Do Surging Avs, Flames Offer Futures Betting Value?

There are several teams in the midst of hot streaks right now in the NHL. Currently, 13 of the league's teams have won at least six of their last 10 games, and 12 of those teams earned a point in one of their losses. The standings in the NHL are always fluid, but things are getting especially wonky as we head toward the All-Star Break.

Two hot teams in particular, the Colorado Avalanche and Calgary Flames, deserve our attention. Both Calgary and Colorado have won seven games in a row and have put themselves in position to battle for a playoff spot over the next three months. But is it worth putting a futures wager on either team to win the Stanley Cup?

Colorado Avalanche

If the Vegas Golden Knights weren't in the midst of such an unbelievable season, the Avs would be a contender for the best story in the NHL this year. Colorado's horrendous campaign in 2016-17 was widely mocked, but we all knew the Avs were better than a 48-point team.

After a decent start this year, the Avs kind of tailed off before jettisoning one of their best players, Matt Duchene, to Ottawa in the beginning of November. It wasn't a white flag or anything, but rather a smart way to settle an issue that had dragged on for a year.  With Duchene gone, the team has gone 16-10-2, and Nathan MacKinnon has catapulted himself into the Hart Trophy conversation.

The former first overall pick's 54 points are tied for second in the entire NHL, and his 3.16 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 are second among players with at least 400 minutes of ice time.

With MacKinnon leading the way, the Avs have clawed their way into the playoff picture and are in the midst of a seven-game winning streak. The Avs' current run has obviously caught the attention of the betting market, as Jared Bednar's team, which opened at +12500, went from +6600 on Dec. 7, to their current price of +3300.

Chart courtesy of Sean Tierney

Things do look to be on the upswing in Colorado — not just for this season but big picture wise as well — but there are still red flags. Even though Colorado was dealt the short stick with their PDO (a measure of luck that gauges shot percentage and save percentage) last year, they've seen some major positive regression this year and have one of the top marks in the league.

Additionally, Colorado has had trouble all season controlling play, and they currently field a -10.46 expected goal (xG) differential on the year. While MacKinnon leads a charge of talented top liners like Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog,  the Avalanche just don't have enough in them to go from nice story to they may actually do this. 

Verdict: Pass

Calgary Flames

Coming into the year, the Flames had the look of a contender but for one glaring hole: goaltending. The defense looked like it would be one of the best units in the league, and with Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan leading things up front, the Flames had nearly all of the necessary ingredients.

In goal, however, things looked bleak, with 35-year-old Mike Smith tasked to backstop Calgary to contention.

Have we mentioned hockey is basically just black magic on ice yet?

Although it isn't surprising to see Calgary in second place in the Pacific with 54 points, they definitely didn't take the scripted path to get there. Smith has been one of the league's best netminders, while the much ballyhooed Calgary defense has underwhelmed. And yet here we are.

As inconsistent as their results were through the first half, Calgary has been a top-10 Corsi team this year, and they have the feel of a team that could put together a giant second half.

 Chart courtesy of Sean Tierney

There are some red flags with the Flames. Their defense has been poor and their fourth line prohibits them from being able to roll four lines without issue, but there's more good than bad here. And with the trade deadline still to come, there's still time for the Flames to improve.

Interestingly, Calgary was one of two teams (the other being the Nashville Predators) that had the same odds (+2800) on Opening Night as they did two months into the year on Dec. 7. At that point, the Flames were 14-12-2. Since then, the team has actually seen their price lengthen, they currently sit at +3300 (an implied probability of just about 3%), so the market is actually even more down on the Flames after a 10-4-2 stretch. Peculiar.

If you're not involved in the NHL futures market in the NHL and are looking for a way in for season's second half, there's some sleeper value on the Flames.

Getting into the postseason isn't a given with this team, but if Calgary does get into the dance and finishes in the top three spots in the Pacific Division, they will have a much easier path through the tournament than they would if they end up in the Central Division bracket.

Verdict: Play

All odds provided by BetOnline on Jan. 16, 2018.