European Soccer Best Bets, Projected Odds & Forecast for Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1, More (Nov. 19-22)

European Soccer Best Bets, Projected Odds & Forecast for Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1, More (Nov. 19-22) article feature image
Credit:

Alex Grimm/Getty Images. Pictured: Mainz standouts Alexander Hack, left, and Silvan Widmer.

European club football returns from the international break this week, but before players shipped off to represent their countries, there was some chaos outside of the Premier League.

German side RB Leipzig notched a huge 2-1 win over Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga action. In Serie A, Juventus needed a stoppage-time goal to beat Fiorentina in the Italian top flight.

And most notably, Barcelona blew a three-goal lead on the road at Celta Vigo, which kept the Spanish giant in ninth place in the La Liga table.

CELTA VIGO COME BACK FROM THREE DOWN AGAINST BARCELONA 😲😲😲 pic.twitter.com/pAwCYDHfDz

— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) November 6, 2021

This weekend is headlined by a huge Serie A match, as league leader Napoli hosts defending champion Inter Milan, who currently trails them by seven points. There is also a pair of intriguing Ligue 1 encounters in France, with Lille hosting Monaco on Friday and Lyon taking on Marseille in Sunday’s action.

Even though we’re only a quarter of a way through the season, the Italian and Spanish first divisions look completely up for grabs, while Ligue 1 powerhouse Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich (Bundesliga) look like they’re running away in their respective domestic leagues.

If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Bundesliga Projections

Best Bets

Augsburg vs. Bayern Munich

Augsburg Odds +1300
Bayern Munich Odds -600
Draw +700
Over/Under 3.5 (-145 / +115)
Day | Time Friday | 2:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here

Bayern Munich’s numbers right now are out of this world in a good way.

The Bavarians are averaging 3.37 expected goals per match through their first 11 Bundesliga fixtures. And I’ll be honest, I don’t think I’ve ever seen an average that high this deep into the season in the xG era. So, obviously Bayern is No. 1 in every offensive metric and will be going up against one of the league’s worst teams, so this could get really ugly.

2021-2022 🇩🇪 Bundesliga xG Difference Leaders

Bayern Munich (23.2)
RB Leipzig (8.5)
Dortmund (6.2)
M'Gladbach (5.9)
Mainz 05 (4.1)
Wolfsburg (3.7)
Hoffenheim (2.2)
Leverkusen (0.3)
Freiburg (-0.4)
Köln (-1.0)https://t.co/JKflCVHjxr

— ⚽️FBref.com⚽️ (@fbref) November 16, 2021

Augsburg is allowing 1.89 NPxG per game, which is 17th in the Bundesliga. They’re also 16th in shots allowed per 90 minutes and conceded more than three xG to Dortmund, Mainz and Freiburg this season.

So, what do you think Bayern Munich is going to do? 

Defensively, Bayern Munich has been much better with Dayot Upamecano and Niklas Sule as their center-back pairing. The Bavarians only allowed 8.98 xG through their first 11 matches, which is an improvement from last season when Bayern it yielded 1.14 xG per outing. That said, manager Julian Naglesmann has his team playing like the best in the world at the moment.

I have Bayern Munich’s spread projected at -2.27, so I think there’s some value on them at -2.5 (+120) on DraftKings and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Bayern Munich -2.5 (+120)

Mainz vs. Köln

Mainz Odds +115
Köln Odds +230
Draw +265
Over/Under 2.5 (-145 / +115)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
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Mainz is having a fantastic, resurgent season and even though they’re currently in seventh place, they’re metrics are way better than the results they’ve been getting thus far.

Mainz is second in the Bundesliga behind only the Bavarians with a +8.02 NPxGDiff through 11 matches. The reason for that is because defensively they’re only allowing 1.05 NPxG, which is third in the German top flight behind Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg.

The dictionary definition of top bins 🔖🤓

📹 Enjoy all the angles of Silvan #Widmer's exquisite equaliser 🍿#mainz05 #M05BMG pic.twitter.com/27U1xWPWQn

— Mainz 05 English (@Mainz05en) November 11, 2021

Mainz is also fourth in shots allowed per 90 minutes and have conceded just seven big scoring chances, which is the best mark in Germany. They’re facing a Köln side that is second in shots per 90 and third in penalty area entries. However, considering they’ve held six of their 11 opponents under one xG and Köln’s main center attacking midfielder — Mark Uth — in their 4-1-3-2 system is out, I think Mainz will be able to shut them down.

Defensively, Köln has been really struggling with allowing high quality chances. They’re 16th in NPxG allowed, mainly due to the fact that they’ve yielded 25 big scoring chances already, which is a problem against a Mainz offense that’s creating 1.63 xG per match and already has 23 big scoring chances.

I have Mainz projected at -145, so I think there’s plenty of value on them at +115 odds at this price.

Pick: Mainz ML (+115)


Serie A Projections

Best Bets

Lazio vs. Juventus

Lazio Odds +195
Juventus Odds +140
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / +105)
Day | Time Saturday | 12 p.m. ET
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Juventus is starting to turn a corner in Serie A play. Before the break, they got a deserved late winner against Fiorentina and do have a +5.8 NPxGD through 12 matches. However, they’re currently sitting in eighth place. Meanwhile, Lazio has a -0.04 NPxGDiff and is somehow in fifth place.

Juventus has big advantages against a Lazio defense that has been torched every single time they’ve faced a decent opponent. Against AC Milan, Roma and Inter Lazio, they allowed a combined 8.27 xG in those matches. Juventus is fourth in xG, plus they’ve created 20 this season. Unfortunately, The Old Lady on only has 16 actual goals, so they’re due for some positive regression.

Juventus is also second in big scoring chances and fifth in crosses completed into the area, while Lazio has allowed the third-most crosses completed into their own area. Lazio is also one of the worst pressing teams in Italy, as they’re 19th in pressure success rate, while Juventus is above average versus pressure, per fbref.com.

Defensively, The Old Lady has been solid. The club is fourth in xG allowed, fifth in big scoring chances allowed and third in pressure success rate, while the Lazio offense is entirely built on quality chances because their fourth in big scoring chances, but 14th in shots per 90 minutes.

I have Juventus projected at +125, so I think there is some value on them at +140 odds in this meeting.


La Liga Projections

Best Bets

Atlético Madrid vs. Osasuna

Atlético Madrid Odds -250
Osasuna Odds +750
Draw +360
Over/Under 2.5 (+110 / -130)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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This is going to be a battle between two of the best defensive teams in Spain.

Atlético Madrid is still playing out of their patented 4-4-2 formation under manager Diego Simone and have been the top defensive side in the Spanish top flight, allowing 8.79 NPxG through 12 matches. What’s even crazier is they’re not allowing their opponents to create anything from open play.

Los Colchoneros have allowed 13 goals this season, with only five coming from open play. They’ve had some bad penalty luck, giving up three penalties. And they’re due for some positive regression on set pieces, because they’ve conceded five set-piece goals off of only 3.04 xG thus far.

So, going up against a Osasuna side that has provided very little going forward this season (0.89 NPxG per match) should help them keep a clean sheet.

Osasuna has been a really good on defense, allowing 0.96 NPxG per match. Osasuna is also fifth in big scoring chances allowed, ninth in shots per 90 minutes allowed and third in ball recoveries. That said, they should be able to hold an Atlético Madrid offense that has been far from elite in check.

I only have 1.91 goals projected for this contest, so there’s value on the total staying under 2.5 goals at -130 odds.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-130)


Getafe vs. Cádiz

Getafe Odds -105
Cádiz Odds +350
Draw +220
Over/Under 1.5 (-170/ +135)
Day | Time Sunday | 8 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here

This line makes no sense to me.

Getafe is the worst offensive team — not just in Spain — but maybe in all of Europe. They play out of a very defensive 4-4-2 formation and so far this season, they’ve created 6.71 NxG through 13 matches. That’s a 0.52 average and we’re six games away from the halfway point of the season.

So, it’s no surprise they’re dead last in big scoring chances and box entries, but they’re also the worst team against pressure in La Liga and are 17th in ball recoveries allowed. Now, Cádiz hasn’t been great on defense, but their third PPDA and fourth in ball recoveries, so I have a hard time seeing how Getafe is going to string together enough passes to even create a high quality chance.

Teams that are as defensive as Getafe usually rely on set pieces to score their goals, but this side has been the worst offensive set-piece team in Spain thus far They’ve had 45 set pieces and created 2.37 total xG, which is a 0.05 xG per set-piece average. 

Cádiz isn’t a good offensive team. They’re 17th in NPxG; 18th in shots per 90 minutes; and, 18th in big scoring chances. However, Getafe is bottom five in pretty much every defensive metric as well, which is why they have a -11.34 xGD through only 13 matches. 

Yet, somehow they’re +100 favorites, which I think is crazy. I only have Getafe projected at +138, so I love Cádiz +0.5 (-115) and will make it my top selection. 

Pick: Cadiz +0.5 (-115)


Ligue 1 Projections

Best Bets

Lille vs. Monaco

Monaco Odds +110
Lille Odds +265
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (+105 / -120)
Day | Time Friday | 3 p.m. ET
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This is going to be a slugfest between clubs due for a ton of positive regression on the defensive end of things.

Defensively, Lille has been terribly unlucky all season long. The defending Ligue 1 champion has only allowed their opponents to create 13.36 xG, but conceded 19 actual goals. Even in their seven away games, Lille is only allowing 0.90 xG per outing. Lille is also second in big scoring chances allowed and first in crosses completed into their own penalty area, per fbref.com.

Monaco is really struggling to create chances going forward, as they’re 11th in npxG; 18th in shots per 90 minutes; and, 11th in big scoring chances. That’s a huge drop off from last season when they averaged 1.85 xG per match.

However, the Monaco defense has kept them afloat. Simply put, they’ve been the best in France. Monaco is only allowing 0.85 NPxG per match and ranks first in shot allowed per 90 minutes, box entries conceded and first in box entries allowed. They’re also the best pressing team, ranking first in PPDA and pressure success rate, while Lille has been below average versus pressure.

I only have 1.89 goals projected for this contest, so there’s value on the total staying under 2.5 goals at -120 odds.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-120)


Strasbourg vs. Reims 

Strasbourg Odds +100
Reims Odds +310
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (+135 / -165)
Day | Time Saturday | 9 a.m. ET
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After being one of the most unlucky Ligue 1 teams last season, plus the fact it sold both starting center backs, Strasbourg has rebounded really nicely this season. They’ve been good offensively averaging 1.52 xG per match and rank No. 1 in Ligue 1 in big scoring chances, creating 25 so far.

Now, Reims has been a good defensive team this season. They’re top seven in NPxG allowed, shots conceded per 90 minutes and big scoring chances yielded. However, they’re 15th in crosses completed into their own penalty area and that’s a problem in this matchup, due to the fact that’s how Strasbourg creates a lot of their chances. 

Strasbourg plays out of a 5-3-2 formation, so what happens most of the time is they play the ball out wide to their wingbacks going forward and they’ll send crosses into the box. Needless to say, they’ve done it effectively, completing the second-most crosses into the area. Strasbourg has been in incredible form at home, putting up a 5.61 NPxGD in only seven games, per understat.com

Reims is the worst offensive team in France and it’s why they’re sitting in 16th place. The club is last in NPxG, as they’ve only created 11.27 through 13 fixtures. They’re 18th in big scoring chances and last in crosses completed into the penalty area.

The biggest problem they have is they’re one of the worst teams in Ligue 1 against pressure. Reims is last in Offensive PPDA and 15th in pressure success rate allowed, while Strasbourg is a middle-of-the-road pressing team.

I have Strasbourg projected at -133 odds, so I think there’s some value on them at +100 via DraftKings to get all three points.

Pick: Strasbourg ML (+100)

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