Locky’s First Period NHL Model, 3/14: No Team Is an Island

Credit:

Brad Penner, USA Today Sports.

Mar 14, 2019, 11:51 AM EDT

Good morning!

Yesterday was not particularly busy in this market. We had one pretty good edge, on the Devils over, which won. The Blackhawks, who were more than -200, went over yet again, because that’s kind of what they were supposed to do.

Today there are 10 games, a busy Thursday night, but only a couple edges really stand out, and one in particular.

A Reminder

If you’re new here, I built a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.

NHL 1st Period Model Tutorial and FAQ: What Does Any of This Mean?Read now

Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders, 7 p.m. ET

The Islanders are a frequent “over” edge according to the model for a very understandable reason: They play games with low full-game projections but they score a lot of goals in the first period.

It’s really kind of the perfect combination, assuming the period totals are just derivatives of the full-game total. The Isles score 33.1% of all their goals in the first (league average 29-ish%) and allow about 30% of their goals in the first.

Their opponent, Montreal, is also prone to playing higher-than-average scoring firsts. It’s a combination that will hopefully yield goals!