Finding Value in the Western Conference at Midseason

Nearly every team in the NHL has made it to the halfway point of the season. Here’s what’s going down in the Western Conference.

The Central Division has turned into a slugfest with four teams — Winnipeg, St. Louis, Nashville and Dallas — all within six points of one another. Surprisingly, the Chicago Blackhawks, who are 11 points off of division-leader Winnipeg's pace, are in last place.

The Pacific Division is not as tight, as the Vegas Golden Knights have built a seven-point lead over second-place Los Angeles.

At this point in the season we have a pretty good feel for where teams are, and the market is usually pretty well adjusted by now, but that doesn't mean we can't explore some betting angles as we turn down the stretch.

Cinderella in the desert: Vegas Golden Knights
29-10-2, 60 points, first in the Pacific
Opening night odds: +12500
Current odds: +700

The entire hockey world has talked about the Knights ad nauseam, but that's what happens when an expansion team turns itself into a contender overnight.

We already know that there is some substance to Vegas' success and that they are a near-certainty to make the playoffs at this point. They should come down to earth at some point over the next few months, but that won't ruin everything they've built. Rather, they will probably end up hitting a skid here and there and fall of their currently rabid 120-point pace.

One thing that will be very interesting is that at the NHL's Expansion Draft, Vegas set itself up to be a seller at the deadline. James Neal and David Perron are in their walk years and were selected with an eye on fetching a nice haul for Vegas at the deadline. That probably won't be the case anymore, as Vegas just locked up one of their pending free agents, Jonathan "Marty St. Louis" Marchessault, to a contract extension.

You'd have to be crazy to bet the Vegas at their current number, but if you're holding a ticket from before the season — good luck, we're all counting on you.

The other surprising division-leader: Winnipeg Jets
26-11-7, 59 points, first in the Central
Opening night odds: +6600
Current odds: +1200

Last year, the Jets showed signs of a team that could be onto something, with their dynamic offense and their still-developing solid defense. Unfortunately, Winnipeg didn't get the goaltending it needed to make it to the postseason, and a talented hockey team spent April on the golf course.

The Jets addressed their goaltending in the offseason by acquiring the on-again, off-again Steve Mason, but he didn't pan out — mostly because their goalie of the future Connor Hellebuyck was able to put a tough 2016-17 behind him and turn himself into a capable starting goaltender.

After a great start, the Jets were dealt a blow when they lost their best forward, Mark Scheifele, for 6-8 weeks in late December. Even though losing Scheifele is a big deal, the Jets have managed to win five of their first six games without him.

They won't keep rattling off wins at a clip like that without Scheifele, but the Jets have potted enough points that they shouldn't be in a dog fight to make the tournament.

With all of their high-end talent up front, the Jets feel like a team that is built on offense, but in reality it is their defensive play that has turned them into a serious threat out West. Winnipeg ranks third in the league in limiting high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5, and a look at their heat map from HockeyViz drives home that they've got things figured out in their own end.

Just like with the Knights, it's hard to stomach a bet on the Jets now that their number has been slashed so much, but it wouldn't be the worst idea in the world.

The defending conference champions: Nashville Predators
25-11-6, 56 points, second in the Central
Opening night odds: +1400
Current odds: +1400

A storybook season can often lead to a letdown, but that doesn't seem to be the case in Smashville. The Preds still have their teeth and they are probably a better team this year thanks to the acquisition of Kyle Turris. Trading for Turris was another stroke of genius by Preds' general manager and has provided Nashville with one of the strongest spines in the league.

Peter Laviolette's team is not putting up the same impressive numbers at 5-on-5 like they did last year, and they allow more expected goals against than they generate, but they are still a positive Corsi team despite missing one of their best rearguards, Ryan Ellis, for all but three games this season.

Backing a team that is coming off a conference title isn't all that wise, and the Preds' somewhat underwhelming start didn't get to the point where there was really ever any value on taking a punt on them in the futures market. But just because there isn't any value in the number doesn't mean they won't be one of the final teams remaining in the circuit.

Quietly making noise: St. Louis Blues
26-17-3, 55 points, third in the Central
Opening night odds: +2500
Current odds: +1600

The Blues managed to fly a bit under the radar coming into this season after a mediocre 2016-17 season that featured them trading away their star defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk. The Blues' chances took a bigger hit right before the season when they lost top-sixer Robby Fabbri for the season.

But the Blues have managed to be solid at just about every part of the game.

They may not be the most exciting team to watch despite having one of the game's most exciting players in Vladimir Tarasenko, but that doesn't mean they aren't good. Mike Yeo has them playing a well-structured game, and having someone like Tarasenko, who attempts more shots than just about anyone else in the league, means the Blues will have goals in them.

At 5-on-5 the Blues have a 51.17 Corsi For percentage, and they have created 10.55 more expected goals for than they've allowed. In goal, Jake Allen has been solid, and St. Louis is getting terrific results from their backup goalie, Carter Hutton.

St. Louis is built to be a tough out in the playoffs but the Central Division bracket is going to be a gauntlet. It's hard to see them getting the better of Nashville, Dallas or even Winnipeg in a seven-game set.

The post-hype contender: Los Angeles Kings
24-13-5, 53 points, second in the Pacific
Opening night odds: +2500
Current odds: +1800

The Kings were a perennial Cup threat for the better part of the last 10 years, but things came undone in 2016-17, and the organization responded by letting go of their two-time Stanley Cup champion coach Darryl Sutter and the man who constructed the cup winners, Dean Lombardi.

The organizational shake-up has brought encouraging results and breathed new life into the Kings. It's not fair to say that the Kings are completely riding good bounces, but they are due for some regression. They currently boast a sub-50 Corsi (which measures shot differential in even-strength situations) and a 101.68 PDO (a measure of luck). Their 5-on-5 xG (expected goals) differential is -7.33, which looks ugly against their actual goal differential of +15.

It's hard to feel confident backing a team that is outperforming their metrics like Los Angeles is currently. 

Things are coming together nicely: Dallas Stars
24-16-3, 51 points, first wild card spot
Opening night odds: +1400
Current odds: +2000

The Stars were a trendy pick to come out of the West heading into the season, but there was an adjustment period as a team that was built on a high-octane offense had to get used to playing for defense-first head coach Ken Hitchcock.

That feeling out period has seemingly come and gone, as Dallas hit its stride over the festive period and is now making good on their lofty expectations. A quick look at the chart below from Sean Tierney shows that the Stars are driving play when they're at even strength.

Hitchcock's coaching style has turned the Stars into the NHL's best team at suppressing shots. Being able to limit pucks being thrown at your net is always a good thing, and if you couple that with the Stars' ability to create scoring chances, you've got yourself a working formula, my friend.

Taking the Stars at this number isn't a crazy idea.

Once more, with feeling: San Jose Sharks
Opening night odds: +2000
Current odds: +2200
21-13-6, 48 points, third in the Pacific

The Sharks are a model of consistency in the Western Conference, and it looks like San Jose is going to hang around for at least one more season.

The Sharks are once again a solid possession team, and they are underperforming their expected goals, so if that corrects they could challenge Los Angeles for the second spot. But there's nothing to suggest that the Sharks will be able to run through the slog of an NHL postseason.

San Jose is quietly in a playoff spot, just like they always are, but there's no reason to get involved.

Weathered the storm: Anaheim Ducks
Opening night odds: +1400
Current odds: +2800
19-15-9, 47 points, fifth in the Pacific

Coming into the year, the Ducks were among the favorites to win the West, but that seemed off given that they were going to be without key players like Hampus Lindholm and Ryan Kesler in the early going. Things only got worse for the Ducks in the injury department, as they lost basically their entire top six and their top defensemen at some point or another in the first half.

Somehow, Anaheim clawed through a challenging first 40 games and stayed afloat in the Pacific Division. And now that they are operating near 100%, the Ducks could be poised to go on a run.

Earlier in the year, we suggested Anaheim had some value due to their injury-riddled start.

Also-rans: Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild, Calgary Flames, Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks, Arizona Coyotes

Special thanks to @ChartingHockey, HockeyViz, Corsica and Natural Stat Trick for the data and visuals. 

Photo:  Jerome Miron, USA Today

All odds current as of Jan. 10 at Bodog.

All stats current as of Jan. 10.