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NHL Odds and Picks (Tuesday, Aug. 4): Jets vs. Flames Game 3

NHL Odds and Picks (Tuesday, Aug. 4): Jets vs. Flames Game 3 article feature image

Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Connor, Cam Talbot

  • Betting odds for Tuesday's Winnipeg Jets vs. Calgary Flames Game 3 have the Flames listed at -160 and the Jets at +135.
  • Both games thus far have finished with five goals, (4-1, Flames and 3-2, Jets) and tonight's total has been set at 5.5.
  • Below you'll find Michael Leboff's full betting preview for the game, including a pick on the moneyline.

Winnipeg Jets vs. Calgary Flames Odds

Jets Odds +135 [BET NOW]
Flames Odds -160 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 5.5 (+115/-135) [BET NOW]
Time 6:45 p.m. ET
TV NHL Network

Odds as of Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. ET and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

(Below originally published with yesterday’s odds: -145/+125)

The Winnipeg Jets were on my fade list all season long and I was more than happy to keep them there for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Jets were one of the worst teams at 5-on-5 during the regular season, posting a league-worst 43.1% expected goals rate, and if it wasn’t for the nightly heroics of goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg would have been a cellar dweller in 2019/20.

Betting on hockey will humble you and I must admit, the Jets may be in the midst of proving me wrong during these dystopian playoffs.

Not only did the Jets knot up their best-of-5 series with the Flames with a win on Monday afternoon, but they did it in a very un-Winnipeg like way. The Jets created more expected goals, shot attempts and high-danger scoring chances than the Flames in their 3-2 win.

It was the second game in a row that the Jets posted better 5-on-5 numbers than the Flames, which is not something I was prepared for. Two games is such a small sample size, but the Jets are hanging tough and they’re doing it without two of their best players.

5-on-5 Stat Winnipeg Jets Calgary Flames
Goals For 3 2
Goals Against 2.61 2.39
Expected Goals For 66 62

Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.

Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.

xG numbers cited from Evolving Hockey.

Do I think that Winnipeg has suddenly figured it out? Absolutely not. But you can’t deny that the Jets have looked like an improved bunch through the first two games of this five-game set.

That improvement may not stick, but even if the Jets can keep things respectable at even strength, they are dangerous in this series. Winnipeg’s got a huge advantage in goal with Connor Hellebuyck, so any step they can take at evening things up in other areas of the game is a big deal in a tight matchup.

The odds for this series have ping-ponged a bit, though that’s partly due to the fact that the Jets lost two of their best players in the middle of Game 1. Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine didn’t play in Game 2 and the Jets were coming off a 4-1 defeat, so it wasn’t surprising to see their price shoot up ahead of Monday’s win.

Winnipeg Jets Calgary Flames
Game 1 +105 -125
Game 2 +135 -160
Game 3 +125 -145

Even though the Jets are hanging around the +125 range at most sportsbooks on Monday night, I expect their odds to tick up closer to where they were ahead of Game 2.

I’ll be patient and hope this price gets north of +130, but if it doesn’t I’ll stake a chance on Winnipeg at +125.

[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, CO, IN and WV only.]

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