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Burnley 2018-19 Betting Preview: Regression Looms for Clarets

Burnley 2018-19 Premier League Betting Odds

  • To Win Title: +75000
  • To Be Relegated: +365
  • Point Total: 43.5 (Over -135/+115)

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No team surprised more in 2017-18 than Burnley. They didn’t do it in style, but the Clarets clinched a spot in the Europa League playoffs.

Sean Dyche’s side scored at a similar rate to that of teams such as Southampton (17th place) and Stoke City (19th place), but conceded goals on pace with the likes of Liverpool (third) and Chelsea (fifth). The major gap between Burnley and teams with similar outputs is incredibly alarming and warrants further investigation.

The key will be determining whether or not the rate in which Burnley scored and conceded goals was in line with their expected goals. According to Understat, Burnley’s expected goals against (xGA) was ~13 goals higher than their actual goals allowed, and their expected points total (xPTS) was ~13 points higher than their actual tally.

Even though they return most of their key players such as Robbie Brady, Ben Mee and James Tarkowski, Burnley didn’t add any firepower to a squad that was already lacking in scoring punch. Things aren’t looking all that great in the back either, as No. 1 goalkeeper Nick Pope injured his shoulder, and it appears he could be out a while.

If Burnley makes it to the group stage of the Europa League, their depth — or lack thereof — will be put to the test. Adding midweek fixtures into the schedule could spell trouble for the Clarets in the Premier League.

The Bet to Watch

After everything went right for Burnley last season, the opposite seems true heading into 2018-19. Unfortunately, the betting markets were ready for this, and there’s not a ton of value with Burnley right now. I do like under 43.5 points, especially with Burnley advancing in the Europa League.

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