The Calgary Flames (15-17-4) and Edmonton Oilers (18-13-6) meet for the Battle of Alberta on Tuesday evening. Puck drop is set for 9 p.m. EST at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Oilers are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-105o/-115u). The Oilers are a -165 favorite to win outright, while the Flames are +140 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Flames vs. Oilers predictions and NHL picks.
Flames vs. Oilers Odds, Pick
| Flames Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | +140 |
| Oilers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | -165 |
- Flames vs. Oilers Spread: Flames +1.5 (-180), Oilers -1.5 (+150)
- Flames vs. Oilers Over/Under: 6.5 (-105o/-115u)
- Flames vs. Oilers Moneyline: Flames +140, Oilers -165
Flames vs. Oilers Preview
Calgary Flames
This rivalry matchup comes at an interesting time, as both sides have offered considerably better form recently than they have throughout the majority of the season. The Flames have played to a record of 10-4-1 over the last 15 games and have trended upwards most notably from an offensive perspective, averaging 3.40 goals per game in that span.
Calgary has generated 30.32 shots on goal per 60 during its 15-game heater and generated 3.82 xGF/60. There is a distinct lack of high-end talent on the roster, but it does offer three lines capable of forechecking effectively and is good at working low-to-high in the offensive zone before creating chaos in front for point shots from the defensive core.
In contrast to the Oilers, the Flames' process certainly revolves around attempting to outwork the opposition shift after shift and leaning on an aggressive forecheck to create turnovers in the offensive zone.
They do not generate a ton off of the rush, but their approach of pouring plenty of middling chances could be effective versus an Oilers side that is not overly adept at clearing out the net front and will have a fairly unconvincing starter in Calvin Pickard in goal.
While the Flames do appear to have some legitimate edges in this matchup, they will need to hold Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl's offensive units relatively in check in order to find success, as well as the Oilers' scorching hot power play, and that may prove quite difficult.
Dustin Wolf is expected to get the start in goal for the Flames. Wolf has played to a +2.0 GSAx rating and .896 save percentage in 27 appearances this season.
Edmonton Oilers
Connor McDavid enters this matchup in the midst of one of the best offensive stretches of his career, as he's racked up 12 goals and 26 points over the last 11 games to overtake Nathan MacKinnon for the NHL's scoring lead.
McDavid has been aided by the returns of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman, who have been skating alongside the Oilers captain at even strength.
Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman also both skate on the Oilers' top power play unit, which has succeeded on 38.9% of opportunities in the month of December.
Power play results can be highly volatile, but it's a safe bet to assume that the Oilers' top unit will remain among the best in the league the rest of the way given that with Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman now healthy, it's the same unit that has been terrorizing the league for years.
Leon Draisaitl has also been on fire of late with 21 points in the month of December, and his even-strength unit currently looks more threatening offensively with Jack Roslovic also back from injury. Roslovic has put up 10 goals and 18 points in 24 games this season and offers Draisaitl another high-upside forward to play with.
The Oilers are not without their flaws, however, as the defensive corps still looks fairly unconvincing playing inside of their own zone, while the bottom six is a significant concern, and the Flames should generate plenty of looks versus Adam Henrique and Trent Frederic's lines in this matchup.
Goaltending also remains a huge concern for the Oilers with Tristan Jarry injured, as Connor Ingram will start in goal in this matchup.
Personally I'd agree that it makes sense for the Oilers to see what they have with Ingram as opposed to starting Calvin Pickard, but Ingram is still far from a proven option right now given that he holds the worst save percentage in the AHL among qualified goaltenders this season.
Ingram stopped 28 of 31 shots faced in a solid season debut versus the Vegas Golden Knights on Sunday and has been an effective NHL starter in the past but is certainly still a question mark at this point.
Flames vs. Oilers Prediction
This seems like a solid spot to expect a strong offensive output from both sides. Both McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s units have been in excellent form of late, and it's a tall order for even the best defensive sides to shut those two down when they are going like this.
The Oilers' power play has also been in incredible form, and typically these hotly contested Battle of Alberta matchups have seen a lot of power plays handed out each way.
While the Flames don't have the kind of superstar talents the Oilers have, they have three offensive units capable of getting in on the forecheck effectively and causing problems down low.
They should handily win the bottom-six matchups in this game, and should be capable of getting a solid output of shots towards Ingram as a result.
Backing the over in the Battle of Alberta has always been a trendy bet in recent years, and this specific matchup seems likely to be fairly high-event. At -105 I see value in backing Tuesday's game to feature over 6.5 total goals.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-105, bet365; Play to -115)
