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Islanders vs. Flyers Odds & Pick: Philly’s Best Still Won’t Be Enough In Tuesday’s Game 5

Islanders vs. Flyers Odds & Pick: Philly’s Best Still Won’t Be Enough In Tuesday’s Game 5 article feature image

Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Game 5: Islanders vs. Flyers Odds

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Islanders Odds -114 [BET NOW]
Flyers Odds -103 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 5 (-117/-105) [BET NOW]
Time 7 p.m. ET

Odds as of Tuesday at 1:00 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The Philadelphia Flyers played their best game in weeks on Sunday night and still lost 3-2 to the New York Islanders. Philadelphia out-attempted the Islanders, 63-to-38, won the expected goals battle, 2.4-to-1.62, and generated three more high-danger chances than New York did at 5-on-5.

After the game, Islanders head coach Barry Trotz said it was his team’s worst performance in The Bubble. The Isles weren’t terrible, but they were second-best for large portions of the contest and were bailed out by goaltender Thomas Greiss.

The Flyers could reasonably argue that they deserved to win Game 4. Hockey is a cruel game.

Flyers Islanders
Game 1 -115 +100
Game 2 -113 -103
Game 3 -105 -110
Game 4 +104 -121
Game 5 -103 -114

Odds via DraftKings

It is a bit surprising that the market has moved towards Philadelphia ahead of Game 5. The Flyers did put together a strong effort in Game 4, but they still lost their second game in a row. The Islanders have controlled play for most of this series, and they have been one of the most impressive teams in the playoffs.

These two teams are basically equals on paper, so the odds were never going to get out of hand; but, I did expect that the Islanders would see some early movement considering their recent form.

New York is 10-3 in the postseason, and everything under the hood checks out. The Islanders have a +12 goal differential at 5-on-5 and boast a +0.65 expected goal differential per hour during their 13-game run.

5-on-5 Stat Islanders Flyers
Goals 10 6
Expected Goals 9.57 8.15
Shot Attempts 202 230
High-danger scoring chances 50 38

Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.

Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.

xG numbers cited from Evolving Hockey.

There were some encouraging signs from the Flyers in Game 4, but I would need a bigger number than this to play Philadelphia’s side against the Islanders. It’s hard not to be impressed with New York’s overall body of work since the playoffs started. Moreover, it’s difficult to ignore that Game 4 was the first strong game from the Flyers in some time.

The price on the Islanders has ticked up since Game 1 of this series, but I don’t mind paying up since these odds are still palatable. It isn’t every day that you can get a team that has won 10 out of 13 games in the postseason at -114 odds.

I think the Isles are playable at -120 or better.

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