Should Bettors Follow the Money in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final?

Should Bettors Follow the Money in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final? article feature image
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Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Capitals right wing Devante Smith-Pelly

Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final is tonight at 8 p.m. ET at Capital One Arena. The Washington Capitals have a 2-1 series lead after beating the Vegas Golden Knights in consecutive games, the first team to do so this postseason.

 

The Knights will look to even the series, but it won’t be easy. The oddsmakers opened the Caps as -125 favorites (bet $125 to win 100) and the line has moved to Washington -130. At the time of publication, nearly 60% of moneyline dollars are on the home team.

Should bettors follow the money in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final?

Using Bet Labs, we find that home teams following a playoff victory have been overvalued. Since 2006, teams in this situation are 239-221 (52%) straight-up. These clubs are usually favored and do not win enough to make wagering on them profitable as a $100 bettor would be down $4,877 (-10.6% ROI).

It has been even more costly to bet these teams if the line moves in their direction (become smaller underdogs or bigger favorites) like it has with the Capitals. In this scenario teams are 84-90 (48%) straight-up, costing a $100 bettor $3,388 (-19.5% ROI).

Contrarian bettors should fade Washington tonight. No bet signals (sharp money indicators) have been triggered on the Caps, meaning the majority of moneyline dollars wagered is from the public.

Since 2006, savvy bettors who wagered against teams in this situation have gone 90-84 straight-up, returning a profit of $4,329 (+24.9% ROI) for a $100 bettor.

Let’s go, Vegas!