NFL Week 7 Main Slate Player Props: Continue to Exploit the Cowboys’ Defense (Sunday, Oct. 25)
Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: CeeDee Lamb.
NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets from across the industry against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past five seasons. Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 representing the largest betting edge.
Let’s break down five prop bets providing value for Sunday’s NFL Week 7 main slate:
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Green Bay Packers RB Jamaal Williams
The Pick: Over 24.5 rushing yards (-112)
Bet Quality: 8 out of 10
I love this prop because we can hit the over in a variety of ways. The easiest path to an over is if Aaron Jones is unable to suit up. He was a late addition to the injury report after injuring his calf on Thursday, and Jones was unable to practice on Friday. The Packers exercised caution when Davante Adams was injured earlier this season, so they may do the same with Jones this week.
If Jones is out, expect Williams and rookie A.J. Dillon to operate as his replacements. Dillon could potentially see most of the rushing attempts, but Williams would likely still see a few additional carries.
Even if Jones is active, Williams could still hit the over if he’s efficient. He’s coming off 34 rushing yards last week vs. the Bucs, and that actually came with his lowest number of carries this season. He logged at least six rushes in each of the previous four contests.
This is also an elite matchup for all of the Packers’ running backs. They’re taking on the Texans, who were absolutely smashed by Derrick Henry last week. Henry is obviously one of the best RBs in football, but the Texans still rank just 28th in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA.
Atlanta Falcons WR Russell Gage
The Pick: Over 3.5 receptions (+129)
Bet Quality: 10 out of 10
This game between the Lions and Falcons should feature plenty of offensive fireworks. Both teams have been subpar defensively, and both offenses have been potent to start the year. The Falcons are coming off a 40-point performance last week vs. the Vikings, while the Lions have scored at least 26 points in three straight games. Unsurprisingly, the total on this game sits at 55.0 points on DraftKings.
You could definitely look at some of the bigger names in this contest — Kenny Golladay, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, etc. — but I think the best bet involves Russell Gage. You can grab +129 on his reception prop of 3.5, which seems low given his usage to start the year. He’s operated as the clear No. 3 WR in their offense and played on 64% of their offensive snaps last week. He grabbed at least four catches for the third team this season, which is not bad considering he’s only played five full games. This line is simply too low considering the matchup.
Washington Football Team QB Kyle Allen
The Pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-117)
Bet Quality: 8 out of 10
This is one of the cheapest props on the board at the quarterback position, but I love Allen’s prospects this week. He threw the ball a whopping 42 times last week in a competitive game against the Giants and was able to record two passing touchdowns in his first full game of the season. Now, he gets to take on a Cowboys defense that has been unable to stop anyone. They’ve allowed a ridiculous 218 points through their first six games, which is more than any other team during the Super Bowl era.
I actually like the idea of pairing this prop with the odds on Terry McLaurin to score a touchdown. Touchdown props are typically some of the worst odds on the board, but it seems like McLaurin is a good bet to grab a touchdown if you think Allen can throw at least two of them. McLaurin has a huge advantage in this matchup according to Pro Football Focus and remains a target hog in the Washington offense. His odds to score at any points are currently listed at +150 on DraftKings.
Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb
The Pick: Under 61.5 receiving yards
Bet Quality: 9 out of 10
On the other side of this matchup, I am looking to fade the Cowboys wherever possible. Andy Dalton looked dreadful last week playing behind the Cowboys’ patchwork offensive line, and things don’t figure to get any better this week vs. Washington. Zack Martin and Brandon Knight have both been ruled out, which leaves the Cowboys without five of their best offensive lineman. Washington ranks third in adjusted sack rate this season, so they should be able to keep Dalton under constant pressure.
Lamb was still able to record 64 receiving yards with Dalton under center last week, but the Cowboys threw the ball a whopping 54 times in that game. Unless you think Washington can jump out to a big lead – which is possible but unlikely – expect a much larger workload for Ezekiel Elliott after he logged just 12 carries last week. That decrease in passing volume should funnel down to all of Dalton’s pass catchers.
Los Angeles Chargers TE Hunter Henry
The Pick: Over 3.5 receptions (-162)
Bet Quality: 8 out of 10
This is the priciest prop I’m targeting this week, but it still looks like an excellent value. Henry is coming off his best game of the season in Week 5 vs. the Saints, finishing with eight targets for four catches, 24 yards and a touchdown.
He should be able to build open that production this week vs. the Jaguars, who have been an abomination defensively this season. Jacksonville ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, and the Jags have struggled in particular vs. the TE position. They rank 23rd in DVOA vs. the position.
If you really want to exploit the Jaguars’ pass defense, you can also consider the over on Keenan Allen’s reception prop of 5.5. That prop owns a Bet Quality of seven in our Player Prop tool, and Allen has caught at least seven passes in each game that he’s finished with Justin Herbert under center.