Last week in the NFL, I zeroed in on the 1:00 p.m. ET slate on Sunday. But for Week 10, I'm spreading my picks around in the afternoon slate for Ravens vs Vikings, Cardinals vs Seahawks and Lions vs Commanders.
Let's get into my NFL Week 10 picks and predictions for Sunday, November 9.
NFL Week 10 Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ravens vs Vikings
One of the best bets in the NFL since Lamar Jackson entered the league has been backing the Baltimore quarterback against the first-half spread.
Just take a look at some of these gaudy numbers, especially as a favorite:
- Overall: 61-36-2 ATS (62.9%) covering by 2.8 PPG
- As a favorite: 53-30-2 ATS (63.9%) covering by 3.2 PPG
- As a favorite away from home: 28-10-1 ATS (73.7%) covering by 4.5 PPG
The average cover margins as a 1H favorite are particularly absurd. Jackson will also have extra time to get even healthier after last playing on Thursday.
Expect him to look close to 100% with full mobility on Sunday in Minneapolis. Plus, the Ravens offense is now 100% healthy with all of the pieces back in action that Baltimore has been lacking to run all of the formations that have given opposing defenses fits in recent seasons.
The same can be said of the defense, which has played at a high level since getting back to full health and making some tweaks in the secondary.
- Weeks 1-5: 30th in EPA per Play, tied with the Bengals; 32nd in Drop Back EPA.
- Since: 7th EPA per Play; 4th Success Rate; 9th Drop Back EPA
The addition of Alohi Gilman has helped on the back end and the recent trade for Dre'Mont Jones will only help up front. The run defense is still lacking due to the season-ending injury to stud defensive lineman Nnamdi Madubuike, but it's not like the Vikings have an overly efficient rushing attack, ranking 20th in Success Rate and 20th in EPA.
Baltimore has been starting to blitz a bit more in key situations to compensate for a lack of a natural pass rush, which could cause issues for J.J. McCarthy, who has looked lost against the blitz in his young NFL career.
While McCarthy looked better last week in Detroit, he didn't have to do much. That result had more to do with some of Detroit's recent struggles, in addition to a brilliant blitz-heavy game plan from Brian Flores that wreaked havoc on Jared Goff.
I'm not sure that the same approach can work against Jackson, who has consistently destroyed the blitz of late. This season, he's completing 78.7% of his passes (highest by far) against the blitz with seven touchdowns to just one interception. And he has that sparkling completion percentage even with the fourth-highest aDOT (and second-highest yards per attempt).
Flores did get the best of Lamar on a Thursday night in Miami a few years ago after Jackson shredded him in the first meeting, so I can't wait to watch the rubber match. The extra time to prepare should really benefit Baltimore's offense this time around.
Plus, the Ravens' electric run game, which ranks No. 1 in explosive rate, should find some big plays against a Vikings defense that can be exploited in that department.
Time after time, the Ravens have jumped on teams early in this spot, especially against NFC defenses that aren't used to seeing Jackson's speed and/or Baltimore's unique offense.
The Ravens are usually very well prepared under John Harbaugh, which has helped boost their impressive first-half results. I think this is a good spot and matchup to buy the Ravens.
Trending: With extra time to prepare, Harbaugh has gone 22-14-1 against the first-half spread, including 10-3 ATS (76.9%) as a road favorite, covering by a field goal per game.
Pick: Ravens 1H -2.5
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Cardinals vs Seahawks
For starters, I am a believer in the Seahawks. I do believe they are a real threat in the NFC that can make it to Levi's Stadium in February.
The offense is humming with Sam Darnold under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. And the defense is menacing under head coach Mike Macdonald, who has an elite front that can generate pressure without blitzing, providing him with so much flexibility on the back end, where Seattle has an abundance of talent.
The Seahawks have one of the most well-rounded rosters in the NFL.
With that said, I believe we have likely hit the top of the market on Seattle, so I'm okay selling high here at what I consider its peak (although I've been wrong many times before).
Meanwhile, I maintain the Cardinals remain the league's most underrated team. The perception of who this team is compared to who they actually are couldn't be further from the truth.
They are a couple of bad bounces away from being at the top of the standings in the ferocious NFC West. Plus, the offense undoubtedly operates at a much higher level with Jacoby Brissett at the controls.
Since Week 6, when the veteran backup took over under center, the Cardinals rank 11th in EPA per Play, ninth in Success Rate and 11th in Rush EPA. Over the first five weeks, those rankings were 13th, 23rd and 20th.
The fact that the rushing offense has been that much better without Kyler Murray's legs (in addition to a number of key RB injuries) speaks volumes to how much better the entire operation is working. They are using play-action and more jump sets that have really unlocked Marvin Harrison Jr., who finally seems engaged.
Brissett also is avoiding the negative plays (he has the lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the league) that Arizona saw way too frequently with Murray, especially in the previous meeting against Macdonald.
Over the past two seasons, the Cardinals went 0-3 against the Seahawks, with Murray being a main culprit for those defeats. In those three contests, he threw five interceptions and was sacked 13 times while averaging 6.4 yards per attempt.
Additionally, the Cardinals defense matches up extremely well with Seattle's unique offense that has consistently burned opposing defenses with play-action from heavy sets that have led to countless explosive plays.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been almost unstoppable in every game this season — except for the first matchup against Arizona. The Cardinals have one of the most well-schooled defensive schemes in the NFL. They limit explosive plays through the air and can contain Seattle's inefficient rushing attack without having to change structurally.
That's critical even if they have to make do without cornerbacks Will Johnson and Max Melton. Darnold has been particularly deadly against the blitz, but he won't see much of that from Arizona.
Those two would certainly be missed, but Arizona was extremely shorthanded at cornerback in the first meeting when it held the Seattle offense in check.
Plus, the Cardinals have since seen Walter Nolen make his NFL debut. The 2025 first-round draft pick, who flashed in his NFL debut on Monday night, gives Arizona even more juice along its defensive line.
While Seattle's defense has performed at a high level this season, don’t sleep on the loss of Ernest Jones (doubtful) at linebacker for the Seahawks. That’s a pretty impactful loss at the second level, and someone who has been the heartbeat of the defense.
I'll happily take the +7 with the road divisional 'dog that hasn't lost a game by more than four points all season, with three losses on the final play of the game.
Trending: Since 2019, the Cardinals have gone 29-12-2 ATS (70.7%) as a road underdog, covering by an average margin of over five points per game. They are the most profitable road pup over that span by a wide margin. During that same time period, the Seahawks have gone just 23-31 ATS (42.6%) at home.
Pick: Cardinals +7
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Lions vs Commanders
Do the Commanders have a terrible defense? Yes. Are they dealing with lots of injuries? Also, yes. Are they playing without their star quarterback and receiver? You bet.
So, why in the world am I backing Washington?
The number matters and I just can't get to a touchdown or greater here.
If these two teams were both relatively healthy, I believe a fair number would be around Detroit -3.5. So, now you must ask yourself how much Jayden Daniels is worth to the spread? I'm only at around three points at the moment. It's not like the Commanders offense has been firing on all cylinders with Daniels this season.
Plus, Mariota is one of, if not the best, backup in the league who has demonstrated many times he can operate this offense with great efficiency. He also has mobility, so it doesn't change the Commanders' playbook or approach drastically.
If we just look at this season, Mariota ranks 21st out of 36 quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE; Daniels ranks 23rd. If we expand that sample size to include all quarterbacks with a minimum of 150 snaps over the past two seasons, Mariota ranks eighth while Daniels ranks 14th.
Over that span, they have the same exact Adjusted EPA per Play, while Mariota owns a higher Success Rate, Completion Percentage and Average Air Yards.
Am I saying Mariota is better? Absolutely not, but the drop-off isn't drastic.
Washington still has a functional and healthy offensive line and an extremely capable rushing attack that ranks seventh in Success Rate. It can move the ball and keep the clock moving on a Detroit defense that ranks below average in that department (17th).
I'd expect the Commanders to go with more heavy personnel and lean on that ground game on Sunday, especially with some of their injuries at wide receiver. It's also worth mentioning that Detroit's secondary still isn't at full strength.
Additionally, I do believe this Lions offense is extremely overrated at the moment. The interior offensive line is a major problem and there are even some injury concerns at tackle at the moment. Head coach Dan Campbell hinted at a shake up in the interior following the injury to Christian Mahogany.
That could prove problematic against the strength of this Washington defense by a wide margin. I'd also expect Dan Quinn and company to increase the frequency of A-gap blitzes after Minnesota spammed those last week. The Vikings finished that game with five sacks and 10 tackles for a loss.
Last week's performance continued a troubling trend for this Detroit offense. Since Oct. 1, the Lions rank 24th in Success Rate, 17th EPA per Play and 29th in Rush Success Rate. That last statistic is the most troubling for a unit that has been unstoppable on the ground in recent seasons.
That highlights the drop-off in quality along the interior of the offensive line, in addition to the departure of Ben Johnson. For what it's worth, the Bears offense ranks No. 1 in Rush Success Rate over that same stretch, with both teams benefiting from facing the Bengals' historically bad defense.
Washington remains vulnerable on the back end and has been decimated by injuries in the secondary, but it's not like any of those hurt players had been playing at a high level.
Marshon Lattimore, in particular, has looked completely washed. The Lions will still hit explosive plays, but the field and weather conditions can only benefit Washington in this matchup.
Yes, the Lions have covered 12 straight following a loss under Campbell, but they also lost outright at home to J.J. McCarthy after their bye week last Sunday.
This is just not the same Lions team at the moment. I'm buying low on the Commanders following three blowout losses and taking the points.
Trending: Since 2003, FG+ point underdogs on a current losing streak with an average cover margin of worse than -14 points over their previous four games have gone 57-34-3 (62.6%), covering by an average of 2.5 PPG.
Pick: Commanders +8.5
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