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Top NHL Prop Bets for Monday: Carlson Over/Under 2.5 Total Shots on Goal?

Tonight is Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final, so we have the opportunity to look for exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.

Here are two props I’m eyeing for the Golden Knights-Capitals game, which starts at 8 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.

 

Golden Knights W Alex Tuch over 2.0 shots on goal (+110)

I could easily write up Jonathan Marchessault over 3.5 shots for a third straight game (-150), but there might be more value tonight in attacking Tuch over 2.0 (+110). He has registered three or more shots in four of the past five games, and the Capitals are a plus matchup for opposing shot volume (81st percentile in shot attempts over the past month). With the Golden Knights looking to earn the road split in Washington tonight, Tuch should be heavily involved.

Capitals D John Carlson over 2.5 shots on goal (-150)

In the series, Marchessault (24) is the only player with more individual Corsi For than Carlson (16), and half of his shot attempts have come on the power play. No player — not even Alex Ovechkin — has more power-play shot attempts than Carlson (eight), and Vegas has little reason to change its defensive scheme after allowing just one power-play goal (on seven opportunities) in the first three games of the series. The Golden Knights seem content taking away Ovechkin’s one-timer, and in doing so they open up shots for Carlson at the top of the umbrella. In his last game alone he had six shots on goal.

Credit:

Gary A. Vasquez-USA Today Sports. Pictured: John Carlson

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