Oilers at Blues Betting Odds and Pick: Will Edmonton’s Struggles Continue in St. Louis?

Oilers at Blues Betting Odds and Pick: Will Edmonton’s Struggles Continue in St. Louis? article feature image

Perry Nelson, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisatl

Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues Odds

  • Oilers odds: +150
  • Blues odds: -180
  • Over/Under: 5.5
  • Time: 8:30 p.m. ET

Odds current as of Wednesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.

After a hot start, the Edmonton Oilers have started to show some real cracks over the past fortnight.

At some point, Edmonton’s strategy of hanging on for dear life until Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisatl would do something magnificent was going to catch up with them. Star power is important in today’s NHL, but relying on two players and your power play to bail you out won’t work every night.

Over its past 10 games, Edmonton has a 41% expected goals share and has been outscored, 28-12, at 5-on-5.

The Oilers are only average at creating scoring chances, but with McDavid and Draisatl going the way they are, they don’t need to generate a ton of chances to see results. The depth at forward isn’t great, but Edmonton’s biggest flaw is on defense and in goal. The Oilers allow 2.77 goals (27th) and 2.37 expected goals against (24th) per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.

The good news is that the Blues’ offense is not all that prolific, especially without Vladimir Tarasenko. St. Louis averages 2.04 expected goals and 8.7 high-danger chances for per 60 minutes this season . The Blues have improved their 5-on-5 play over the past 10 games, but the defending champs are clearly still a defense-first team getting great goaltending from Jordan Binnington.

blues vs oilers odds-betting picks-preview-12-17-2019
Heatmap via HockeyViz.com

Over the long run, the Oilers will be found out, but in a single-game scenario I’m not opposed to backing them in the right spot. Earlier in the week, my colleague Sean Zerillo and I concurred that Edmonton was trending down and is a good fade target, but everything comes down to price in betting and this price is high enough to have a stab on the struggling Oilers.

The Blues have an outstanding record and currently sit in first place in the Central Division, but their record flatters them a bit and they look due for a little bit of regression at some point.

Given that they are the current Cup holders and are leading the Western Conference, the Blues will naturally be overpriced in the market. That seems to be the case tonight as the listed odds suggest the Blues win this game 61.4% of the time. I’m backing the Oilers and would do so down to +145.

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