England vs. Scotland Euro 2020 Odds, Pick, Betting Prediction: Take Three Lions to Cruise (June 18)

England vs. Scotland Euro 2020 Odds, Pick, Betting Prediction: Take Three Lions to Cruise (June 18) article feature image
Credit:

Eddie Keogh – The FA/The FA via Getty Images. Pictured: England standout Raheem Sterling, center, gets mobbed by his teammates after scoring a goal.

  • England is a big favorite over Scotland in a battle for United Kingdom supremacy in Euro 2020 group play (3 p.m. ET, ESPN).
  • The Three Lions are more than 3-1 favorites against the Scots at Wembley Stadium after winning their first match of the tournament.
  • Jeremy Pond explains his England vs. Scotland pick in a full betting preview below.

England vs. Scotland Odds

England Odds -315
Scotland Odds +950
Draw +440
Over/Under 2.5 (-112 / -108)
Day | Time Friday | 3 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds updated Thursday evening via DraftKings.

Soccer in the United Kingdom gets an absolute firecracker of a match Friday when England faces rival Scotland in Euro 2020 action at Wembley Stadium.

The Three Lions, who are unbeaten in their last seven games across all competitions, opened Group D play with a business-like 1-0 victory over a tough Croatia side. In contrast, the Scots suffered a disappointing 2-0 loss against Czech Republic.

It goes without saying this is a massive showdown for both nations. England has dominated proceedings of late, going unbeaten in its last four meetings with Scotland. This will be the first matchup between the countries since 2018 when they played to a surprising 2-2 draw.

Things will obviously be rocking on the hallowed grounds of Wembley, so let’s see where the betting value sits and if England is worthy of being a more than 3-1 favorite against Scotland.

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England Looking for Repeat Effort Against Rival

The Three Lions looked good in their debut against Croatia, but will surely be looking to put together more high-quality chances against Scotland.

England had a few opportunities to break through for goals in the opening half, but simply couldn’t finish off its chances. Thankfully for the Three Lions, Raheem Sterling’s goal in the 57th minute wound up being more than enough against a Croatian side who should rebound with a win of its against Czech Republic.

Manager Gareth Southgate’s side did have the better run of things in that opening win, but finished with just 0.9 expected goals, according to FBref.com. And when you have the likes of Sterling, Harry Kane, Phil Foden, Marcus Rashford and Mason Mount at your disposal, you better be unhappy finishing with just one goal.

However, I think the lack of scoring was more due to the fact Croatia utilized a defensive-minded game plan that almost worked. Now, England faces a lesser opponent — both offensively and defensively — and will look to pile on the pressure in Scotland’s defensive third of the pitch.

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Scotland Dominates Statistics in Disappointing Defeat

If you were manager Steve Clarke and the Scots, you would have walked away from that gutting defeat against Czech Republic with your head in your hands.

Outside of the scoreline, Scotland dominated its opponent everywhere on the pitch in a losing cause. The Scots won the battle of expected goals, holding a 1.8-0.9 edge in the advanced metric. They also wound up with a 17-10 advantage in shots, as well as holding a 56%-44% margin in possession.

Scotland’s players, especially goalkeeper David Marshall, probably had nightmares about striker Patrik Schick and his performance in the Czech’s win. Schick opened the scoring in the 42nd minute, giving his country a 1-0 lead at the half.

However, it was his shot from the center of the pitch some 50-plus yards away that eluded an out-of-position Marshall seven minutes into the second half that sealed the Czech Republic’s victory.

Now, Scotland faces a must-win situation against its fierce rival at one of the most legendary sports venues on the planet. Clarke will have to get more out of Lyndon Dykes and hopefully Che Adams, who deserves a start in this affair. I don’t expect the Scots to get a ton of quality chances, so if one falls their way they must take advantage of it to have any chance at an upset.

Betting Analysis & Pick

This is a mismatch on paper and will be a mismatch when England and Scotland step on the Wembley Stadium turf. The Three Lions are going to win this game. The only question is by how many goals.

There’s no way I’m playing England at -315 odds on the three-way moneyline, nor am I interested in Southgate’s side as a goal favorite at -225 odds either. So, I will take things out a little further and back the Three Lions to cover -1.25 on the Asian handicap at -141 as my top pick.

I will probably sprinkle a little on England -1.5 (-106) and England -1.75 (+125) when the rosters are officially announced, but for now I will settle on the current play and play it up to -145 odds.

If you’re looking for a player prop. I’m on Harry Kane to score anytime in the match at -103 odds. The nation’s top striker would love to open his Euro 2020 account in this ultra-exciting affair, so I’m taking a shot with the Tottenham Hotspur standout to find the back of the net.

Pick: England -1.25 (-141) | Harry Kane To Score Anytime — Yes (-103)

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