The New York Rangers (19-18-5) and Florida Panthers (21-15-3) will face off in the NHL Winter Classic on Friday. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EST at loanDepot Park in Miami, FL. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Panthers are priced at +180 to cover the puck line (Panthers -1.5), with the over/under set at 5.5 (-115o/ -105u). The Panthers are -142 favorites to win outright, while the Rangers are +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Rangers vs. Panthers predictions and NHL picks.
Rangers vs. Panthers Odds, Pick
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -218 | 5.5 -115o / -105u | +120 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 5.5 -115o / -105u | -142 |
- Rangers vs. Panthers Spread: Panthers -1.5 (+180), Rangers +1.5 (-218)
- Rangers vs. Panthers Over/Under: 5.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Rangers vs. Panthers Moneyline: Rangers +120, Panthers -140
Rangers vs. Panthers NHL Winter Classic Preview
New York Rangers
The Rangers enter this high-profile matchup in the midst of a three-game losing skid, and as a result, now hold the worst points percentage (.512) in the Eastern Conference, though they are also only four points back of a playoff spot at the time of writing. They will have the opportunity to move to 6-0 all-time in outdoor games in this matchup, including a thrilling comeback in an eventual 6-5 overtime win over the New York Islanders in their most recent outdoor game.
New York saw its most important skater return to the lineup in Tuesday's matchup versus the Washington Capitals, as Adam Fox returned from a 13-game absence, recording a goal and an assist in a 6-3 loss. While Fox is not the fastest or most physical skater, his importance to the team is indisputable, looking at both the Rangers' actual goal differential and expected goal differential in his minutes.
The Rangers were able to tread water in Fox's absence, playing to a record of 6-5-2, with six of those matchups requiring overtime. As has been the case all season, they suppressed goals relatively well during that span, allowing just 2.88 goals against per game, but generated only 2.38 goals for per game.
Fox's absence from the Rangers' top power play unit was particularly significant, as they succeeded on just 13.5% of opportunities during his absence. While New York's defensive core has been fairly effective at suppressing scoring chances, Fox is by a wide margin the most productive blueliner on the team with 28 points in 28 games this season.
The Rangers suffered a tough loss on Tuesday as Noah Laba was injured after a heavy hit from Tom Wilson, and Laba joins captain J.T. Miller on the IR in this matchup.
While the Rangers undoubtedly need to create more offensively to sneak into the playoffs, head coach Mike Sullivan's side has limited high-danger scoring chances much more effectively than last season, which has helped Igor Shesterkin achieve greater surface-level statistics. Shesterkin holds a .910 save percentage and a 2.51 GAA in 32 appearances, with a +21.6 GSAx rating.
Florida Panthers
The Panthers put together a strong 9-4-2 record in December and, with Matthew Tkachuk set to return to the lineup in the near future, appear to be a pretty safe bet to avoid a surprising playoff absence after a slow start to the year. Tkachuk skated with the team on Thursday but was wearing a non-contact jersey and is still not expected to skate in this matchup.
Over the last ten games, the Panthers hold a 49.02% expected goal share in even-strength play and have generated just 2.75 xGF/60. While Aleksander Barkov and Tkachuk's absences are undoubtedly the greatest reasons for the team's somewhat modest start, the Panthers' defensive core has been worse than in years past, as Jeff Petry has struggled mightily, while, as noted by head coach Paul Maurice, Dmitry Kulikov's absence hurts more than is credited.
This could be the type of matchup to suit the eye of reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner Sam Bennett, who was snubbed from the Canadian Olympic team after playing a key role in the 4 Nations Face-off last February. Bennett has put up 17 points over the last 15 games, but his slow start to the season likely helped the Canadian head coach sway the team towards Anthony Cirelli as opposed to Bennett.
Sergei Bobrovsky will get the start in goal in Friday's matchup. Bobrovsky has played to a +4.8 GSAx rating and a .888 save percentage in 27 appearances this season.
Rangers vs. Panthers NHL Winter Classic Prediction
This likely will not be the most aesthetically pleasing Winter Classic the NHL has ever hosted, with the matchup taking place in the Miami Marlins baseball stadium. But the league has stated that the ice should be in good shape with temperatures in the low 60s at puck-drop and no shadows due to the nighttime start.
So, at least the ice should allow for a relatively high-quality matchup, and this game does have importance in the tightly contested Eastern Conference, which features no teams below .500 due to the wildly high amount of matchups that have gone to overtime this season.
The Rangers have required overtime a lot recently, which is not overly surprising considering their strengths and weaknesses. Shesterkin and their solid defensive play give them an avenue to hang around in any matchup, but they have rarely had enough offensive upside to blow teams out of the water.
It's hard for me to imagine the Rangers will ever win this game by a significant margin, but they should be able to lean on their strengths and make this into a competitive game, which will likely feature close scorelines throughout.
As noted, we have seen games going to overtime at a high rate this season, and this specific spot sets up as a good time to buy into that trend with DraftKings offering a long number of +295 for the game to require overtime.
Pick: 3-Way Tie +295 (DraftKings, Play to +310)
