With just two games under their belts, shocked favorites still have a long way to patch up their season while surprising underdogs will want to keep their gains close.
With nine games on the schedule this week, our staff has come up clutch with five picks. Continue reading for our UEFA Champions League best bets for Tuesday, October 21.
UEFA Champions League Best Bets
The club logos in the table below represent each match that our soccer betting staff is targeting from today's games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our soccer Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. |
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen has just two points after as many matches. Kasper Hjulmand's team could only manage a 1-1 draw at home to PSV in their last European game, despite creating the same number of big chances as its opponents. PSG represents a significant step-up in class, so the visitor’s odds on the 1x2 market appeal.
Les Parisiens have played 14 European games in 2025, including the Super Cup, winning 11 (in normal time). During that run, they have scored an average of 2.86 goals per game and conceded just 0.86. Both defeats came against Liverpool and Aston Villa, where they advanced despite those losses.
PSG beat Barcelona away from home in their last Champions League outing. They were missing key players in both midfield and attack. Luis Enrique is likely to have Khvicha Kvaratskhelia available here, boosting his team's chances even further. However, the French side is capable of winning this one, regardless of personnel.
Pick: PSG To Win (-164)
Borussia Dortmund vs. F.C. København
Based on the underlying data alone, Dortmund has drastically improved under Niko Kovac. Before playing Der Klassiker, they were averaging 2.0 goals domestically, while only conceding 0.7 goals per game. With four clean sheets from six games in the Bundesliga, Dortmund is among the best defensive teams in the league.
Dortmund can be clinical in attack too. It has scored four goals in both its Champions League games, and the high goal-scoring trend is set to continue with the hosts conceding on average 1.4 goals in their domestic league.
Although København managed a 2-2 draw against Leverkusen, their inconsistency remains evident. Their 2-0 loss to Qarabag highlights its susceptibility to conceding under pressure. Overall, Dortmund's consistent form, combined with their offensive and defensive skills, positions them favorably to secure a win.
Pick: Dortmund To Win (-105)
Napoli vs. PSV Eindhoven
PSV has home advantage, but it has struggled in its recent European games despite displaying plenty of attacking intent. Their 2024 campagin saw both teams score in all eight of those matches, but the Dutch side has won just three. During that run, PSV has scored an average of 1.75 goals per game and conceded 2.5.
Napoli was narrowly beaten by Torino at the weekend, but it beat Sporting CP 2-1 in its last game in this competition. Conte’s teams are known for their defensive solidity, but Napoli has struggled to keep clean sheets this season. The team has conceded in its last seven competitive matches. In nine competitive matches thus far, Napoli has scored an average of 1.56 goals per game and conceded 1.11.
Therefore, the stats suggest that the price on an away win with both teams finding the net is a little generous.
Pick: Napoli To Win & BTS – Yes (+300)
Inter Milan vs. Union Saint-Gilloise
Inter kicked off the European season with a 2-0 win against Ajax away, even if the underlying data shows some struggles, with the Italians losing the xG battle. In the next round we saw the Nerrazzuri completely dominate the game, allowing opposition just 0.11 expected goals.
Despite playing away from home, we can expect the Italian defense to play a crucial role here. Royal Union created an abundance of chances against Newcastle, taking a total of 17 shots and six on target, but ultimately failed to score.
The chances of scoring here become even less probable, considering Inter’s defense is among the best in Europe at the moment. The lack of an offensive edge for the hosts could cost them all points. Of the total 2.81 estimated goals, the Belgians are expected to account for 0.92. Regardless of the hosts’ ability to score, Inter must secure crucial points before a series of challenging fixtures.
Pick: Inter To Win (-149)
S.L. Benfica vs. Newcastle United
Benfica has struggled in recent outings against English teams. With Jose Mourinho at the helm, are struggling to translate their domestic success into Europe. Benfica was priced as a heavy favorite in the opener against Qarabag, and after taking a 2-0 lead, managed to lose 3-2.
At the same time, Newcastle may have lost 2-1 to Barcelona at home, but put up a big fight. Edie Howe’s team not only won the xG (expected goals) battle but also had a decent chance at earning a draw. The Magpies quickly bounced back with a 4-0 away win against Royal Union SG.
The fortress-like atmosphere at St. James' Park amplifies Newcastle's strengths and has historically posed a challenge for visiting teams. Benfica was already tested against a Premier League side in the last round. Moruinho’s team produced 0.85 xG and failed to score. We can expect a similar outcome again.