Stanley Cup Projections: Does Bruins or Blues Series Price Have Any Value?

Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final is Monday (8 p.m. ET, NBC) between the Boston Bruins and St. Louis Blues.

These were two of the best teams in the NHL down the stretch, ranking in the top five in Points Percentage, Goals For Percentage, Shot Share, Expected Goals Against per 60 and High-Danger Chances Against per 60 since New Year’s Day.

Oddsmakers list the Bruins as -155 favorites. With two evenly matchup clubs is there value betting the Blues +135 to win? It depends on which model you want to believe.

According to Money Puck, the Final is a coin toss as the Bruins have a 52.1% chance to become champions. At -155 odds, the implied probability suggests the B’s have a 60.8% chance to hoist the Cup, which means there is value backing St. Louis.

But Dom Luszczyszyn, an analyst for The Athletic, ran 50,000 simulations of this matchup and his model sees it as Boston’s Cup to lose. Luszczyszyn projects the Bruins to win it all 73.0% of the time. If you trust this projection, the sportsbooks are offering favorable odds on Boston.

Two models, two different bets. Not all that helpful.

We need more information to make an informed wager. So, I’ve created a consensus projection to win the Stanley Cup based on predictions from Money Puck, The Athletic, Washington Post, NumberFire and NHL.com.

Based on the consensus projection, the Bruins have a 61.1% chance of winning the championship. The Blues have a 38.9% chance of pulling the upset.

There is not a big edge either way, but at -155 odds, bettors are getting a fair price to wager on Boston. While playoff hockey is notoriously difficult to predict, favorites have succeeded lately. Since 2001, the pre-series betting favorite has won 13 of the past 17 Stanley Cups according to SportsOddsHistory.com.

As a Blues fan, I hope St. Louis finds a win to end the longest Stanley Cup championship drought among active NHL teams, but the numbers say the Bruins capture another title for the city of Boston.