Tuesday NHL Odds, Betting Picks and Predictions: Islanders vs. Panthers Game 2 Preview (Aug. 4)
Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Mackenzie Weegar
- The Islanders are a short betting favorite over the Panthers in Game 2 of their qualifying round series, with the total at 5.
- Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky looked great in Game 1, but its dynamic offense couldn't find much of anything against the stingy Isles.
- Get Michael Leboff's full breakdown for this game below.
Florida Panthers vs. New York Islanders Odds
|Panthers Odds||+105 [BET NOW]|
|Islanders Odds||-121 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||5.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||Tuesday, 12 p.m. ET|
When the New York Islanders are at their best they look exactly like they did in Game 1. The Isles kept Florida to the outside, played it safe in their own zone and didn’t make too many mistakes. To an outsider, the Islanders are boring. But that’s a feature of the system, not a bug.
Perhaps more importantly, the Islanders were able to earn a win in Game 1 despite a solid performance from Sergei Bobrovsky. The Panthers’ flawed defensive game puts a lot of pressure on Bob and he was able to keep Florida in the game with a few big saves.
Unfortunately, Florida’s offense lost its strength-vs-strength battle with New York’s defense. The Panthers were only able to muster 0.95 expected goals at 5-on-5.
That doesn’t mean this series is over by any stretch. Florida still has a path to success, especially if Bobrovsky carries over his form from Game 1. The Islanders are an offensively-challenged team, so if the Panthers begin creating chances this matchup could get flipped on its head pretty quickly.
In fact, despite New York’s well-earned victory on Saturday the market views Game 2 as a virtual coin flip with the Islanders at -121 (52.9% implied probability). Oftentimes oddsmakers and bettors overreact to Game 1 and that hasn’t seemed to happen here for one reason or another.
Part of the less-than-dramatic shift could have to do with the fact that the Islanders have been a tough team for models to figure out in Barry Trotz’s two seasons. The Isles don’t blow anybody away, especially offensively, but their commitment to structure makes them really hard to beat and that is not something that models can quantify.
I thought the prices in Game 1 were pretty fair for this matchup. The Islanders closed between -115 and -127 and I’d expect them to be in that range again for Game 2.
Like I said before Game 1, the Panthers are not all that appealing to me at these odds. Florida’s got enough starpower up top and potentially in goal to give the Panthers a high ceiling, but if I’m going to take a risk with a bet on a team like this in a tournament setup, I want to be rewarded.
I don’t think the Islanders will have that much value for this game but if you’re going to be watching this game and are looking for action, I’d back the Islanders at the current odds, but would try to find something closer to -120 than -130.