Alex Ovechkin. Photo credit: James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports
The only NHL game on Monday is Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but there should still be plenty of opportunities to look for exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are two props I’m eyeing for the Lightning-Capitals game, which starts at 8 p.m. ET.
Capitals W Alex Ovechkin over 4.5 shots on goal (-115)
8 p.m. ET
I considered writing this blurb before I even checked the line because it seems wise to bet on a high-volume shooter to do what he does best in an elimination game. In this series, Ovechkin has four or fewer shots in four of five games, but he has averaged an absurd 4.23 shots per game over the past year. He leads the playoffs with 6.0 Corsi For per game, and he trails only John Carlson (3.92) tonight with his 3.77 shots per game over the past month. Ovechkin has never reached the Stanley Cup Final, and coming back to win this series could be huge for his legacy. It would be shocking if he went down without double-digit shot attempts tonight.
Lightning G Andrei Vasilevskiy over 29.5 total saves (-115)
8 p.m. ET
Vasilevskiy is a huge reason the Lightning find themselves one win away from the Final. They’ve been outplayed most of the series, but Vasilevskiy has been a difference-making presence. The Capitals have averaged 33.6 shots per game in the series, and Vasilevskiy has responded with a .905 save percentage in route to 30.4 saves per game. Ovechkin and company will likely continue to shoot tonight. Vasilevskiy owns a 28.85 Save Prediction in our Models, but with 31 or more saves in three of the past four games he could easily exceed our projection, especially given Washington’s desperation to extend the series.