The Philadelphia Flyers (18-10-7) and Chicago Blackhawks (13-16-6) will face off Tuesday evening on the NHL's massive 13-game slate, which will lead into a league-mandated three-day holiday break. Puck drop is set for 9:00 p.m. EST at the United Center in Chicago, Ill. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Flyers are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-115o/-105u). The Flyers are a -120 favorite to win outright, while the Blackhawks are +100 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Flyers vs. Blackhawks predictions and NHL picks.
Flyers vs. Blackhawks Odds, Pick
| Flyers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +210 | 5.5 -115o / -105u | -120 |
| Blackhawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -260 | 5.5 -115o / -105u | +100 |
- Flyers vs. Blackhawks Spread: Flyers -1.5 (+210), Blackhawks +1.5 (-260)
- Flyers vs. Blackhawks Over/Under: 5.5 (-115o/-105u)
- Flyers vs. Blackhawks Moneyline: Flyers -120, Blackhawks +100
Flyers vs. Blackhawks Preview
Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back after earning a 5-2 win on home ice over the Vancouver Canucks Monday. With the win, Philadelphia moved to 18-10-7, good for second place in the tightly contested Metropolitan Division, after finishing last season with a total of just 76 points.
Rick Tocchet deserves some flowers for the team's turnaround and is starting to look like an appealing target in the coach of the year market priced at +3000, though it may be tough for any coach to usurp Avalanche bench boss Jared Bednar given the team's incredible level of dominance.
Though it may not be the way the mainstream NHL media with voting capability views it, a gigantic reason for the Flyers' turnaround comes down to how much their goaltending has improved year-over-year. The Flyers received the worst goaltending in the NHL last season, prompting GM Daniel Briere to make a bet on Dan Vladar this offseason.
Vladar has been excellent, playing to a +14.6 GSAx rating and a .910 save percentage in 21 games played. Philadelphia ranked 12th in expected goal share last season and likely would have been a competitive side if it had a starter playing at this level.
Those notes are relevant entering this matchup given that backup Samuel Ersson will get the start in goal, and the gap between he and Vladar should remain quite significant. Ersson has played to a -1.1 GSAx rating with an .867 save percentage in 13 appearances this season and finished with a -19.8 GSAx rating and .883 save percentage in 47 appearances last season.
With Vladar in goal and if they were not playing the second leg of a back-to-back, the Flyers would surely be a much heavier favorite versus a Blackhawks side that will play without Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar in this matchup.
Another key reason for the Flyers' year-over-year improvement has been the play of newcomers Trevor Zegras and Christian Dvorak, who have both most commonly skated on the top line alongside one another. Zegras seemed to be an appealing buy-low candidate as 2024-25 Anaheim Ducks bench boss Greg Cronin seemed to be one of the worst coaches in recent memory, causing the majority of the Ducks' talented young forwards to vastly underperform.
Zegras has put up 36 points in 35 games this season, with a +5.6 expected goals above replacement rating, suggesting his defensive warts do not outweigh his ability to drive the play with his excellent vision and playmaking ability.
In 11 games this December, the Flyers hold a 51.11% expected goal share and have played to a record of 4-3-4. They will face a significant goaltending disadvantage given that the Blackhawks will likely start Spencer Knight but should be capable of outchancing the shorthanded Blackhawks even in a back-to-back spot.
Philadelphia offered a new-look second line of Denver Barkey, Sean Couturier and Owen Tippett in Monday's matchup, and the unit was highly effective, finishing with an 82.5% expected goal share in 11:10 of even-strength play. Tippett finished with a season-high ten shots on goal, including a beautiful goal off the rush to put the game out of reach.
Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks will be looking to put a halt to a five-game losing skid in this matchup, in which they have been outscored 20 to 9 and lost each game in regulation. Losing their clear-cut best player in Bedard and arguably their second-best forward in Nazar certainly has not helped, but the analytics suggest that this type of downswing may have been on the horizon for some time.
Over the last ten games the Blackhawks have played to an expected goal share of just 38.76%, which is the league's worst mark by a margin in that span. They have allowed 31.31 shots against per 60 in that span, in a year where shots on goal have continued to trend downwards due to both change in tactical style and more strict shot tracking, as most shot prop bettors are surely aware.
With Bedard and Nazar sidelined, the Blackhawks' offensive core has a distinct lack of upside, and Bedard's absence certainly draws attention to just how brilliant his season has been. Bedard leads the team with 44 points, while the next closest skater, Tyler Bertuzzi, has put up 26 points.
Skaters such as Andre Burakovsky and Bertuzzi are useful in complementary roles, but the team is not offering many play drivers capable of helping it own much of the overall run of play currently.
As noted though, Knight could prove to be a significant equalizer in this matchup if what should be a very desperate Blackhawks outfit can limit high-danger scoring chances somewhat respectably. Knight holds a +17.3 GSAx rating and a .914 save percentage in 24 appearances this season, and if the NHL media put more weight on team environment, which is simply not the case, he would have a solid chance of winning the Vezina Trophy.
Flyers vs. Blackhawks Prediction
This is a spot that could lend itself to a rested home side desperate to snap a five-game losing skid, but it's still hard for me to consider backing the Blackhawks given how bad their play has been of late and the lack of talent in the forward corps right now. Knight does offer a significant edge over Ersson, however, which makes me believe the Flyers are also not worth backing in this matchup.
An angle that does look appealing is backing Tippett to record over 2.5 shots on goal at +115 following his dominant performance on a new-look line Monday. Tippett can be a streaky player and his shot volume has been down recently, but he still leads the Flyers in shots on goal per 60 this season, as well as shot attempts per 60.
The Blackhawks have allowed the third most shots against per 60 this season and have been even worse in that regard of late.
Pick: Owen Tippett Over 2.5 Shots on Goal +115 (bet365, Play to +110)
