Atletico Madrid (1-1-0) and Arsenal (2-0-0) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EDT at Emirates Stadium in London, England.
Arsenal is favored at a -165 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-110o / -125u) goals.
Let's get into my Atlético vs. Arsenal prediction.
Atlético vs. Arsenal Prediction
Pick: Arsenal to Win & Under 4.5 Goals (-133)
My best bet for Atlético vs. Arsenal is a parlay that expects a Gunners win and less than five total goals.
Atlético vs. Arsenal Odds
| Atlético Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +125 | 2.5 -110o / -125u | +450 |
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -185 | 2.5 -110o / -125u | -165 |
Atlético vs. Arsenal Pick
Best Bet: Arsenal to Win & Under 4.5 Goals (-133)
Arsenal has made an excellent start to the season and continues to boast one of the best defensive records in Europe. Mikel Arteta has a physically strong team that is capable of keeping the visitors at bay, so we are backing them to win a match that sees four goals or fewer as part of our Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid predictions.
The Gunners qualified for the semi-finals of the Champions League last season, where they were beaten by the eventual winners, PSG. Defensive solidity was a key part of Arsenal’s success. In fact, since the start of the 2024/25 campaign, Arsenal has conceded just 0.62 goals per game in this competition.
Arteta’s team is even more formidable at home, winning six of their last eight Champions League matches to nil. As a result, this selection has won in all of those victories. Atletico Madrid will provide a stern test, but Arsenal will be confident of securing all three points. The goals part of this bet shouldn’t be an issue, given just how strong this Gunners’ defense is.
Atletico Madrid has reached the Champions League final on two occasions under Diego Simeone, but the team's recent away form in this competition leaves a lot to be desired. They have played 14 European away matches since the start of the 2022/23 season, winning just four and losing eight. Arsenal ranks amongst the best they have faced during that dismal run.
Los Colchoneros’ last Champions League away match was a 3-2 defeat against Liverpool. The Reds stormed to a two-goal lead, but allowed the visitors back into the game.
Arsenal have been far more defensively sound than Arne Slot’s team in the opening months of the season, so expect them to concede fewer opportunities, making for a lower-scoring game.
Atlético vs. Arsenal Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Atlético | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 17.9% | 22.7% | 59.3% |
Projected Total Goals
| Atlético | Total Goals | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 0.78 | 2.48 | 1.70 |
Atlético vs. Arsenal Betting Analysis
With six points from their opening two fixtures, Arsenal is riding high, thanks in part to Gabriel Martinelli's crucial goals and the reliable shot-stopping of David Raya.
As during the first match in Bilbao, its recent victory over Olympiacos also showcased the ability to capitalize late on with Bukayo Saka's stoppage-time goal, sealing the result.
Atletico Madrid is preparing for a challenging visit to England once more, having suffered a stoppage-time 3-2 defeat against Liverpool on matchday one.
However, Los Colchoneros bounced back with a 5-1 victory over Frankfurt, highlighted by the performances of Antoine Griezmann and Giuliano Simeone.
The Gunners have an impressive home record, having won their last 14 UEFA group stage matches, and the Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid odds favor a home win at -175.
Atlético vs. Arsenal Projected Starting Lineups
Atlético
Oblak; Llorente, Le Normand, Lenglet, Hancko; G. Simeone; Barrios, Koke, N. González; Sorloth, J. Álvarez.
Arsenal
Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Odegard, Zubimendi, Merino; Martinelli, Gyokeres, Trossard
