Download the App Image

NHL Odds, Picks and Predictions: Vancouver Canucks vs. Minnesota Wild (Friday, August 7)

NHL Odds, Picks and Predictions: Vancouver Canucks vs. Minnesota Wild (Friday, August 7) article feature image

Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Parise.

  • The Canucks and Wild (-120) square off in Game 4 in Minnesota.
  • The Wild rely heavily on their defense to try and derail the favored Canucks.
  • See our full expert betting analysis below.

Canucks vs. Wild Game 4 Betting Odds:

Canucks Odds +100 [BET NOW]
Wild Odds -120 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 5.5 (+115/-135) [BET NOW]
Time Friday, 10:45 p.m. ET

Odds via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

After winning Game 1 thanks to a hot power play and a shutout by Alex Stalock, the Minnesota Wild have stalled and now find themselves down to their last out in their best-of-5 series with the Canucks.

The Wild have been the slightly better team at 5-on-5 throughout the series except in the one area that counts: Goals. Despite creating 4.37 expected goals and 24 high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5, Minnesota has yet to beat Jacob Markstrom at even strength.

Minnesota isn’t an offensive powerhouse by any stretch, but it did achieve 2.82 goals per hour at 5-on-5 during the regular season thanks the second-highest shooting percentage in the league.

Minnesota Wild Vancouver Canucks
5-on-5 Goals For 0 4
5-on-5 Expected Goals For 4.37 3.36
5-on-5 Shot Attempts 117 102
5-on-5 High-Danger Scoring Chances 24 18

Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.

Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.

xG numbers cited from Evolving Hockey.

Vancouver has plenty of high-quality finishers and a great goaltender — Jacob Markstrom has been sensational — so the Canucks will naturally make good on a better percentage of their scoring chances than Minnesota will. Therefore, it is imperative that the Wild separate themselves at 5-on-5.

Vancouver can survive getting bullied at 5-on-5; Minnesota likely won’t unless they start doing some bullying.

Minnesota Wild Vancouver Canucks
Game 1 -110 -110
Game 2 -115 +100
Game 3 -129 +112
Game 4 -121 +105

Odds via DraftKings

The Canucks opened as favorites to win this series but by the time the puck dropped it was virtually a pick ’em. That kind of market movement has been a trend for each game as the line has moved towards the Wild before each contest. I wouldn’t be surprised if that trend reverses for Game 4 with the Canucks coming off a two-game winning streak.

However, the line will almost certainly move towards Vancouver if the Wild are without Ryan Suter, who left Game 3 with just about seven minutes to go.

Perhaps I am too high on Minnesota and have been all season, but I can’t quit a team that posts the kind of defensive metrics that Minnesota does.

Even with Markstrom playing well and the Canucks hanging with Minnesota at 5-on-5, I am closer to a bet on the Wild again for Game 4 — assuming Suter plays. If Suter is unable to play, I’d look for +105 or better on the Wild.

The other bet I am considering is a play on Minnesota to win the series at +250 (bet365).

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

How would you rate this article?