Five NHL Prop Bets for Tuesday: Getzlaf Over/Under 2.0 Total Shots on Goal?
Jerome Miron-USA Today Sports
Tuesday night features a full slate of NHL action, with nine games starting at 7:00 p.m. ET or later, but the later games are especially intriguing. There are plenty of opportunities to look for some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are five props I’m eyeing for games at 8:00, 9:00, and 10:00 p.m. ET.
Jets C Mark Scheifele under 2.0 shots on goal
8:00 p.m. ET
We discussed Winnipeg today in the NHL Betting Guide and on Inside the Lab, so attacking an under in a brutal matchup against Boston shouldn’t be a huge surprise. The Bruins provide one of the least favorable matchups in the entire league for shots on goal props (27th percentile in shot attempts allowed), and Scheifele is hardly a high-volume shooter. Over the past month, he is averaging only 1.39 shots per game and has reached two or more shots on goal only three times in his last nine games.
Blue Jackets W Artemi Panarin over 2.5 shots on goal
9:00 p.m. ET
Panarin has averaged 3.23 and 2.94 shots on goal over the past month and year, good enough for the 96th and 93rd percentile in both categories. The matchup is favorable against Edmonton, which is allowing the second-highest Corsi on the slate over the past month. In fact, the Blue Jackets own the top Expected Corsi For today, so Panarin over 2.5 shots on goal is more than reasonable. He has registered three or more shots in 11 of his past 15 games.
Oilers W Leon Draisaitl under 2.5 shots on goal
9:00 p.m. ET
The Oilers are 6-2-2 over their past ten games after struggling mightily most of the season, but this line is a bit high for Draisaitl against the Blue Jackets. On today’s slate, Columbus has allowed the third-fewest Corsi over the past month, and Draisaitl has averaged only 2.29 shots per game over that same time period. It’s difficult to see him exceeding his monthly average tonight — Edmonton naturally owns a below-average Corsi Expectation — and over the past year he’s provided a middling 2.43 shots per game.
Oilers G Cam Talbot over 30.5 total saves
9:00 p.m. ET
Over the past month, Edmonton has seen its goaltenders accrue more than 30.5 saves in 11 of 14 games, and the Blue Jackets trail only the Hurricanes today with their 50.16 shot attempts per game. Talbot’s 34.8 Save Prediction in our Models leads the slate.
Note: Talbot is currently expected to start but has not been confirmed. Keep an eye on our Starting Goalies page for further updates on his status.
Ducks C Ryan Getzlaf under 2.0 shots on goal
10:00 p.m. ET
Over the past year Getzlaf has notably averaged 2.14 shots per game (79th percentile), but of all the players listed he has the second-lowest shot volume over the past month, averaging only 1.4 shots per game (45th percentile). The under could provide a solid matchup-based opportunity at the very least, considering that Getzlaf has registered only three shots total over his past five games. As a team, the Ducks own our third-lowest Expected Corsi For today and are facing a Vancouver squad that has allowed the sixth-fewest shot attempts over the past month of any team on the slate.
Pictured above: Ryan Getzlaf