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Chelsea vs Bournemouth Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Chelsea vs Bournemouth Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview article feature image
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Vincent Mignott/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Raheem Sterling of Chelsea.

  • Chelsea look to turn around their Premier League season as heavy favorites against Bournemouth.
  • The Blues entered the World Cup break period in terrible form.
  • Should you back them to switch it up? Read on for BJ Cunningham's match analysis.

Chelsea vs. Bournemouth Odds

Tuesday, Dec. 27
12:30 p.m. ET
USA Network
Chelsea Odds -275
Bournemouth Odds +700
Draw +425
Over/Under 2.5 (-163 / +130)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (-106/ -125)
Odds via bet365. Get up to the minute soccer odds here.

Chelsea will look for drastic improvements after the World Cup break when they host Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge.

Before the World Cup break, Chelsea were in dreadful form, losing three straight matches in the Premier League, and they now find themselves in eighth place in the table. Graham Potter was supposed to turn things around, but so far things have actually gotten worse at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea still have a ton of injuries to deal with so things may not get better in the short term.

Bournemouth were an overwhelming favorites to get relegated, but so far they’ve been proving doubters wrong. The Cherries are in 14th place and are coming off of a 3-0 thumping of Everton right before the break. They are going to make this fixture tough for Chelsea.

Will Chelsea Experience a Sharp Turnaround? 

Chelsea are going to turn a corner at some point under Graham Potter, but let’s not forget how terrible they were playing going into the World Cup break. 

Since Potter has taken over Chelsea, the Blues have a -3.2 xGD and in their last six matches in the Premier League before the break they lost the xG battle when removing penalties.

Chelsea will likely still struggle to turn final third possession into high quality chances because they currently don’t have a go-to striker. In terms of progressive passes and dribbles, box entries and xThreat, Chelsea are in the top six in all of those categories, but they have taken the fewest shots inside the six-yard box and they’re outside the top 10 big scoring chances.

Then you take a look at the Chelsea injury report, and it did not get better over the break. As it currently stands, N’Golo Kante, Armando Broja and Wesley Fofona are all out for this match, while Reece James, Ben Chillwell and Cesar Azpilicueta are all questionable.

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Bournemouth Set Up to Provide Chelsea Issues

Bournemouth are finishing at a ridiculous rate right now, but this match sets up perfectly for their direct counterattacking style and their offense has gotten a lot better since the beginning of the season. Over their last nine matches they have created 9 xG and 11 big scoring chances, so they’re not the worst offense in the Premier League. 

Defensively they are in the bottom half of the PL, but they’ve done a good job preventing high quality chances. The Cherries are ninth in the Premier League in big scoring chances allowed and have only allowed their opponents to create just seven over the past 10 matches.

Gary O’Neill has his side set up in a low block and counter style. The Cherries are getting the field tilted on them at 31.09% and are playing the fourth-lowest average defensive line. They are also top five in direct speed along with bottom five in 10-plus pass sequences, per theanalyst.com.

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Chelsea vs. Bournemouth Pick

Bournemouth are going to sit deep, concede a ton of possession to Chelsea and allow them to tilt the field. However, Chelsea failed to break down low blocks prior to the World Cup break, amassing no more than 1.1 xG in a match against a low block.

Also, Bournemouth went to Newcastle at the end of September and Newcastle closed at -250. Now we have Chelsea, who just got dominated by Newcastle before the break and have looked awful under Potter at -315.

That’s a wild line, and I only have Chelsea projected at -175, so I love the value on Bournemouth +1.5 at -106.

Pick: Bournemouth +1.5 (-106)

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