NHL Odds, Picks and Predictions: Vancouver Canucks vs. Minnesota Wild (Friday, August 7)
Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Parise.
- The Canucks and Wild (-120) square off in Game 4 in Minnesota.
- The Wild rely heavily on their defense to try and derail the favored Canucks.
- See our full expert betting analysis below.
Canucks vs. Wild Game 4 Betting Odds:
| Canucks Odds | +100 [BET NOW] |
| Wild Odds | -120 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 5.5 (+115/-135) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Friday, 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
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After winning Game 1 thanks to a hot power play and a shutout by Alex Stalock, the Minnesota Wild have stalled and now find themselves down to their last out in their best-of-5 series with the Canucks.
The Wild have been the slightly better team at 5-on-5 throughout the series except in the one area that counts: Goals. Despite creating 4.37 expected goals and 24 high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5, Minnesota has yet to beat Jacob Markstrom at even strength.
Minnesota isn't an offensive powerhouse by any stretch, but it did achieve 2.82 goals per hour at 5-on-5 during the regular season thanks the second-highest shooting percentage in the league.
| Minnesota Wild | Vancouver Canucks | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-on-5 Goals For | 0 | 4 |
| 5-on-5 Expected Goals For | 4.37 | 3.36 |
| 5-on-5 Shot Attempts | 117 | 102 |
| 5-on-5 High-Danger Scoring Chances | 24 | 18 |
Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.
Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.
xG numbers cited from Evolving Hockey.
Vancouver has plenty of high-quality finishers and a great goaltender — Jacob Markstrom has been sensational — so the Canucks will naturally make good on a better percentage of their scoring chances than Minnesota will. Therefore, it is imperative that the Wild separate themselves at 5-on-5.
Vancouver can survive getting bullied at 5-on-5; Minnesota likely won't unless they start doing some bullying.
| Minnesota Wild | Vancouver Canucks | |
|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | -110 | -110 |
| Game 2 | -115 | +100 |
| Game 3 | -129 | +112 |
| Game 4 | -121 | +105 |
Odds via DraftKings
The Canucks opened as favorites to win this series but by the time the puck dropped it was virtually a pick 'em. That kind of market movement has been a trend for each game as the line has moved towards the Wild before each contest. I wouldn't be surprised if that trend reverses for Game 4 with the Canucks coming off a two-game winning streak.
However, the line will almost certainly move towards Vancouver if the Wild are without Ryan Suter, who left Game 3 with just about seven minutes to go.
Perhaps I am too high on Minnesota and have been all season, but I can't quit a team that posts the kind of defensive metrics that Minnesota does.
Even with Markstrom playing well and the Canucks hanging with Minnesota at 5-on-5, I am closer to a bet on the Wild again for Game 4 — assuming Suter plays. If Suter is unable to play, I'd look for +105 or better on the Wild.
The other bet I am considering is a play on Minnesota to win the series at +250 (bet365).
[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
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