Top NHL Prop Bets for Thursday: Martin Jones Over/Under 25.5 Saves?

Top NHL Prop Bets for Thursday: Martin Jones Over/Under 25.5 Saves? article feature image

Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Martin Jones

  • There are four NHL player prop bets that stand out for Thursday night's slate, including Sharks goaltender Martin Jones over/under 25.5 saves.
  • See Joe Holka's picks for that and the three others featuring Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon, Coyotes right winger Clayton Keller and Sabres goaltender Carter Hutton.

We have a nice nine-game main slate on Thursday, so we have plenty of opportunities to look for exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool at Fantasy Labs, as well as the Bet Labs database.

Here are four props I’m eyeing for Thursday night, with the first puck drop at 7 p.m. ET.

Avalanche C Nathan MacKinnon

The pick: Under 4.5 shots on goal (-120)

I’m almost always long on a high-volume shooter such as MacKinnon, who ranks in the 99th-percentile in shots per game over the past year, month and 15 days.

That said, the under looks like a solid value for a guy in a horrific matchup on the road. Through its first four games, New Jersey has allowed the fourth-fewest shots per game to start the season (25.8).

Our proprietary shot prediction metric has MacKinnon pegged for only 3.7 shots on goal on Thursday, below his 4.83 average over the past month.

Coyotes RW Clayton Keller

The pick: Over 2.5 shots on goal (-110)

NHL player props tend to skew toward long-term averages and less toward recent production and matchups.

Keller is a fantastic example of the latter at only -110, averaging 2.51 shots per game over the past year, but in a fantastic volume-based matchup against a Blackhawks team that’s allowing the seventh-most shots per game (34.6).

As we talked about on Thursday’s Inside the Lab, the Coyotes’ system is all about generating shots at the moment, and they own our top Corsi for expectation on the entire slate.

Keller himself is projected to leap his long-term average on Thursday night with a solid 3.0 shot prediction in our Models.

Sharks G Martin Jones

The pick: Under 25.5 saves (-120)

This one is pretty simple: Buffalo has the third-fewest shots for (26.5 per game) and San Jose has the sixth-fewest shots against (27.0) to start the season.

Our proprietary save-prediction metric has Allen projected for (by far) the fewest saves on Thursday’s slate (22.43), which makes sense considering that the Sabres own the lowest Corsi for expectation by an equally large margin.

Sabres G Carter Hutton

The pick: Over 29.5 saves (-120)

This prop for Hutton looks potentially even more egregious.

San Jose has the second-most shots for (38.5 per game) and Buffalo has the eighth-most shots against (33.7) to start the season. Hutton has our highest save prediction on the slate (36.71), and the Sharks have the second-highest Corsi for expectation.

Another data point in favor of the over is Buffalo has surprisingly allowed only 2.83 goals per game this season, which is an above-average defensive mark, despite allowing a ton of shots. This sets up well for saves because San Jose is (also surprisingly) below-average in goals for (2.83) over that same span on a high amount of shot volume.

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