The Pittsburgh Penguins (15-11-9) and Toronto Maple Leafs (15-15-5) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 4:00 p.m. EST at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Maple Leafs are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+105o / -125u). The Maple Leafs are a -142 favorite to win outright, while the Penguins are +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Penguins vs. Maple Leafs predictions and NHL picks.
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Odds, Pick
| Penguins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -218 | 6.5 110o / -130u | +114 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 6.5 110o / -130u | -135 |
- Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Spread: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+180 ), Penguins +1.5 (-218)
- Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Over/Under: 6.5 (+110o / -130u)
- Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Moneyline: Penguins +114, Maple Leafs -135
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Preview
Pittsburgh Penguins
Prior to beating the Canadiens on Sunday, the Penguins were on an abhorrent losing streak.
They had lost eight consecutive games, with four of them ending up in either overtime or a shootout. And yet, they still are just two points out of the final playoff spot. The Eastern Conference is something else, eh?
Led by Sidney Crosby, who isn’t slowing down as his age continues to ascend. At the age of 38, Crosby is averaging over a point per game alongside his forever-partner in crime, Evgeni Malkin. However, Malkin is on the IR, with no real idea of when he’s returning.
Pittsburgh hasn’t been all that bad at 5-on-5 offensive play. During this month, it ranks 14th with a 50.29 xGF%, but on the defensive end, it has certainly struggled with a 2.89 xGA/60.
The one aspect that keeps them as a significant threat is their third-ranked power play, where it scores just under 30% of the time.
Though the Pens have only scored twice in their previous 16 attempts, but have seemingly gotten off the schneid by scoring with the man advantage against Montreal on Sunday.
Goaltender Stuart Skinner hasn’t been very good since he arrived in the Steel City.
He’s only started two games, and he let up five goals on 22 shots faced against his old team in the Oilers. And following that, he let up three goals on 20 shots against the Canadiens.
As of this writing, it’s hard to tell if either Skinner or Arturs Silovs starts. Silovs has been up and down this season and is currently on a downward slope, playing exceptionally badly with an .812 SV% over his previous five games played.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto has been dealing with a season-long issue of inefficiency, and this past week was no different.
The Maple Leafs underwent a three-game road trip and lost all three games, getting outscored 14-4.
I have been gravely disappointed with captain Auston Matthews, who has only 14 goals this season. And while that is hardly a poor stat line, it’s poor for Matthews, who has registered 35+ goals in four straight seasons.
Winger William Nylander has continued to solidify himself as one of the best players in the league, as he’s averaging over a point per game and is fresh off three straight 40-goal seasons. Will he reach that number again this season? Hard to say, since he only has 11.
But everything else for this team has been brutal, as the Leafs have the league’s worst power play, only scoring 13% of the time. So I guess they did, in fact, need Mitch Marner.
Beyond that, the 5-on-5 play has struggled. Toronto has played at a bottom-10 5-on-5 rate on the offensive end and bottom-15 on the defensive end.
Goaltending has continued to be a concern, as Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz have been on the IR throughout the season. However, Woll is back and he shares the crease with Dennis Hildeby, who has been pretty solid so far.
I would expect Woll to get the nod, though, as he’s probably the better option with a .925 SV% and a 6.1 GSAx over the past 10 games.
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs Prediction
The odds are way too one-sided for me to lean any which way. So I’m going to hone in on one player in particular, and that’s Bryan Rust.
Rust has been one of Pittsburgh’s best players over the course of this extremely down stretch. He’s been icing a 6.1 expected goals mark, which is far more than the next player on Pittsburgh in Rickard Rakell.
“Rusty,” as his teammates call him, has been peppering the net, averaging 6.4 shot attempts, the second most on the team in the past 10 games.
Not only that, he finds himself in incredibly opportune times, with nine high-danger chances shot attempts unblocked, and leads the team in high danger expected goals.
We’re going to ride with Rust, who has been held goalless in his previous three games. I’m banking on him to light the lamp against a proverbial downtrodden Maple Leafs team.
Pick: Bryan Rust Anytime Goal Scorer (+200)
