets in New York, and then have to play on short rest are 11-30 ATS since 2003.
➤At home over the last two seasons, Minnesota has done a pretty decent job at starting fast – they are 4-2 1Q ATS at home this year and 9-6 1Q ATS at home over the last two season.
➤Lions lost outright to the Vikings in their last meeting back in Week 9. Under Goff and Campbell, when the Lions lose their last meeting vs. a team, they are 33-14 ATS in that next game, including 5-2 ATS this season and 7-3 ATS when facing an NFC North opponent.
➤On any extended prep time in his career as a starter, Goff is 23-15-2 ATS, including 15-7 ATS with the Lions, covering the spread by 3.9 PPG.
This week, Lions are on short rest vs. Vikings. With the Rams, Goff was 5-6 ATS on short rest, with the Lions he is 8-4 ATS, including 3-0 ATS off a SU loss.
➤The Lions have won 31 consecutive games outright when leading entering the 4th quarter. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions started 0-2-1 SU in games leading entering the 4th quarter. They are 41-2 SU in their last 43 games, leading entering the 4th.
➤After the cover last week, JJ McCarthy is 5-4 ATS as a starter. Minnesota is 2-4 ATS with Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer.
McCarthy’s 5-4 ATS mark is 2nd in rookie QBs this year behind Tyler Shough, who is 5-2 ATS.
Since Dec. 1, when McCarthy starts, the Vikings are both 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS and 3-0 1H ATS, covering the 1H spread by 6.5 PPG.
➤The Lions had real trouble running the ball last week, with 12 carries for 15 total yards on the ground – their lowest rush yards total as a team since 2016.
Under Goff and Campbell, after the Lions rush for fewer than 100 yards in their previous game, they are 15-5 ATS in their next game, including 7-1 ATS when they face an NFC North opponent.
➤Lions are off a loss two weeks ago vs. Rams … and now a loss to the Steelers last week. Detroit has now lost back-to-back games for the first time since 2022 (when they lost 5 straight games.
Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 19-13-1 SU, 23-10 ATS off of a SU loss as a duo and they are now 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS off a loss in their last 16 games in that spot.
One of the reasons for Detroit’s skid? The defense. Lions have now allowed 27+ pts in 5 straight games, the first time that has happened for them, also since 2022.
➤Chiefs are up to a 13-pt home underdog vs. the Broncos this week, which would be tied for their biggest home underdog in franchise history.
Biggest Chiefs Home Dog Franchise History (Above +12)
+13, 1977 vs. Raiders – Ken Stabler for OAK (OAK won 37-28)
+12.5, 1977 vs. Colts – Bert Jones for BAL (BAL won 17-6)
+12.5, 1976 vs. Steelers – Terry Bradshaw for PIT (PIT won 45-0)
The most recent example of a Chiefs big home dog would be in 2011:
+11, 2011 vs. Packers – Aaron Rodgers vs. Kyle Orton (KC won 19-14)
Since 1980, Chiefs are 7-0 ATS as a home dog of above 9 pts.
➤Covering the spread hasn’t been an easy task for the Chiefs lately.
Chiefs are on a 7-game ATS losing streak, which is tied for the longest ATS losing streak this season with the Bucs – who are also currently on that bad stretch.
Crazy enough, KC has lost 7 in a row ATS now in back-to-back seasons, also doing so last year in almost the same time period, in Weeks 8-14.
KC is the 1st team to have a 7+ game ATS losing streak in consecutive seasons in the Super Bowl era.
➤Bo Nix has started four career games for the Broncos where the over/under closed at 45 or higher – Denver 1-5 SU/ATS in those games.
In all other games with lower totals, Nix and the Broncos are 21-6 SU and 17-10 ATS, with Denver winning 10 consecutive games outright in this spot.
➤Broncos are off an outright loss at home last week – with Bo Nix at QB, they are 6-3 ATS off of a loss, covering the spread by 13.2 PPG.
As a franchise, Denver hasn’t done well in this spot though. When Denver is good (66% win pct or better) and is coming off a home loss, they are usually overvalued, going 3-7 ATS since 2003, failing to cover by 5.3 PPG.
➤When Patrick Mahomes is the QB, we have all been used to the Chiefs domination of the AFC West, as he is 36-8 SU in his career.
This season, the Chiefs are 1-3 SU vs. AFC West, which would be their first season under .500 vs. their own division since 2013. Since 2020, this will be their 4th game vs. AFC West without Mahomes, they are 1-2 SU in those games, losing by 18 PPG.
➤Dating back to the start of the 2024 season, Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS vs. AFC West, the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL from a profit standpoint, only ahead of the Titans who are 2-9 ATS vs. AFC South.
Since the calendar flipped to 2022, KC is actually 6-16-1 ATS vs. AFC West – their 6 ATS wins vs. AFC West is the fewest vs. their own division for any team in the NFL.
Just looking at the Broncos, since that 2022 date, KC is 1-7 ATS vs. Denver in that span, including losing four in a row ATS, their longest ATS losing streak vs. Denver since 2002-03. They haven’t lost five straight ATS vs. Broncos in franchise history.
➤The Packers, Chiefs and Seahawks are all 11-4 to the first half under this season, all tied for the best marks in the NFL in that category.
This would be the Chiefs first season above .500 to the 1H under since 2021.
➤A lot has been made of the Chiefs record in one-score games.
They are 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in one-score games this year. Prior to this stretch, they were not only 12-0 SU in 2024, but they had won 17 consecutive one-score games outright.
Since 1990, no team has finished a season 0-8 ATS or worse in one-score games.
➤The Chargers are looking for revenge. They lost to the Texans in their Wild Card game last year in Houston, 32-12.
As a head coach in the NFL, Jim Harbaugh is 29-15-3 ATS when he is avenging a loss to an opponent in their last meeting, including 9-4-1 ATS with the Chargers and Justin Herbert.
➤Texans are off a close call. A 14.5-pt favorite, who won by just two points last week.
Teams who were 14+ pt favorites the week before are actually 47-40-1 ATS over the last decade – but when that is a tight game, doesn’t bode as well, 7-8 ATS when margin was 5 or less and 4-6 ATS when margin was 3 or less.
➤Justin Herbert is trying to stop the stigma – and he has so far this season.
Last four years, Herbert is 9-15 SU vs. teams above .500, in Herbert’s career he is 15-23 SU vs. teams above .500 SU – but this year, he is 3-2 SU in this spot.
Of 115 QBs, since 2020, Herbert is the 2nd-least profitable on the moneyline vs. teams above .500, behind just Justin Fields who is 4-17 SU.
Taking it one step further – Justin Herbert had faced 35 teams in his career who made the playoffs that season prior to this year, he went 9-26 SU in those starts.
This year so far, he has faced four of those teams – and he is 3-1 SU.
➤Texans defense will be the story here, allowing just 16.6 PPG this season, best mark in the NFL by two full points.
Since the start of last season, Herbert has faced 7 teams allowing under 20 PPG and the Chargers are 5-2 ATS in those games – but in his career, he has faced ten teams allowing 17 PPG or less and he is 3-7 ATS in those games, which is probably more of a Harbaugh vs. his other coaches angle.
➤Chargers are coming off a win in Dallas last week. This season, teams coming off a road game in Dallas are 1-6 ATS, the 2nd-worst mark for any team in the NFL this year, with teams 0-7 ATS after playing in Denver.
Those teams coming off a trip to Dallas are failing to cover the spread by 9.6 PPG this season.
➤After last week, the Chargers are now 4-0 SU as underdogs this year, most wins without a loss for any team this year. This week, they are home favorites, where they are 9-3 SU over the last two seasons.
➤Texans have won 3 straight games outright as underdogs entering this game – the first time they’ve done that as a franchise since 2011 – they haven’t won four straight as dogs 2008-09 and haven’t done so in the same season in franchise history.
➤For the first time in his coaching career, Matt LaFleur could face Lamar Jackson – which usually isn’t a great thing for opposing coaches.
Lamar is 39-8 SU and 25-22 ATS when facing an opposing coach for the first time in his career, including 18-2 SU and 14-6 ATS when that game is on the road for Baltimore.
➤In 28 total games vs. the NFC, Lamar Jackson is 25-3 SU (14-13-1 ATS) – when that game is on the road, he is 14-1 SU and 10-5 ATS.
In Week 7 or later, Lamar is 19-1 SU vs. NFC, including 5-0 SU in Week 14 or later.
➤What a tough loss for the Packers last week, losing to the Bears in overtime in Chicago after blowing a 10-pt lead in the 4th quarter.
Under Matt LaFleur, Green Bay is 8-5-1 SU and 9-5 ATS in games after blowing at least a 6+ pt lead at any point in the game.
Overall, it isn’t easy to bounce back from something like this, this late into the season. Teams to trail by 10+ pts entering the 4th quarter and lose to a divsional opponent, are just 3-6 SU/ATS over the last 20 years.
➤Packers are now 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS vs. Bears in their last 14 meetings after the loss last week – how does GB do after facing Chicago? Well under Matt LaFleur they are 10-3 ATS, covering the spread by 5.4 PPG – but they’ve lost two in a row, after losing to Denver in Week 15.
LaFleur has only coached one game after a loss to the Bears and that was their playoff loss to the Eagles last year.
➤”Matt LaFleur and the Packers are great late in the season” – not so much lately.
After the loss to the Bears last week, Green Bay has lost 5 of their last 6 games outright in December or later, including the playoffs and are just 3-7 SU in their last ten games in this spot.
➤Packers continued their slow starts last week. They are now 5-10 to their team total over in the first half this season after scoring just 6 pts vs. Bears last week, that is tied with the Vikings for the worst mark in the NFC this season.
The Packers, Chiefs and Seahawks are all 11-4 to the first half under this season, all tied for the best marks in the NFL in that category.
➤This season, the Ravens are 0-7 SU when allowing 20+ points – the only other teams winless when their opponent scores 20+ pts are the Raiders, Browns and Giants.
This would be Baltimore’s 1st season in franchise history with no SU wins in this spot if it finishes that way.
➤The Ravens have not started fast at all this season. In 15 total games, Baltimore is 2-13 to their 1st half team total over, the worst mark of any team in the NFL.
In 9 home games in 2025, Baltimore is 0-9 to their 1H team total over, the worst mark in the NFL.
➤Another blown loss for the Ravens last week. For the 6th consecutive season, the Ravens have lost 2+ games outright when leading by more than one possession at any point in the game in a single season.
In total, Baltimore has blown 15 of these such games since 2020, most in the NFL.
➤This season, the 1st half under is 7-0 in Packers home games, the best mark for any team in the NFL, going under the total by 9.2 PPG.
➤The Ravens are under .500 SU entering this week, surprisingly enough.
Under Matt LaFleur, Packers are 37-14-1 SU vs. teams under .500, including 12-2-1 SU over the last two seasons and in the month of December, LaFleur is 12-2 SU.
➤Joe Burrow has faced the Cardinals in one meeting in his career as a starter for the Bengals and Cincinnati put up 34 points on the road, winning by 14 pts.
Burrow threw for 300+ yds, had 3 TD passes, with Ja’Marr Chase having 15 receptions for almost 200 yards in that game.
➤In Burrow’s career, he’s 47-34-1 (58%) against the second-half spread. He is 13-20 2H ATS since the start of 2023 after going 30-8-1 2H ATS between 2021–22.
➤Bengals had a very efficient week against the Dolphins last week, going 6-6 in the red zone with four passing TDs from Burrow.
Teams after going 6-6 or better in the red zone the previous week, who are 6+ pt favorites in their next game are just 1-5 ATS since 2007.
➤Heck of a bounce back for Bengals last week, off being shutout by the Ravens they scored 45 pts on the road.
Teams off a shutout are 7-0 ATS this season – but last 5 seasons, once teams get that initial positive bounce, they are just 8-17 SU/ATS in the game after that bounce.
One step further – after a team scores 45+ pts in their previous game and are 6+ pt favorites in their following game, they are 45-54-1 ATS since 2003, including 6-13 ATS when that team has a win pct of 60% or less.
➤Last week the Cardinals and Falcons game ended up going under the total, but overall, Jacoby Brissett games have leaned over recently, going 28-18 to the over since 2019, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind only Dak Precsott.
➤In the first half, the Cardinals have struggled recently on the road. In Brissett’s last three road starts, Arizona has been outscored 71-17, going 0-3 1H ATS in that span.
➤The slide continued for the Cardinals last week. Arizona is now 1-12 SU in their last 13 games and have now lost 7 in a row outright – Arizona’s only win in this span? On the road in Dallas.
When teams are on a 7+ game outright losing streak, facing a team under .500, they are 50-34 ATS, including 39-24 ATS when that team is listed as an underdog.
➤As a favorite of 7 pts or more, Joe Burrow has been anything but automatic. He’s closed -7 or higher twelve times as a starter and he is jus 7-5 SU and 4-8 ATS in those games.
Those 5 outright losses as a 7+ pt favorite are tied with Josh Allen for most in the NFL since Burrow was drafted – Burrow has 12 games in this spot, while Josh has 31 such games.
➤The story of this game will surely be the over/under – currently sitting at around between 34 and 35.
In Aaron Rodgers’ 276 career starts, this would be his lowest total in any game. Rodgers has won all three of his lowest total starts outright, with the over 2-1 in those games.
Lowest O/U Aaron Rodgers’ Career
37 – 2008 vs. MIN (W, 24-19)
38 – 2025 vs. CLE (W, 23-9)
38 – 2025 at NYJ (W, 34-32)
➤Since the start of last season, we’ve seen three games close with an over/under below 35 … and all three of those games featured the Browns at home.
Since 2002 division realignment, under is 13-6 in Browns home games when total is 35 or less.
➤ Browns have lost 22 consecutive regular-season games in Pittsburgh. Their last win came back in October of 2003 behind Tim Couch.
At home in the regular season vs. Pittsburgh, it has been a very different story. Cleveland has actually won 5 of their last 6 home games vs. Steelers outright, winning and covering their last 3 home games vs. Pittsburgh.
This is the Browns longest SU and ATS win streak at home vs. Steelers since 1990-93 when they won and covered 4 straight.
➤A tight loss for Cleveland last week against the Bills, losing by just 3 pts.
Last two seasons, Browns are 3-10 ATS the week after a one possession game, the 3rd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Chiefs and Titans.
➤Steelers are about a 3-pt road favorite vs. Browns this week.
Since the start of 2022, when the Steelers win the game outright, they almost always cover – they are 38-0 SU and 37-1 ATS, with their one SU win and ATS loss being the Jets game in Week 1 this year.
➤Steelers have been a good 1st half team this season, going 11-4 1H ATS, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind just the Patriots.
This is tied for Pittsburgh’s best 1H ATS start since 2005, where they also were 11-4, they are even 10-5 1Q ATS this season, too.
Steelers may be good in first quarter and first half ATS-wise, but they’ve scored 7 pts or less in the 1st quarter in 67 consecutive games.
➤Tomlin is in his bag on 4th down the last two weeks, going 5-5 combined in Pittsburgh’s last two games.
Tomlin is 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS after back-to-back games going perfect on 4th down – a decent omen for Pittsburgh.
➤Steelers failed to convert a red zone TD last week and still beat the Lions. Under Tomlin, they are 33-15 SU and 29-19 ATS the week after no red zone TDs, including 14-7 SU and 13-8 ATS after a win in that spot.
➤The Saints are streaking. They’ve won 3 straight outright and they’ve now covered 4 in a row.
New Orleans’ 1st 3-game SU win streak, with a 4-game ATS win streak since 2020.
Saints are just the 5th team since 2000 to win 3 straight SU and 4 straight ATS, as a team with a win pct of 33% or less, and the first since 2013, joining:
2013 Bucs
2011 Dolphins
2010 Lions
2009 Browns
➤The Titans beat the Chiefs last week to get their 3rd win of the season.
Tennessee has lost 11 consecutive games both SU and ATS after a SU win, which is the longest active ATS losing streak off of a SU loss in the NFL.
➤Saints are simply a different team with Tyler Shough starting at QB this season.
Overall, Saints are 5-10 SU and 7-8 ATS this season, but 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS when Shough starts and 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS when he doesn’t (all games started by Spencer Rattler).
➤At the end of the 1st quarter last week, the Saints and Jets were tied 3-3 with New Orleans favored, which makes them 2-13 1Q ATS this season, worst mark in the NFL, and they have yet to actually win a 1st quarter outright, sitting at 0-12-3 1Q moneyline entering this week.
Teams are 6-1 ATS in the 1st Quarter when hosting the Saints this season.
➤Titans have seen a bit of an up tick lately. Prior to firing Brian Callahan, Tennessee was 2-4 ATS – after the firing they are now above .500 ATS at 5-3, with two outright wins in the last three weeks.
➤The Titans have struggled vs. their own. This year, Titans are 1-4 ATS vs. AFC South, including 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against their own division, including 3-14 ATS since the start of 2023.
Outside of their own division, Tennessee has been better, at 6-4 ATS this season.
When Tennessee faces a non-divisional opponent, like they did last week, they have a little more success at 12-17-1 ATS.
➤The Titans have played six one-score games so far this season, they are 6-0 ATS in those games (2-4 SU), the only undefeated team ATS in that spot.
➤Titans have played 15 total games this year. In 11 of those games, they have faced teams currently in the top-8 seeds in either conference, they are 0-11 SU and 4-7 ATS in those games.
In the four games they’ve played vs. teams outside the top-8, Tennessee is 3-1 SU/ATS in those games.
➤The Jaguars are always a thorn in the Colts side. Since 2015, Indy is 3-17-1 ATS vs. Jacksonville. In that span, none of the ten Colts QBs are above .500 ATS vs. the Jaguars and Philip Rivers himself is 0-2 ATS in that spot.
At home in Indy, Colts are 2-7-1 ATS vs. Jaguars since 2015 – they are 40-38 ATS vs. all other teams in that span.
➤On the road vs. division opponents, Trevor Lawrence is 7-5 ATS in his career, with his highest road spread vs. AFC South being -6 against the Titans this year, a game Jaguars won 25-3.
Since the start of last season, Lawrence has started three games as a favorite of 6+ pts, Jacksonville is 3-0 SU/ATS in those games, covering by 13.2 PPG. Lawrence is the only QB 2-0 ATS or better in this spot.
➤Colts are 7-15 against the 1st half spread when facing an AFC South opponent since 2022, only team in the NFL with a worse mark vs. own division was Cardinals at 5-18 1H ATS vs. NFC West.
➤The Jaguars are white hot right now. Trevor Lawrence has 10 TDs and 0 turnovers in his last two games, 14 TD passes and 0 INT in his lsat four games.
Jaguars have 118 total pts in their last 3 games and have now 8 straight games of 25+ pts.
Overall, Jaguars are 8-11 in the red zone in their last two games. History says to ride the wave. Since 2020, teams off back-to-back games with 4+ red zone TDs are 30-12 SU and 26-16 ATS, including 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS this season.
➤Jaguars are 12-3 to their team total over this year, best mark in the NFL — including 7-0 on the road.
Jacksonville is 10-5 ATS through 15 games, 2nd-best ATS start in franchise history.
➤A good spot for Rivers this week? In his career, Philip Rivers is actually 25-9 ATS when his team is on short rest – of 226 QBs to start since 2003, that Rivers mark is the best in the NFL by a significant margin.
➤The Jaguars rush defense has been something to marvel at.
They are allowing just 87.3 yards per game, fewest mark in the NFL by three yards.
They are 3rd in rush EPA allowed and 2nd in rush success rate allowed.
Jacksonville is the only team in the NFL not to allow any player to rush for 75+ yards in a single game this season.
➤Jaguars had another big win vs. Broncos last week. Under Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars have been profitable ATS off a win.
20-13 ATS off a win
11-4 ATS off a win by more than 10 pts
➤The Bucs are falling apart and fast.
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games after starting 6-2 and after last week they have now lost 7 consecutive games ATS.
That 7-game ATS losing streak is their longest as a franchise since 1982-83 and their longest in a single season in franchise history.
Part of their late-season collapse has been the play of Baker Mayfield. Since the Bucs Week 7 loss to the Lions, here are some metrics for Baker:
37 of 39 QBs in completion pct over expected (CPOE) – ahead of just B. Cook and D. Gabriel
36 of 39 QBs in EPA + CPOE
32 of 39 QBs in adjusted EPA/play
➤Starting fast has been an issue for the Bucs this year. Tampa Bay is 4-11 against the 1st quarter spread, the 3rd-worst mark in the NFL.
This is a big difference compared to last year, where they went 11-6-1 1Q ATS.
➤The Bucs and Dolphins don’t play often, but when they do, Tampa Bay has dominated the series. Tampa has won and covered 3 in a row against Miami and in the last 30 years, they are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS vs. the Dolphins.
➤Bucs are off a huge loss against the Panthers last week. Todd Bowles-coached teams have struggled the week after facing a divisional opponent, going 16-25-2 ATS, including just 9-12 ATS with the Bucs.
Of 162 head coaches since 2003, Bowles 16-25-2 ATS mark in this spot is 2nd-worst ahead of just Mike Holmgren.
➤Mike McDaniel has had five QBs start for him while with the Dolphins: Quinn Ewers, Teddy Bridgewater, Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson and Tua Tagovailoa.
With Tua, he is 29-27 ATS
With all other QBs he is 4-8 ATS
➤The Bucs have not only lost three straight games outright, but all three of those games have come against NFC South opponents:
Lost 23-20 to Panthers
Lost 29-28 to Falcons
Lost 24-20 to Saints
Time for some good fortune? Since 2009, eight teams have been listed as a favorite after losing 3 straight games, all vs. division opponents, and those eight teams went went 8-0 SU and ATS, covering the spread by 15.8 PPG.
➤Tight spread games haven’t been the forte of Mike McDaniel and Miami. Under McDaniel, Miami is 16-25 ATS in games with a spread of 4 or less and in games when its 6 or less he is 18-30 ATS.
Since McDaniel became a head coach, only Brian Callahan (1-15 ATS) has a worse record in games with spread of 6 or less.
➤The Patriots success vs. the Jets continued in Week 11 this year.
New England is 17-2 SU in their last 19 games vs. Jets, including 25-4 SU since the start of the 2011 season. Since 2021, Patriots are 7-2 ATS vs. Jets and 11-4 ATS since 2018.
Drake Maye has faced the Jets twice as a starter for the Patriots, he is 2-0 SU/ATS, scoring 25+ pts in both games, covering the spread by 5.3 PPG.
➤The other big story of this matchup will be the spread. As a double-digit favorite vs. the Jets, the Patriots are 14-1 SU and just 8-7 ATS dating back to 1980 – with their only loss coming back in 2006 when Tom Brady lost to Chad Pennington.
This week, the Patriots are around 13-pt road favorites in the Jets, which would be one of their highest road lines in franchise history vs. Jets.
Patriots Biggest Road Favorite vs. Jets in Franchise History
-13.5, 1977 (L, 30-27)
-13, 2018 (W, 27-13)
-10.5, 1976 (W, 38-24)
➤Mike Vrabel is 36-11 SU and 29-17-1 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU with the Patriots and Titans.
This season, the Patriots are 9-0 SU vs. teams under .500 winning by 12.9 PPG, and since 2020, Vrabel is 27-6 SU vs. bad teams. Since 2022, Vrabel is 15-5 ATS vs. teams below .500, most profitable coach in the NFL.
➤Jets still don’t have an interception on defense. Just unreal. Now at 15 straight games, it is officially an NFL record for consecutive games without an INT.
Most Consecutive Games Without a Defensive INT since 1950
2025 Jets, 15
2024-25 49ers, 14
2024 Giants, 11
The Jets have forced just four turnovers this season, the fewest in NFL history through a team’s first 15 games – by 3 total TO’s, too, with the next closest team at 7 TO by this time of the season.
➤Patriots have started fast lately. In their last twelve games, New England is 11-0-1 on the 1st half moneyline after tying the Ravens 10-10 at the half last week.
Dating back to last year, Patriots are 14-1-1 in their last 16 games on the 1st half moneyline, including 13-3 1H ATS in that span, all starts made by Drake Maye.
New England is 12-3 against the 1st half spread this season, best mark in the NFL.
➤The road has been a friendly place for New England. They are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS on the road this year, the only undefeated road team SU in the NFL and tied with the Seahawks for the best ATS road mark in the NFL.
In his career, Drake Maye is 9-3 ATS on the road, the 2nd-best mark in the league over the last two seasons behind just Joe Burrow at 10-3 ATS.
➤Patriots needed a big comeback last week to beat the Ravens, coming back from 11 points down in the 4th quarter – New England’s biggest 4Q comeback since the 28-3 Super Bowl comeback vs. Falcons.
A normal sentiment would be to fade New England this week (and Seattle, too, who fit this spot), but teams who come back down 11+ pts, who also trailed entering the 4th quarter in a night game and then had to play on the road again, are actually 19-10 SU and 20-9 ATS in their next game.
➤Sam Darnold has been a favorite of 6 pts or more 12 times as a starter in the NFL. He is 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS in those games.
In the last 20 years, Darnold’s 12-0 SU mark as a favorite of 6 pts or more is the most such wins without a loss, passing Ryan Fitzpatrick (10-0 SU) a few weeks ago.
➤A theme Carolina probably doesn’t like, but it might be a good thing they are underdogs this week.
This season, Panthers are 8-5 SU as underdogs and 0-2 SU as favorites.
All 8 of the Panthers wins this season have come as underdogs — their 8th win as a dog is tied for the most by any team in the Super Bowl era – a record they could break this week.
➤The 1P ET window has been a friend to Seattle. They’ve won 8 straight outright at 1P ET, including 7-0 SU since the start of last season.
Under Mike Macdonald, the Seahawks are now 10-4-1 ATS on the road, including 6-2-1 ATS when playing on the East Coast.
➤Panthers are currently leading the NFC South despite being outscored by 50 points. Only 9 teams have ever made postseason with a point differential of -50 or worse. Last happened in 2021.
➤Since January of 2015, the Panthers and Seahawks have faced off a total of eight times and the over is 8-0, going over the total by 9.8 PPG.
➤This season, Carolina is 7-0 ATS after a SU loss, covering the spread by 11.8 PPG, the most wins without a loss ATS for any team this season.
When Carolina is off a win this year, they are just 2-5 ATS in their next game, failing to cover the spread by 8.2 PPG.
➤In Darnold’s career as a starter, he is just 9-14-1 ATS after facing a divisional opponent. Including 0-2 SU with the Seahawks after a SU win vs. an NFC West im his previous game.
➤The Sam Darnold resurgence has been unreal.
Darnold began his career 21-35 SU, including 8-15 SU vs. teams above .500.
In the last two seasons, he is now 26-7 SU, including 11-5 SU vs. teams above .500.
Darnold is 30-10 SU in his last 40 starts overall since start 2022, most profitable QB on the moneyline in the NFL.
➤It’s hard to find a game year-to-year with this bad of a matchup – the Raiders are 2-13, the Giants are 2-13 and they face off in Week 17 with the No. 1 pick basically on the line.
Since 1990, the latest we’ve seen a matchup with both teams owning a win pct of 13% or less was in Week 15 of 1993 between the Patriots and Bengals.
We’ve seen four matchups of teams both with a win pct of 13% or less in Week 11 or later in that span and the home team is 4-0 SU.
➤Raiders have lost 9 consecutive games outright. Giants have lost 9 consecutive games outright.
This is the first game in the Super Bowl era between teams that have both lost at least 9 games in a row.
➤No stat is more important to winning than a team total, it's hard to win without points.
Raiders are 5-10 to their team total over this season, tied for the worst mark in the NFL.
They were 10-7 to their TTO last year.
In the first half, Raiders are 3-11-1 to their team total over, 2nd-worst mark to the Ravens.
In Pete Carroll’s last two seasons in the NFL with the Raiders and Seahawks, his teams are 12-20 to their team total over.
➤Raiders were massive underdogs against the Texans last week and are now at home to face the Giants.
Since 2011, we’ve seen 113 games with a 14+ pt spread, last week vs. Texans was just the 2nd time where the underdog won or lost by 3 pts or less and had more yards and rush yds than their opponent – The other? Jags win over Colts in Week 18 in 2021.
Since 2015, teams who close at +14 or higher the week before, are 48-33 against the 1st half spread in their next game, including 5-1 1H ATS this season.
➤Giants are in a tough spot this week, especially given their record and state of the season.
Since 2010, teams to go from EST to MST or PST and play on the road in December or later are 52-72 SU (42%) – but it's worse than that.
When those teams are above .500, and fighting for playoff contention, they are 34-28 SU.
When those teams are below .500, and mostly packing it up for the year, they are 17-41 SU.
➤With Dart and Jameis, the Giants are 8-4 to the full game over and 1-2 to the over with Russell Wilson. In the first half, the Giants are 10-5 to the over this year, including 9-3 with Dart and Jameis.
➤The Raiders have had numerous issues this season, one is coming out of the locker room.
Vegas is 4-11 against the 3rd quarter spread, the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL, behind just the Dolphins.
This season, the issue for the Raiders have been the middle quarters. In the 2nd and 3rd quarters combined, Vegas is 10-20 ATS. In the 1st and 4th quarters, they are 17-15 ATS:
1Q: 8-7 ATS
2Q: 6-9 ATS
3Q: 4-11 ATS
4Q: 9-6 ATS
➤Giants might be without OL Andrew Thomas in this game. According to PFF, he is the 5th-best graded blocker in the NFL this season and in 448 pass block snaps, he’s allowed just one sack and two QB hits.
When Andrew Thomas doesn’t play for the Giants, here is their record by season, including 1-12 SU over the last two seasons:
0-2 SU in 2025
1-10 SU in 2024
2-5 SU in 2023
0-1 SU in 2022
2-2 SU in 2021
5-20 SU overall
➤When two bad defenses play with a total below 50 this late into the season, the under has been the play.
➤Josh Allen has faced the Eagles twice in his career, he is 0-2 SU and ATS in these games, failing to cover the spread by 9.8 PPG.
Of the 31 teams he’s faced…
• The Eagles are the only team Josh hasn’t beaten outright.
• Josh is 0-3 ATS or worse against just the Bengals.
Eagles have won and covered their last three games against the Bills since 2015.
➤This season, the Bills are 5-0 ATS when facing teams who are above .500 SU, the most wins without a loss for any team in the NFL.
Against teams below .500, the Bills are just 1-5 ATS this season.
➤For the 2nd time this season, the Eagles play a game on a road trip (2nd consecutive road game or later) – they beat the Vikings 28-22 back in October.
Since 2022, Eagles are just 3-6 ATS when playing on a road trip, but they started 0-6 ATS and have won and covered their last 3 games in this spot.
➤Josh Allen is tough to beat at home late in the regular season as Buffalo jockeys for playoff position.
In December or later in the regular season, Josh Allen is 16-4 SU at home, but he’s won 12 straight outright in this spot, including 14-1 SU since 2020.
This season, Josh Allen has played much better at home vs. road:
Home: 16 TD passes, 4 INT, 119.2 pass rtg, 34 20+ yd throws, 13 sacks
Road: 9 TD passes, 6 INT, 87.7 pass rtg, 18 20+ yd throws, 22 sacks
➤Starting fast for Philadelphia has been easier on the road this year. In home games, they are 2-5 1Q ATS, on the road they are 6-2 1Q ATS, the best mark in the NFC this year.
➤Late in the regular season, Nick Sirianni and the Eagles have struggled on extended rest going 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS, losing three straight outright.
A nice change for the Eagles this week. Philly has played five games on short rest this season, the most under Nick Sirianni and tied for the most for any team since 1990.
The last two teams to play 5 games on short rest in a season were the 2020 Bills and 2024 Ravens.
➤In Weeks 14 through 18, Jalen Hurts is 7-13-1 ATS in his career. Only active QB worse in that spot is Gardner Minshew, who is 3-10 ATS.
Hurts ATS by month
34-22-1 ATS in November or earlier
14-18-1 ATS in December or later
Hurts has covered two straight vs. Raiders and Commanders in December or later – in his career he’s never covered three straight this late into the season.
➤Historically, Josh Allen has performed well in terms of wins and losses when facing good defenses.
When defenses allow under 20 PPG, Allen is 29-9 SU in his career, the 4th-most profitable mark on the moneyline for any QB since at least 2003, behind just Tom Brady, Sam Darnold and Peyton Manning.
In the regular season at home vs. good defenses, he is 14-3 SU in his career.
➤Bills are 4-11 against the spread in the 1st half this season — tied for the worst mark in the NFL with the Saints.
This season, Josh and the Bills are just 1-6 1H ATS at home in Buffalo.
➤Since 2022, the Bills are above .500 to their team total over at home in each of the last four seasons, for a total of 25-13 TTO at home in that span.
2025: 4-3 TTO
2024: 8-2 TTO
2023: 6-5 TTO
2022: 7-3 TTO
➤Since Brock Purdy came back from injury and replaced Mac Jones, the 49ers are 5-0 SU/ATS, winning by double-digits in each game.
This is Brock Purdy’s first 5-game ATS win streak of his career and San Francisco’s first 5-game ATS win streak since 2022.
➤Even with extra rest, not the best spot for the Bears to win outright.
Teams on any extended prep (8 days or more), facing a team on short prep (6 days or less), when that team who is on more prep is a road underdog is 12-39-1 SU and 23-29 ATS dating back to 2003, failing to cover the spread by 2.6 PPG.
➤Brock Purdy has started ten games in his career as a starter for the 49ers where San Francisco is on short rest, as the Niners faced the Colts on Monday Night Football last week.
Purdy is 7-3 ATS in those games, with all ten games coming in as the favorite for Brock.
➤Chicago just beat the Packers in an unbelievable comeback at night last Saturday – now they try to win again.
Bears won on the road at night against the Commanders back in Week 6. Chicago hasn’t won consecutive road games at night in the same season since 2015 behind Jay Cutler.
➤This season, the 49ers are 10-0 SU over the full game when leading at the half. Only four teams are undefeated SU when leading at the half this year: 49ers, Chargers, Bills and Saints.
San Francisco’s 10-0 SU mark is the most wins without a loss for the 49ers since at least 1990.
➤Bears have eliminated a lot of stigmas for the franchise this year with Ben Johnson. This year, they are already 1-0 SU playing on the west coast, beating the Raiders.
Between 2019-24, Chicago went 2-7 SU playing in either MST or PST – with a win this week, Chicago would be 2-0 SU in that spot this year, their first season 2-0 SU or better since 1990.
➤The bounce back has never been easy … until now. After the Bears lost to the Packers in their first meeting, they came out and blew away the Browns, 31-3.
Chicago is now 2-12 SU vs. Packers in their last 14 meetings, including 3-11 ATS in those games. Since 2019, Chicago is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after facing Green Bay.
➤ This will be Caleb Williams’ 6th career NFL start on extended rest, including this week, all six have come on the road and all six the Bears have been underdogs. Bears are 2-4 SU/ATS in those games, with Chicago scoring 15 pts or less in their first 3 matchups and 21 pts or more in their last 3 games in this spot.
Caleb started his career 0-4 SU at night in primetime. Entering this week, he’s now won two straight outright at night.
➤Ben Johnson is now 9-5-1 ATS as head coach of the Bears, profiting a $100 bettor $333 this year. That is currently the highest ATS mark for any Bears head coach since Mike Ditka, who was there btwn 1982-92 and ten games above .500 ATS.
Maybe one of the more impressive marks for Johnson is that Chicago is 6-3-1 ATS off a win this year.
This is a different Bears offense. They are 11-4 to their team total over this year, tied for the 2nd-best mark in the NFL with the Cowboys and behind just the Jaguars.
➤Bears have been extremely turnover-friendly this year and that just continued last week. They are +21 in turnover differential this year, best mark in the NFL by 6 total TO.
The stat that has helped the Bears TO differential? Their interception numbers.
• Caleb Williams holds the NFL record for fewest interceptions in a QB’s first 1,000 career pass attempts (12) and with 23 pass TD and just 6 INT so far this year, he could be the 1st Bears QB in history with 25+ pass TD and less than 10 INT.
• Since 2011, only one team has finished a season with 21+ INT on defense and a 21+ turnover margin: 2019 Patriots
➤The Bears are 11-4 SU this season, but their strength of victory sits at just 38.2%, which is the lowest mark in the top-7 seeds in the NFC.
When facing teams above .500 this year, Chicago is 3-1-1 ATS, with their only outright loss in that spot coming to the Packers on the road.
➤Rams lost a nailbiter on the road vs. Seahawks last week on Thursday Night Football – not many coach are better ATS after a SU loss than Sean McVay.
He is 32-19-1 ATS off a loss, that is the best record for any coach since McVay entered the league in 2017.
When that game off a loss is at night, he is 8-4-1 ATS.
➤Last week, the Rams blew a 16-pt lead in the 4th quarter to the Seahawks. Under McVay, Rams are 4-0 SU/ATS after blowing a game with more than a one-possession lead (9 pts or more) in their previous game.
➤Kirk Cousins is back on Monday Night Football this week.
Since 2020, Kirk Cousins is 18-34 ATS playing indoor games, including 5-13 ATS over the last three seasons. Since 2020, Cousins is the last of 100 QBs ATS playing indoor games.
Cousins had historically had his issues on Monday Night Football. In his career, Cousins is 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS on Monday Night Football, but that has changed recently, where Kirk has actually won 5 of his last 6 starts on MNF outright and with the Falcons, he is 2-0 SU on MNF.
Cousins began his career 0-9 SU/ATS on MNF.
➤Big home underdogs on Monday Night Football have performed well. When teams close above a full TD underdog at home (+7.5 or more) on MNF, they are 15-7 ATS since division realignment in 2002.
This would actually be the first we’ve seen since 2020 – where we had three such games due to no crowds during the pandemic – all three covered at home.
➤McVay’s last run in December this week.
As a head coach, Sean McVay is 28-12 SU and 28-11-1 ATS in the month of December, including now 3-0 ATS in 2025. Since the start of 2021, McVay is 18-3 ATS in December now.
➤The question is always the same with the Falcons: Can they do it again? Last week, they did, winning back-to-back games outright. After a SU win they are now 2-3 ATS this season.
Falcons haven’t finished a season above .500 ATS after a SU win since 2019 – they are 12-24-1 ATS after a win since 2020, the worst mark for any team in the NFL.
Overall, Atlanta is 8-7 ATS this season – Falcons have only finished above .500 ATS in one of their last 8 seasons dating back to 2017 – in that span, Atlanta is 62-86-1 ATS, losing a $100 bettor $2,889, the worst mark of any team in the NFL.
➤After facing the NFC West, McVay’s Rams are 32-17-4 ATS in their next game, above .500 ATS after facing each of the three teams in the division individually.
13-4 ATS after Cardinals
10-6-1 ATS after Seahawks
9-7-3 ATS after 49ers
➤Kirk Cousins has faced a Sean McVay-led Rams team three times in his career, Kirk’s teams are averaging 27 PPG in those matchups, scoring 23 pts or more in all three games with 5 pass TD, 1 INT, throwing for 300+ yds in his last two games vs. Rams.
➤Matthew Stafford has started twelve road/neutral games on Monday Night Football, including the playoffs in his career, he is 8-3-1 ATS – the 3rd-best mark of 126 QBs since 2003 behind just Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson.
➤How big is the Davante Adams injury for the Rams?
• Entering Week 17, Adams leads NFL in receiving TDs with 14. Next closest is Amon-Ra St. Brown with 11.
• In the red zone, Davante still leads the NFL in targets with 32 – two more than any other player with 12 total TDs. Of those 32 targets, 26 were 1st read/designed, where Davante was the main look on the play.
• In Week 16, Puka Nacua had 2 red zone targets and then Mumpfield, Ferguson and Davis Allen each had 1 a piece. Rams went 3-6 in the RZ (50%) vs. Seahawks, they were 42-63 (67%) entering this game.
Davante’s 32 RZ targets are still 14 more than 2nd on LA, Colby Parkinson with 18.
➤Teams coming off a road game in Arizona facing the Cardinals are 15-7 ATS over the last three seasons, above .500 ATS in each of the three years – that 15-7 ATS mark is tied for the best in the NFL.
➤The Falcons defense has gotten to the QB at a very efficient rate this season. Their 50 total sacks is 2nd in the NFL behind just the Broncos. Last season, Atlanta had just 31 total sacks on defense, the 2nd-fewest mark in the NFL.
The franchise record for sacks in a season is 55, which is 5 away with two games to go.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: A theme of this article, fade teams that need to win this week.
Matches: WAS, MIN, BAL, MIA
System: Windy games with low totals, go under. Make sure to check updated weather and lines on Action Network before we get to gameday. As of now, here are the matches: DEN/KC, PIT/CLE, NO/TEN
Matches: Check current lines.
System: We have some good games and some bad games this week. In the bad games, take the home team.
Matches: WAS, TEN, CIN, MIA, LVR
System: The Chiefs are struggling, especially on offense. Now is the time to back them, first half that is.
Matches: KC
System: Both the Texans and Eagles were big favorites last week and are now underdogs this week — a good omen for their big matchups.
Matches: HOU, PHI
System: We have some big home underdogs this week. Go get 'em.
Matches: KC, NYJ, CAR, ATL
