Top NHL Prop Bets for Monday: Pavelski Over/Under 2.5 Total Shots on Goal?
Here are three props I’m eyeing for games at 7:30 and 10:30 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.
Devils W Patrick Maroon under 2.5 shots on goal (+120)
7:30 p.m. ET
The Lightning have been playing lock-down defense over the past month (21st percentile in shot attempts allowed), so attacking yet another under from a low-volume Devils shooter might be sharp. Of all New Jersey skaters, Maroon has the under that stands out the most, as he’s averaged only 1.3 shots per game over the past month (38th percentile) and 1.91 over the past year (53rd). In the 19 games (including playoffs) since he was dealt to the Devils at the deadline, Maroon has registered three or more shots only four times. He’s notably done so in back-to-back games, but Maroon could easily regress back to his long-term mean sooner rather than later, as the Devils own the slate’s lowest Expected Corsi For.
Lightning G Andrei Vasilevskiy under 29.5 total saves (-115)
7:30 p.m. ET
Of today’s goalie props, Vasilevskiy under 29.5 is the clear lean. Tampa Bay has the lowest Corsi Allowed on the slate over the past month (40.86), and only Anaheim (42.29) has a lower Corsi For than New Jersey (43.33) over that same time period. The data doesn’t look favorable from the first two games of this series (41 and 29 saves for Vasilevskiy), but regression for New Jersey’s shot volume seems likely.
Sharks C Joe Pavelski over 2.5 shots on goal (-150)
10:30 p.m. ET
The San Jose system is built around creating as many shots as possible, and the player props for Brent Burns and Evander Kane are reasonably aggressive today (shot attempts, over/under 4.0) given their recent production in the 97th and 99th percentile in shots over the past month. A tier below them in the 91st percentile of shots (2.75 per game), Pavelski has a much friendlier prop in this above-average matchup against the Ducks (79th percentile in shot attempts allowed). Over the past month, Pavelski has averaged 0.5 more shots at home (3.0 per game) than on the road, something to consider as this series shifts to San Jose.
Pictured above: Joe Pavelski