Flames vs. Canucks NHL Odds & Pick: Back Calgary at Familiar Price (Thursday, Feb. 11)
Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob Markstrom.
- If it feels like the Calgary Flames are -130 favorites every night it's because, well, they kind of are.
- They'll be favored at this price once again when they take on the Vancouver Canucks on Thursday night.
- Matt Russell breaks down this matchup and shares his betting pick below.
Flames vs. Canucks Odds
|Time||Thursday, 10 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Wednesday night and via PointsBet.|
Lather, rinse, repeat. Not just the instructions on the back of your 2-in-1 shampoo and conditioner anymore.
Apparently that’s the case when it comes to the Calgary Flames, as well. If it seems like the #CofRed are a -130 favorite every night, it’s because they kind of are. Both on the road and at home, the Flames have been at or around a -130 fave in five straight games. They’re 3-2 in these games, so maybe they’re priced correctly in the market, as that’s good for less than a half-unit profit if you bet on their moneyline in each game.
We get to add more data points for this pricing situation as the Flames head to Vancouver for the first of four straight with the Canucks. The first three of which will be on the edge of False Creek, and therefore similarly priced to where it opened on Wednesday.
Yep, you guessed it. -130.
The Flames took some semblance of revenge against the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday night, with a dominant even-strength effort where they racked up 12 High-Danger Chances (HDCs) to just one for the Jets. Of course, because hockey is hockey, it took a late power-play goal to get the win.
They’ll take the win though, after playing similarly well against the Jets in Winnipeg only to lose two of three, despite putting up a cumulative Expected Goals For of 6.85 to the Jets’ 3.99.
The story of the Flames’ season has been one incredibly close game after another, no matter how much they outplay the opposition 5-on-5, and in a few cases, how much they’ve been outplayed. This shouldn’t be all that surprising given the consistently tight moneyline prices in their games, but the fact that they’re more frequently the better team on even-strength gives credence to my “Let’s Do That Hockey” model (as heard on THE WINDOW: Sports Betting Podcast) having the Flames at 9% above average.
The Flames met the Canucks back in Calgary at the start of the season, taking both games at the Saddledome, and it’s been almost all downhill for the Canucks since then.
Yes, I’m aware that those games were the third and fourth games of the year for Vancouver, but that’s what kind of season it’s been for them. With the exception of three wins over the cellar-dwelling Ottawa Senators, the Canucks haven’t had more than 50% of the Expected Goals in a game until their most recent game, a loss to Toronto on Monday.
The disappointment in the Canucks this season is strictly a defensive issue. Their Expected Goal game log is big number after big number, as they average over 2.08 xGA. By comparison, the Senators average 1.94 xGA, and they’ve won two games all season.
After going 0-for-5 with zero points toward the standings in their games back east, the Canucks can take solace in the fact that those games against Montreal and Toronto were against two of the three top teams in the division by my ratings.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Where the solace is fleeting for Vancouver is knowing they now have to deal with the other of the top-three teams in the division for four straight games. There is no rest for the weary.
While we’ll be looking to potentially back Vancouver whenever the Flames give backup goalie David Rittich a turn in the crease, that won’t likely be the case on Thursday. With former Canuck Jacob Markstrom in goal for Calgary, -130 is fair value here and I’ve hopped on this number with the Flames. Again.
Pick: Flames (-140 or better)