Aston Villa vs Wolves Odds, Pick: Premier League Offenses to Suffer in This Match

Aston Villa look to continue their good form under new manager Unai Emery when they host Wolves.

They notched another win versus a big six club last time out, taking down Tottenham 2-0 at White Hart Lane. Unai Emery has shown himself to be an incredible manager at building up mid-table clubs into top six contenders.

After three win in his first four Premier League game at the helm for Villa, Emery has them headed towards a top half of the table finish.

Wolves dropped all three points at home this past weekend to Manchester United, which keeps them in the relegation zone. Julian Lopataguei has his work cut out for him trying to turn the ship in the right direction and it doesn't get any easier facing an in form Aston Villa team on the road.

Aston Villa Finding Form in Key Stretch

Aston Villa are a top eight defense in terms of xG, and that is only going to improve under Emery. Their style of play hasn't changed a ton because Emery would typically would set his Villarreal in a 4-4-2, but throughout the match he would morph it into a 4-3-3 or 4-1-4-1.

He puts a big emphasis on staying compact in between the lines, which is why it's so difficult to create high quality chances against them. They held Tottenham to just 0.66 xG and just six shots on the road on Sunday, so it's unlikely Wolves will find much success.

However, Aston Villa have been running hot offensively under Emery. In his four Premier League matches in charge they have scored seven goals off of 3.5 xG. Even the last match against Tottenham, they created a big scoring chance when the game was stretched, but scored two goals off of 1.0 xG. So, this may be a match where you will see some of that negative regression come into play.

Additionally, Aston Villa have the highest average shot distance in the Premier League at 18.6 yards from the goal, which is not a good sign of staying hot offensively. They also have only created one big scoring chance in Emery's four matches in charge. 

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Wolves Struggling to Create Any Offense

I don’t really care if Wolves are due for offensive regression, they are still averaging 0.87 npxG per 90 minutes and have created just three big scoring chances in their last 11 matches.

Against Manchester United they didn’t take a shot from inside 13 yards until stoppage time. Wolves still lead the Premier League with 41% of their shots coming from outside the box and they have the third-longest average shot distance at 18.5 yards. They have also created over 1 xG once in their last five matches. 

Wolves have been a solid defensive team, as they're top 10 in both non-penalty expected goals allowed and big scoring chances allowed. They are also likely going to be the ones holding a majority of the possession in this match. Emery's side has conceded over 50% possession in the last four matches.

Wolves are pretty split on their style of play, as they have 29 build up attacks compared to 30 direct attacks, showing their tactical versatility to play a couple of different styles. Tactical versatility is a great thing, but when you can't create any high quality chances, it doesn't mean a darn thing.

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Aston Villa vs. Wolves Pick

Aston Villa do such a good job defending around their penalty area and have only improved under Emery. In his four matches in charge, Aston Villa have only conceded 4.5 xG, which is incredibly impressive. The flip side of that is Villa have only created 4.5 xG as well. 

With how inept these two offenses are at generating high quality chances, I think we have a very low-event style match on our hands.

I have the no on BTTS projected at -150, so I like the value on the current line of -105.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (-105)