NHL Betting: Should You Back the Blackhawks In Jeremy Colliton’s Debut?

NHL Betting: Should You Back the Blackhawks In Jeremy Colliton’s Debut? article feature image

Patrick Gorski, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Brent Seabrook

Betting odds: Carolina Hurricanes at Chicago Blackhawks

  • Hurricanes moneyline: -105
  • Blackhawks moneyline: -115
  • Over/Under: 6 (+105/-125)
  • Puck drop: 8:30 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of 11 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets

This is a weird one. This will be Chicago’s first game since Joel Quenneville was fired. The Blackhawks won three Stanley Cups under Coach Q in six seasons, from 2009-15. They had won three Cups in their previous 82 seasons before that, so he’s kind of a big deal.

New head coach Jeremy Colliton — a 33-year-old former New York Islander — will cut his teeth against the Carolina Hurricanes at the United Center on Thursday night.

It is always really hard to bet against Carolina, but the Hurricanes really don’t make it easy to bet on them, either. Their peripheral numbers are elite. Their actual record is far from it.

The ‘Canes lead the NHL with a 60.3 Corsi For (CF%) and generate more high-danger scoring chances (15.9) per 60 minutes at 5v5 than any other team in the NHL.

Things check out defensively, too. The Hurricanes allow the second-fewest shot attempts per 60 minutes and fifth-fewest expected goals per 60 in the NHL.

Despite their strong advanced numbers, Carolina boasts a pedestrian 6-7-2 record and has gone 2-7-1 in their last 10 games. What gives?

The problem is that Carolina is shooting a meager 5.81% at 5v5. That is the second-lowest mark in the NHL. Blend that with mediocre goaltending and you get an idea why the Hurricanes aren’t seeing tangible results lately.

What does all this mean for their Thursday date with the Blackhawks?

Chicago has a clear edge in goal (if Corey Crawford and not former Hurricane Cam Ward plays), but that’s about it. The Blackhawks give up the third-most high-danger chances per 60 in the NHL, and that weakness should be exploited by the relentless Hurricanes.

You could argue that it’s risky betting against a coach making his new debut — I believe they call it the “new manager bounce” overseas — but the numbers all point to the Hurricanes, and I’d suggest they have value up to -115.

The Bet: Carolina Hurricanes -105

Betting odds: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Islanders moneyline: +180
  • Lightning moneyline: -215
  • Over/Under: 6 (-120/+100)
  • Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET

The New York Islanders are 8-4-2 and lead the Eastern Conference with a +10 5v5 goal differential. It’s still early, but the Isles are surprising people with their place in the table.

In not-so-surprising fashion, the Lightning lead the NHL with 23 points and are who we thought they were.

The Bolts are a top-5 team in just about every category. They control 54.8% of the shot share and 57.5% of the high-danger scoring chances.

The Islanders are a different story. They have the third-worst CF%, generate the fewest shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5v5 and give up two more high-danger chances than they produce per 60 minutes.

What the Islanders do well is make life easy on their goaltenders. The Isles lead the NHL in expected save percentage on unblocked shots at 5v5. Barry Trotz’s teams always do a good job in their own zone and that’s what is going on here.

None of this screams: “Bet the Islanders!” But the long-and-short of it is that these odds are a little off.

While Tampa Bay is the better team by a long way in this one, the number is just too high. At -215 the Lightning have an implied probability of 68.3% while the Isles, at +180, have a 35.7% chance of winning.

You lose this bet more often than you win it, but I see value on the Islanders at anything above +170 (37%).

Bet: New York Islanders +180

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